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Okay, we’re starting to get on a bit of a roll with the Outkick picks here — we went 9-4 last weekend — with a couple of close losses in there as well — to post a winning record for a fourth straight week.
Our season record now stands at 75-68, for a 52.4% winning percentage, meaning you have officially won money on the year if you’ve bet every college football game I’ve told you to bet. (You’ve also won pretty good money with the blood bank guarantee this year even though it didn’t cash last week).
But even if you haven’t been a big gambler this year, you can win $10k of my money this week by playing Outkick’s free college football pick’em. I hope you all lose, but you can go make your picks here.
This will be the third year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks — or hate me and want to fade everything that I do — I post my picks Monday afternoon on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. This year’s new VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the TV show(s), which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
We’re going 10-0 this week!
Here we go:
Michigan at Indiana +8.5, now Indiana +9
The last four Michigan-Indiana games have been decided by 11 or less and the past two in Bloomington have both been touchdown spreads that were decided late.
As if that weren’t enough the Wolverines have failed to cover in their past four games right before Ohio State. Why? Because they were so focused on the Buckeyes.
So I love Indiana in this spot and am surprised to see the line this high.
I won’t say Indiana will win this game because let’s be honest, Indiana football exists to torture their fan base and rip away defeat from the jaws of victory at the last possible moment, but the Hoosiers lose by a touchdown at most and get us a nice cover here.
Texas A&M +14 at Georgia, now Texas A&M +13
The Georgia offense is not very good. I’m not sure if that’s because the wide receivers are pedestrian or because Jim Chaney left for Tennessee, but Jake Fromm has been downright average this year as well.
I’m not saying the Aggies are an incredible team, but they’re battle tested and will play the toughest schedule in football this year, likely ending 7-5 with five losses all to top 15 teams.
Fourteen points just feels wildly out of whack for what I believe will be a relatively low scoring, physical football game.
Howdy, y’all, Aggies are the play.
TCU +17.5 at Oklahoma, now TCU +18
Here are the Sooners past three games: lose by seven, win by one, win by three.
What makes you think this defense is suddenly going to keep anyone from scoring?
Not anything I’ve seen.
I don’t believe TCU will win this game, but I do believe they’ll keep it inside 17. Especially with Oklahoma State on the horizon next week, meaning OU is likely to be looking ahead.
Hop aboard the Gary Patterson cover express.
Illinois +15.5 at Iowa
Remember a couple of weeks ago when I told you there was no reason why Illinois should be a 15 point underdog and it wouldn’t surprise me if they won outright on the road at Michigan State?
And then Illinois went on the road and won outright?
Well, it’s deja vous all over again.
Iowa is coming off a huge win over Minnesota and prior to that a brutal battle in Wisconsin. Meanwhile Illinois had a bye week and feels great about already qualifying for a bowl at 6-4. This feels like the perfect college football let down and swing up scenario.
As if that weren’t enough reasons to hop on board the Illini +15, this Iowa offense isn’t explosive or very productive at all.
Meaning if Illinois can score just ten points they stand a really, really good chance of covering.
Since I think the Illini will score 14 or more, give me the Illini here for an easy cover.
UCLA at Southern Cal, over 64.5
The last four USC games have gone over and I feel like Clay Helton, in what is likely his final game as a Trojan coach, will go out offensive guns blazing.
Meanwhile Chip Kelly’s UCLA team was demolished on the road at Utah. He’s not going to let his offense roll into the offseason with that kind of performance.
The points rain down from the heavens like golden sunshine on the Southern California hillsides.
Enjoy the over.
Texas at Baylor -5, now Baylor -5.5
How will Baylor rebound to a second-half collapse against Oklahoma?
I think pretty well because they have one of the best coaches in college football.
This Texas team is punch drunk and stumbling towards the finish line of the season. The Longhorns have lost two of their last three and I think they make it three out of four in Waco.
Remember, beating Texas is always a big deal at Baylor, even when the Longhorns aren’t great.
Matt Rhule gets his team back up for a big win here.
Tennessee +5 at Mizzou, and the under 46, now Vols +4 and under 45.5
The Vols have won three games in a row under Jeremy Pruitt and now have a decent shot at bowl eligibility after an abysmal 1-14 start to the season.
Sitting at 5-5 Tennessee heads on the road to take on a Mizzou team that has lost four SEC games in a row, while posting 27 total points in those four games.
Mizzou is 0-5 in its last five games against the spread and the under has hit in four straight games as well. As if that weren’t enough Mizzou is coming off back-to-back incredibly physical games against Georgia and Florida.
Meanwhile Tennessee is coming off a bye week, which came at a great point in the season for a beaten down Vols team, and I feel like the Vols have a great shot not just to cover, but to win this game outright. Especially since the Vols are 5-0 against the spread in their last five, including four out of five on the under.
This feels like two teams passing in the football night.
That’s why, tap the veins boys and girls, my blood bank guarantee this week is the under.
But I also like the Vols to cover as well.
Arkansas at LSU, the under 70.5
Sometimes betting over/unders is about coaching psychology.
Last week LSU’s defense fell apart in the second half and I think LSU will want to work on fixing that as they prepare for the Aggies and the SEC title game.
LSU will keep Arkansas to ten points or less.
If I believe Arkansas will score ten or less points do I think LSU will put up over sixty on them? Believe it or not, I don’t. Because I think LSU, having seen what happened to Tua, will be inclined to get Joe Burrow out of this game early.
Right now LSU is the largest favorite in the history of SEC football.
The outcome of this game isn’t in question.
Nor does the final score matter at all for LSU.
Which is why I see the final here as something like 49-7 Tigers, meaning the under hits with ease.
Again, trust me, this one is all about coaching psychology.
Penn State +18 at Ohio State, now Penn State +18
I know, I know, Ohio State has destroyed everyone this year, winning each game by 24 or more.
But Ohio State has failed to cover the week prior to Michigan in six straight years, all as a two touchdown+ favorite. (Credit to my guy Chris Fallica on College Gameday for that stat).
Put simply, this line, I believe, is too high for a series that has been a metaphorical fight in a phone booth over the past three years.
Yes, Ohio State is 2-1 in the past three years against Penn State, but those two victories have each come by a single point via late comebacks. (Penn State won three years ago by three).
Last year I was at the Ohio State-Penn State game that the Nittany Lions gave away late. I know how much this game means to their program and I think they will keep this game, at minimum, to within ten points or less.
And it wouldn’t surprise me if this is a one score game in the fourth quarter.
That means we’ve got an easy cover here.
There you have it boys and girls, we’re going 10-0 this week.
Get rich, kids! #respectthepicks #shootersshoot
And go play Outkick’s free college football pick’em where you can win $10k this week. Good luck (but not too much luck).