Ryan Glasspiegel
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Here are the latest rankings from the College Football Playoff selection committee:
1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Clemson
4. Ohio State
5. Texas A&M
6. Iowa State (up 1)
7. Florida (down 1)
8. Georgia (up 1)
9. Cincinnati (down 1)
10. Oklahoma (up 1)
11. Indiana (up 1)
12. Coastal Carolina (up 1)
13. USC (up 2)
14. Northwestern
15. UNC (up 2)
16. Iowa
17. BYU (up 1)
18. Miami (down 8)
19. ULL
20. Texas
21. OK State
22. NC State
23. Tulsa (up 1)
24. San Jose State (NR)
25. Colorado (down 4)
The Pac-12 is effectively finished. USC only moved up to No. 13, which means no way they can leapfrog to No. 4. Beating a 3-2 Oregon team is not going to be impressive enough to jump that high. USC has been punished much more than Ohio State for playing the same number of games.
Mayyybeee there’s a chance for Iowa State. There would need to be a whole lot of catastrophe in front of them. Alabama is in. Notre Dame is in, unless they get blown out by Clemson like Ohio State once beat Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big Ten title game. Iowa State could plausibly get in with a win over Oklahoma and losses by both Clemson and Ohio State.
It’s pretty wild that Florida only dropped one spot after losing the LS-Shoe game. If they beat Alabama, which is highly unlikely, it’s possible but doubtful that they could eke into the playoffs with two losses. However, if Oklahoma beats Iowa State, the Iowa State path happens, and Tennessee beats Texas A&M, then the Gators have a chance.
Texas A&M has several plausible paths. They need to beat Tennessee and have just one of the following to happen:
– Notre Dame beats Clemson
– Clemson CRUSHES Notre Dame.
– Northwestern beats Ohio State
– The committee chooses Texas A&M over Ohio State (in my opinion unlikely)
Everyone excited for championship Saturday?
Ohio State is little more than a wedding crasher. They didn’t have to go through a 9 – 11 game schedule to get this ranking. I would take Iowa State or Texas A&M long before putting OSU in the final four.
Ryan, just curious as to what your logic is on the Florida analysis. Why would Florida need ALL of that to happen? It seems very straight forward to me – if Florida beats Alabama (and that’s a BIG IF), they get into the Playoff if Clemson OR OSU lose. That’s all they would need to happen.
If Florida beats Alabama, they definitely leap frog Iowa State (even if Iowa State wins). There’s no way the committee keeps a 9-2 SEC Champion that beat the consensus #1 team in the country behind a B12 Champion with the same record. Further, Florida would also jump Texas AM (even if TAM beats Tennessee). I know TAM has the head to head (and would have a .5 game better record), but Florida would be SEC Champs, again, with a win against Alabama. Would the committee really rank the SEC Champ behind a team that did not even play in the game? I think not – this would make no sense. So without anything out of the ordinary otherwise happening, Florida, if they beat Bama, will be ranked at least as high as #5. Hence, if Clemson OR OSU stumble, Florida is in. Seems pretty clear cut to me.
And honestly, comparing resumes of a 9-2 SEC Champ UF with a win over #1 Alabama and two close losses vs. a 6-0 B10 Champ OSU with best wins against crap ass Indiana and Northwestern, you got to think Florida has a good argument to jump OSU. I don’t think the committee will keep OSU out if they win the B10, but if they had any balls, they’d take a good look at the team that played 11 games and won the best conference in America in the most challenging year in NCAA history.