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Outkick’s Week 3 Gambling Picks

Last week we went 5-5 — but at least the blood bank guarantee hit — running our season record to 10-11. Mediocre at best, no doubt.

It’s time to get hot.

On the positive side, we’ve managed to be white hot with the first three weeks of the Outkick Six Pack of Picks in the NFL. I give these out on Twitter and my Outkick radio show which you should go subscribe to here.

This week, I have 12 winners for you.

As always, you get a special deposit bonus with FanDuel if you go sign up here: fanduel.com/clay

Right now you can gamble with FanDuel in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Illinois and Iowa. But, and this is key, Michigan and Tennessee are both going to start allowing online sports gambling in the next couple of weeks. So if you go ahead and sign up now, they will notify you when sports gambling is officially legal in your state, and you’ll be good to go. So go sign up today.

You’ll notice that this week there were a lot of line moves, particularly because of the hurricane potentially impacting games on Saturday. So the first number is the one I posted for our VIPs on the message board Monday, and the second number is the current number as I’m writing this on Wednesday. I’m posting my gambling picks on Monday afternoons now on the Outkick VIP message board, and then we post them for everyone to see on Wednesday around noon. You can go sign up for the Outkick VIP here.

Here we go with 12 winners, for you, #respectthepicks

Tennessee +14 (buy the half point) at Georgia now Tennessee +12.5

Look, I absolutely love this pick.

Tap the vein boys and girls, it’s my 100% blood bank guarantee.

Fourteen points is just way, way too many in a physical, defensive struggle like I’m expecting to see. I’d even sprinkle some money on Tennessee with the money line. This is a touchdown game, and I think both teams will have a chance to win come the fourth quarter.

Tennessee has one of their best offensive lines in the past twenty years and two solid running backs behind that line. Jarrett Guarantano has proven himself to be capable of playing exceedingly well and exceedingly poorly. If he plays exceedingly well in this game, Tennessee will win. If he plays exceedingly poorly, Georgia will win. If he plays somewhere in between, this game will be a toss up in the fourth quarter.

It’s a sign of the improvement that Jeremy Pruitt has created in the Tennessee program that the Vols are now capable of winning games against good opponents if they play well, not just if their opponents play poorly.

I see this as a low scoring, physical battle that comes down to turnovers and the kicking game. The Georgia defense is outstanding, and they don’t have to take risks on offense. Which is good for them because I don’t think this offense can consistently score in the thirties.

That means Georgia wants to win something like 24-14.

But the over/under has fallen to such an extent that I think the value is gone there, but I suspect this line is going to settle around 10 or 11 by the time of kickoff.

Which is why it’s a blood bank guarantee in Athens, the Vols are covering. (And maybe winning outright).

Duke at Syracuse +2.5 now Syracuse +2.5

My boy Dino Babers is being thoroughly disrespected here.

Duke hasn’t won a single game all season — they’ve played four straight weeks, and they’ve got four straight losses by seven or more points — and they are favored on the road at Syracuse? Say what? This is insanity. The wrong team is favored here.

Syracuse is going to win this game outright, just like they won outright as a home dog against Georgia Tech two weeks ago.

Take Syracuse plus the points or on the money line.

Trust in Dino, cha ching.

Oklahoma vs. Texas, over 72, now 72.5

Oklahoma and Texas should be 0-4 in the Big 12.

Instead Texas Tech collapsed and as a result the teams are only 1-3 because Texas stole a win.

But neither of them have a defense at all.

Look at the point totals in their four Big 12 games so far. Texas has had 119 and 64 points scored in their two games. Oklahoma has had 73 and 67 scored.

And you’re telling me that two teams that are pretty much guaranteed to score 30 or more are going to suddenly hit the under?

No way, no how.

Guns up, points up, the over’s the play.

Mississippi State at Kentucky, over 59.5, now 58

Kentucky is staring down the barrel of a third straight loss this season. If that happens then the Wildcats are in truly desperate straits because their next seven games are: at Tennessee, Georgia, at Missouri, Vanderbilt, at Alabama, at Florida, South Carolina.

So, yeah, if Kentucky loses to Mississippi State, they are probably starting 0-5 and then the best case scenario for the season is probably 3-7. (That would presume wins at Missouri and over Vanderbilt and South Carolina at home, and winning those three might be generous). This should be a desperate bunch of Wildcats.

Meanwhile, we’ve already seen Mississippi State put up a penthouse performance — beating LSU on the road — and an outhouse performance — losing to Arkansas at home — on the season.

Good luck trying to predict what you’ll see from the Bulldogs this weekend in Lexington.

But I tend to think we’ll see the Bulldog offense reemerge, and if that happens then the over feels like a very good play here.

The line is basically even on this game as well, so don’t worry about who wins and just enjoy the offensive pyrotechnics in Lexington. (Also, remember Mike Leach loves Lexington and still has good friends there from his days back as an offensive coordinator at Kentucky. Meaning he’ll be excited to run it up if he can. This one should be fun).

Miami +14.5 at Clemson, now Miami +14

Is the U back?!

