Week One of the college football gambling picks got off to a solid start, posting a 7-3 opening week that included one loss by a half point on the over — LSU at UCLA — which many of you got as a win. Now let’s see if we can keep this momentum rolling into Week Two.
Before I get the picks for you, there’s a great NFL opening week offer from Fan Duel. Bet $5 on any team to win — I’d suggest the Rams or the Bucs because they are the biggest favorites — and new users get back $200 if your team wins. That’s a 40-1 payout. Have a friend take the opposite side of the bet and you’re guaranteed to win. Get your bets in now.
Okay, it’s time to #respectthepicks and #getrichkids
The Jayhawks are a dumpster fire of a program and they’re headed to a Friday night slaughter in South Carolina.
Coastal Carolina doesn’t get many opportunities to grab attention on the national stage, and I think Jamey Chadwell is laying in wait for this one, looking forward to springing a nationally televised beatdown on a bumbling Jayhawks program.
So far this season, Kansas narrowly snuck by South Dakota last Friday while Coastal Carolina walloped Citadel.
Give me Coastal by 35 over Kansas here for a Friday night special to get you rolling with a 1-0 gambling start.
Oregon was not impressive in Week One. But neither, for the most part, was Ohio State.
Now the two undefeated teams meet in Columbus for what should be a signature battle between the Big Ten and the Pac-12.
Only I’m not sold on either team being very impressive at this point.
I think we get a muddling mess of a game, and the Buckeyes end up winning by around ten, something like 34-24.
So give me the Ducks to get the cover here.
The Johnny Majors Bowl arrives in Neyland Stadium. The legendary Majors won a national title at Pitt before returning home to Knoxville and winning an SEC title at Tennessee. Majors was the head coach of the first game I ever watched by myself — Tennessee vs. Miami in the 1986 Sugar Bowl.
One of the gambling angles I like to take is picking SEC teams when they are home underdogs against out-of-conference opponents.
It doesn’t happen that often, but when it does I think you get decent value on the home underdog.
Tennessee is a 6-6 caliber team this year, but the ACC, at least so far this year, has fared very poorly in out-of-conference road or neutral site games against the SEC: Miami against Alabama, Clemson against Georgia and Louisville against Ole Miss. Granted all three of those SEC teams are much better than Tennessee, but two of these ACC teams were supposed to be at the top of the conference.
Now you’re telling me that Pitt should be favored by over a field goal against a middling SEC team on the road?
I just don’t see it.
Especially when both coaches are familiar with each other as Josh Heupel and Pat Narduzzi coached against each other in 2018 and 2019. UCF won 45-14 in 2018 and then in 2019 Pitt stole a win late 35-34.
I think this is a field goal game either way in Knoxville on Saturday and love the Vols here +3.5.
Penn State is coming off an incredibly emotional road win at Wisconsin and now they return back home to play against a pretty decent Ball State team that won the MAC last year. As if that weren’t enough, the Nittany Lions play Auburn next week, meaning this is the very definition of a trap game.
The only thing that gives me pause is this will be the first time Penn State has played in front of a home crowd since November of 2019 and that might provide an early spark, but I just don’t think it will last throughout this game.
Ultimately Penn State wins by a couple of touchdowns and you get a Ball State cover.
The Aggies were just okay in their home opener last weekend and now their brand new quarterback, Haynes King, who tossed three picks in Week One, goes on the road for the first time in his college career. Granted the game is in Denver, not in Boulder, and we know there will be a ton of Aggie fans there too, but I feel like this is a steep number to cover in a tough road environment for a young quarterback.
The Aggies are going to be very good by the end of the season, but I don’t think their offense has rounded into form yet.
Give me the Buffaloes to cover.
Going all the way back to 2004, only two games have gone over 48 points between these two teams.
Does that guarantee an under in this one? Of course not.
But it gives you a sense for what usually happens in this intense in-state battle — defense tends to dominate.
I think we’ll see more defensive domination this year too, especially because both teams are highly ranked in the top ten, which happens almost never. That, to me, increases the tension and nervousness on the part of the players and the coaches.
Give me the under in a Cy-Hawk bowl for the ages.
We’re taking the OutKick College Tour on the road to Fayetteville this weekend. We’ll be set up on campus in The Garden doing live TV show hits on Friday and Saturday, and I look forward to meeting a bunch of Longhorn and Razorback fans.
But what happens in this game?
I think Texas is walking into a incredible road environment, and the Razorbacks will make just enough plays to keep this one close into the fourth quarter.
In what will become a yearly rivalry in the near future, Arkansas covers and has a chance to steal it late.
Vandy may be the worst college football team in SEC history.
And that’s not hyperbole.
Now you’re telling me that Vandy, which just lost at home by twenty to East Tennessee State, is going to travel halfway across the country and cover a touchdown line on the road at Colorado State?
I just don’t see it.
That’s especially the case because one of the real challenges the Commodores are going to face this year in their out-of-conference games is even though they may be the worst SEC football team of all time, everyone they play gets fired up to play an SEC team. And that’s what I see happening with the Rams this weekend.
I think the only team Vandy has a chance to beat this year is UConn. And the SEC games themselves are going to be a total mess.
Colorado State, yes even Colorado State, by double digits.
Mizzou was relatively unimpressive in Week One action, meanwhile Kentucky looked like they were capable of completing an actual forward pass, making Wildcat fans delirious with glee.
Kentucky has dominated this series, winning five of the past six after Mizzou won their first three upon entry to the SEC.
While it’s still hard to get a read on both teams, I’m going to be taking a lot of underdogs in SEC East battles this season because after Georgia I just don’t think there’s that much that distinguishes most East teams. None of them are very good, but aside from Vanderbilt none of them are awful either. So I suspect there will be quite a bit of value on moneyline underdogs in division this year.
I like Mizzou’s chances to keep this game close and get a late touchdown for the cover…and maybe the win.
Last week, Washington lost at home to Montana in a crippling debut for the Husky football team.
Now they travel on the road against the perpetually disappointing Jim Harbaugh led Michigan Wolverines.
So what happens here in yet another Pac-12 vs. Big Ten battle?
The defenses dominate.
I think the Wolverines get the win, but it’s an ugly game, something like 23-17 Michigan. And I don’t feel comfortable hopping on either side.
So take the under and enjoy the messy offenses.
Stanford was absolutely dominated last week by Kansas State. The Trojans, meanwhile, were relatively boring in their opening game win.
So why do I feel like Stanford makes a run at USC? Because of David Shaw and Clay Helton. Just when you think Stanford’s done for, they win a game you don’t expect, and just when you think Clay Helton has USC off and running, they find a way to lose a game you never saw them losing.
Will that be the story line of this game? It wouldn’t surprise me at all.
But in the meantime, 17.5 feels like way too many.
Give me the Cardinal to cover.
There you have it, boys and girls, we’re going 11-0 this weekend.
Get your bets in now and enjoy the ride this weekend, and I’ll see you guys in Fayetteville, Arkansas starting tomorrow afternoon.