Videos by OutKick
This is my mea culpa to ESPN Analytics. Last week, I wrote an article ripping them for giving the Boston Celtics a 65% chance of coming back from down 0-2 to beat the Miami Heat in the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference finals.
It wasn’t just me. Most of NBA Twitter clowned ESPN Analytics for giving the Celtics nearly coin-flip odds after losing the 1st two games of the conference finals at home. ESPN doubled down on its read that Boston was the much better team.
Once down 0-3, ESPN Analytics held the line and gave the Celtics a 31.0% chance to come back on Miami. Oddsmakers made Boston’s series odds roughly +700 after falling to 0-3. This has an implied win probability of 12.5%.
I mean, teams up 3-0 in a best-of-seven NBA playoff series are 150-0 all-time. The Heat couldn’t possibly, lose right? Well, “not so fast my friend,” says the Celtics.
ESPN’S RICHARD JEFFERSON DELIVERS INSANE PREDICTION, SAYS BOSTON CELTICS WILL DEFEAT MIAMI, BECOME FIRST TEAM TO OVERCOME 3-0 DEFICIT
Boston evened the conference finals 3-3 Saturday with a Game 6 victory in Miami off of a miraculous game-winning putback by Celtics SG Derrick White as time expired.
I was firmly in the camp of “the Heat won’t lose this series.” And I kind of still am. The Celtics tried to choke away Game 6 and they have been terrible at home in these playoffs.
Perhaps I’m guilty of using the same brain-dead logic as the sports bettor below. Here is ‘nightmare fuel’ of a sports bettor taking off the rubber-band to bet Miami (-1100) to win this series.
You need to bet $1,100 to win $100 for Miami to advance to the 2023 NBA Finals. This is a bet I’d never endorse in team sports almost regardless of the situation.
That said, it would’ve been wise to heed ESPN Analytics’ advice following Game 3. Boston’s odds to win to beat Miami after falling to 0-3 were +750.
If we bet the Celtics +750 earlier then we’d have great middle and hedge spots. The Heat are getting +7.5 in Game 7 at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday afternoon and their moneyline is +265.
Ahhh well. It sucks sitting on the sideline for a possibly nice score. But, it’s going to be even worse if the Celtics come back from down 3-0. I might retire from betting sports this summer like the dude in that TikTok video.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.