That’s the big question hanging over this game, whether the Hurricanes are going to fall flat on their face in a big game or whether they can go on the road and go toe-to-toe with a legit heavyweight opponent.

I’m not sure the U is back, but I definitely believe they can stay competitive with Clemson in this game. Especially because Clemson has been fairly mediocre — at least given the standard they’ve set in the ACC — so far this season.

But, boy, Clemson really does seem to relish these ACC games when opponents try to step to them, don’t they?

That has me a bit nervous, but I just think two touchdowns is way too many points.

Alabama at Ole Miss -24 and the over 74.5, now Alabama -24 and 70.5

This number has come plummeting down from nearly eighty points when the line opened, as the weather impact of Hurricane Delta has become more pronounced.

Right now, the expectation is for there to be a substantial amount of rain in Oxford.

But I still like the over here because I don’t think the Ole Miss defense can stop anyone, and I’d expect Lane Kiffin to still try and run the same offense that has been very successful so far against Florida and Kentucky.

The result? Lots of plays and lots of possessions.

I see Alabama hanging at least 52 on Ole Miss, who can’t stop anyone, and I think Ole Miss will score at least 24.

That’s 76 total points, which clears the over and also sets you up for a nice Tide cover.

Boom, a double win.

Florida at Texas A&M the over 58.5, now 56.5

I believe Kyle Trask will win the Heisman trophy this year, and I think there’s nothing this Aggie defense can do to stop him from having a big day in College Station.

But I also believe this Gator defense is a mess, which means we could have a track meet in Texas on Saturday.

The Gators have moved out to a touchdown favorite in this game, but I think that may well be too many points, as I expect the Aggies to score a decent amount too.

Which is why I’m hitting the over and enjoying all the Trask touchdown passes against A&M. After all, the Aggie defensive backs can’t be any worse than they were at Alabama.

Right?

Right?!

The over’s the play.

Florida State at Notre Dame -20, now Notre Dame -20.5

Florida State is a dumpster fire of a program right now, and I don’t think traveling up to South Bend is likely to cure what ails them.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame hasn’t played a game since September 19th, which means they are ready to roll. Yes, they may be a bit rusty at the outset, but the Florida State program has been rusty for several years now. So I’ll take the program that might be slow out of the gate over the program that hasn’t left the gate for years.

The Irish roll and cover with ease.

South Carolina at Vanderbilt, the under 47.5, now 41.5

This line has moved a ton since it opened, and if you bet it earlier this week, you’ve opened up a decent middle for yourself now.

Yes, there will be weather conditions in Nashville, but so far South Carolina has lost games 31-27 and 38-24, and I don’t think those weather conditions will be debilitating.

I feel good about South Carolina scoring 24 in this game, so the question for you is this: how many will Vanderbilt score?

So far, the Commodores have scored 12 against Texas A&M and seven against LSU.

That ain’t good.

I think they score 14 against South Carolina.

That puts us under the first number with ease, but pretty close to the second one. So be careful.

Missouri at LSU -20.5, now your bet is void because the game has moved to Columbia, MO and LSU is now -14 at Missouri

I like LSU even more, actually, on the road at Missouri at -14 than I did at home at -20.5.

Why?

Because there’s no way this should be a six-point line move based on field location. Remember, we’re talking about mediocre home field advantages this year, at best. If you liked LSU to win by nearly three touchdowns in Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, you should love them to win by two touchdowns in Columbia.

I do, however, like the move by Mizzou to put Connor Bazelak in as their quarterback. He’s been a far better option late in games than Shawn Robinson, and I think the Mizzou offense will have more success with him.

But I still think you should stick with LSU here to cover.

Arkansas +16.5 at Auburn, now Arkansas +14

Ah, the Razorbacks, fresh off a big win on the road against Mississippi State now head to Auburn, home of the ever inconsistent Tiger football team.

This bet is really about not believing in Gus Malzahn’s team this year. And believing that Sam Pittman has got his team fired up to play.

But this has been the one series that Auburn has consistently dominated of late.

Maybe it’s because Gus Malzhan is from Arkansas and has a particular animus for the Razorback program over his prior tenure there and during the time he coached at Arkansas State, but Gus has won the past four in this series by combined scores of 51-10, 34-3, 52-20 and 56-3. That’s an average margin of victory of 39.25 points per game over the past four in this series.

But does it make any sense at all that Auburn, one of the most consistently inconsistent programs in college football, would be completely reliable against Arkansas every year?

Not to me.

Which is why I’m hopping on the Razorbacks to cover.

There you have it, we’re going 12-0.

Get rich, kids!

Written by Clay Travis

Clay Travis is an author, radio show host, lawyer, TV analyst, and the founder of OutKick (formerly known as Outkick the Coverage).
Read More about Clay >>

4 Comments

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  1. Hrmm… respectfully disagree on a lot of these. I hope Tennessee makes the upset, but I just don’t see it with UGA’s amazing D. I also think Clemson finally has a reason to wake up and spanks the U. Really like the under in UK/Miss St. too. I do like the LSU play though.

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