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We finally got on a bit of a roll with the college football gambling picks, going 5-2 with one push last week to get us to 34-45 on the season. Yes, I know, it’s still not a good record, but we’ve got a ton of games still to play and plenty of time to get back into positive territory on the year.
More importantly, we also went 6-0 with the OutKick Six Pack in our NFL picks, and we are now on absolute fire with the NFL picks this year, running our season record there out to 35-19.
Where can you bet these games, you might be asking? Well, I’ll tell you. If you’re in Tennessee, yes, Tennessee, you can now bet right from your phone. And if you’re in Michigan or Virginia, you’re about to be able to legally bet in the next couple of weeks as well. Add in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, West Virginia and Colorado, and we’re talking about 11 states where mobile online betting is either here or about to be here. How do you take advantage of that? By signing up here. If you go sign up today you get up to a $1000 free bet for your first wager. So go get signed up today.
Especially, by the way, if you’re in Tennessee because there is going to be a great bet, one you can’t lose, essentially, announced tomorrow. So go sign up right now, Tennessee!
Okay, here we go with 11-0 on the way this week. #respectthepicks
As always, our picks go up on the VIP message board on Tuesdays. If you’d like to be an OutKick VIP, you can go sign up here as well.
Clemson at Florida State +35
I know, I know, many of you are going to tweet me that Florida State sucks!
And Clemson is coming off a loss at Notre Dame and finally bringing back Trevor Lawrence, which means this sets up to be an absolute blowout, right?
Only here’s the deal. FSU hasn’t been beaten this bad very often by Clemson. That’s even though FSU has been pretty bad the past several years. In fact, just one of the past six games has featured a Clemson victory by more than 35 points.
So I think FSU shows up and keeps it under five touchdowns.
Vanderbilt at Florida, the over 67.5
Credit to Vanderbilt for continuing to play hard even though they are now 0-6 on the season and may well be headed for 0-10. (Although the game against Tennessee next weekend is a potential win, based on the way the Vols are playing.)
Indeed, the past two weeks have been the best performances the Commodores have had all season. They’ve lost by seven and three to Mississippi State and Kentucky, respectively.
But now Florida is rolling into town, and this feels an awful lot like the Ole Miss game that Vandy played on Halloween. That is, the Florida offense rolls, and Vandy can’t keep up.
The result? I think Florida scores 50+ and Vandy scores 21 or more.
Add those up and we’re over seventy, which makes the over the right play.
Indiana +21 at Ohio State
You know 2020 is wild when the toughest Big Ten game on Ohio State’s schedule is Indiana.
But that’s where we are. If Ohio State wins this game — and doesn’t have any more games canceled — the Buckeyes will effectively lock up the Big Ten East this weekend.
But 4-0 Indiana won’t go quietly into that good night.
In fact, I think they keep it fairly close for much of the game and end up losing by two scores.
That gives you a touchdown of cushion, so ride the Hoosiers to the cover.
Kentucky at Alabama, the under 57.5
I know the Kentucky offense scored 38 against Vanderbilt, but I believe that was a mirage.
The Alabama defense is starting to roll — allowing just 17 points in their last ten quarters — and Kentucky isn’t dynamic enough offensively to give the Tide any issues, especially not with ample time to prepare and rest. The result? I think Bama holds Kentucky to ten or fewer points.
If I’m right about that, the next question is how many will Alabama score? I don’t think the answer is a ton because I think Alabama keeps things simple and works on the basics.
42-10 feels like the final score and, honestly, 35-3 wouldn’t surprise me either.
The Tide suffocates Kentucky and rolls to an easy win and an even easier under.
Tennessee at Auburn -10
Jeremy Pruitt won’t announce who the Tennessee starting quarterback will be for this game, but the truth is, it doesn’t matter. The Vols don’t have any good quarterbacks on the roster, and this offense is completely broken as a result.
A couple of years ago, Tennessee pulled off an upset at Auburn by just letting Guarantano throw jump balls down the field in single coverage, and I don’t think that’s a bad strategy here.
Ultimately, I think Tennessee will try and run the ball — mostly fail — and slowly fall behind.
Auburn wins and covers, not because the Tigers are a great team — they aren’t — but just because eventually the Tennessee defense relents and gives up big plays if they see their offense unable to have any success at all.
This feels like a 31-14 finale.
Give me Auburn by two touchdowns or more in this game.
LSU at Arkansas, the over 63.5
One of the wildest line changes in the college football season is this game. Last year, LSU was favored by over forty points. Now they are just a couple of point favorites. (And initially Arkansas was favored).
This LSU defense hasn’t really stopped anyone all year, and I don’t think they start now.
Meanwhile, the Arkansas defense is starting to sprout some leaks as the long SEC season adds up.
I think both teams go for thirty or more, and the winner here ultimately needs to get to 35.
But rather than worry about who wins, just enjoy the points and take the over.
Michigan State at Maryland -6.5
Maryland has had two weeks off since pulling off a tremendous upset of Penn State, and they now get to take on Michigan State, who other than the game they played against Michigan, has been an absolute disaster all year long.
There are some questions about whether or not this game will be played, but for now go ahead and hop on Maryland to win by double digits.
Liberty at NC State, the over 66.5
Hugh Freeze’s Liberty Flames are one of the best stories in all of college football right now.
Sitting at 8-0, they are going on the road for a third time against an ACC opponent. So far, Freeze’s team is 2-0 in these games.
Can they make it 3-0 against the ACC?
It would be incredible if they could, but here’s what I’m convinced will definitely happen: we’re headed for a shootout.
And that means you can just enjoy the offensive fireworks and cash your winning tickets in the process.
Mississippi State +24.5 at Georgia
This Georgia offense shouldn’t be favored by 24 points over anyone in the SEC right now.
I know the Mississippi State offense has been disappointing this year, but State’s defense has been fairly consistent. I think they show up and play well in this one.
Which is why I actually see this as a relatively low-scoring game.
It feels like Georgia wins 24-10, meaning you cover with ease if you take the Bulldogs and all these points.
Mizzou -6.5 at South Carolina
One of the biggest challenges in a COVID season will be keeping your players disciplined if you have a poor record. It’s natural for players to want to live normal college kid lives once the season’s goals are effectively lost. That challenge becomes even more difficult when you fire your coach and several players decide to quit on the season as a result.
Which is exactly what’s happened with South Carolina.
I know Mizzou has major health issues of their own, but Connor Bazelak has played well and there should be plays to be made against this South Carolina defense, which has fallen apart the past two weeks against Texas A&M and Ole Miss.
Mizzou has had a decent layoff, but they have no issue with the Cocks. Tigers win and cover.
USC at Utah +2.5
The Trojans are lucky to be 2-0, and I think that luck runs out on Saturday against Utah.
Kyle Whittingham’s Utes haven’t played a game yet this season, and he’s going to have them fired up and prepared to take on USC after a disappointing loss last year in the Coliseum.
Utah has won the last three games in Salt Lake, and I think that continues this year as the Utes don’t just cover, they win outright.
There you have it, boys and girls, we’re going 11-0.