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Well, we had our first losing week of the season, going 6-8 against the spread with our toughest beat being the Texas collapse when we had them +3.5.
As a result our gambling record at the midway point of the season is 41-29, which is a 59% winning percentage. The only way to bounce back from our first losing week is by reversing the mojo and getting rolling anew.
Which is what we’re going to do.
Okay, here we go with 11 winners:
Clemson at Syracuse +14
As long as I can get double digits underdogs in games against Clemson, I’m taking them.
I just don’t believe in this Clemson offense and Syracuse has shown the ability to score points, posting 30 and 37 in its past two ACC games.
So give me the Orange to cover the two touchdowns in Syracuse.
Auburn at Arkansas -3.5
A simple question here for me: which team is going to bounce back after a tough loss better the Tigers or the Razorbacks? I think the answer is Arkansas because I think the team has faith in Sam Pittman’s decision to go for two on the road in Oxford.
Remember that last season Arkansas should have been the winner against Auburn, but an SEC officiating error gave the Tigers the win instead.
This year I think Arkansas gets revenge and wins by a touchdown or more. Woo Pig and the cover.
Michigan State -4.5 at Indiana
I’m going to keep riding the Spartans until they really disappoint me.
And so far this season that just hasn’t happened with Mel Tucker’s squad.
Meanwhile Indiana has yet to win a Big Ten game or show any of the spark they produced last season for Tom Allen.
So give me Michigan State to roll to 7-0.
Texas A&M at Mizzou +9.5 and the over 59.5
This is a counterintuitive bet because Mizzou is really, really bad on the defensive side of the ball and has shown no indication they’re a decent SEC team in the past several weeks. But I think A&M starts a bit slow on the road after the monumental win over Alabama and that Mizzou will be able to score some points on this Aggie defense.
I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I do love the over and for Mizzou to sneak in the backdoor here late. Remember, as big of a win as the Alabama game was, this is the same Aggie team that lost to Arkansas and Mississippi State the two weeks prior.
Give me the Tigers and the over.
Kentucky at Georgia -21.5
We’re headed to Athens with the Outkick bus tour this weekend and I think Georgia’s defense will completely throttle the Kentucky offense.
I’m talking a 42-10 style beat down.
This is no indictment, by the way, of Kentucky’s team, it’s just more of an endorsement of the Georgia defense, which has still only allowed two offensive touchdowns all season.
I just don’t think the Kentucky offense is dynamic enough to give Georgia real problems here on the defensive side of the ball.
So give me the Bulldogs to cover a really big number at home.
Alabama at Mississippi State +17.5
Yes, I know, Alabama lost a game they shouldn’t have and there’s a theory here the Tide will come rolling into Starkville and totally disembowel Mike Leach’s team.
But I don’t buy that because Mississippi State’s defense has been solid all year long.
In fact, the Bulldogs haven’t given up more than 28 in the SEC so far this season. Alabama may well score 35, but I don’t think the Tide will hang way more than that on State.
So then the question becomes do I think Leach, with two weeks to get ready, can post 21 or more on the Tide.
I think he can.
Voila, math is sometimes simple, give me the the Bulldogs to cover a big number.
TCU +14 at Oklahoma
You know how I said I wasn’t taking Clemson as a double digit favorite this season in conference play? I feel the same way about Oklahoma, who has yet to beat any FBS team by more than a touchdown.
Maybe TCU gets clobbered this weekend, but if so it will be the first beatdown OU has put on anyone all season.
Plus, I love TCU here as a two touchdown underdog coming off of a wildly emotional Oklahoma win over Texas.
Give me the Horned Frogs to cover in Norman.
Ole Miss at Tennessee +3 and the over 82
I really think both teams will score 50 points in this game, which is why this will be one of the most enertaining games in the country come Saturday. Ultimately I think this game will resemble what we saw between Arkansas and Ole Miss last weekend.
The Vols have scored 28 points in the first quarter of their past two SEC games, blowout wins at Mizzou and over South Carolina. Now Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss are in town, Neyland Stadium is sold out for a night game, and the points will rain down all night long in a battle between two head coach playcallers seeking to upstage the other.
The reason I think the value is on Tennessee here is because the Tennessee defense has been fairly competent all year. That doesn’t mean they’ve been really good, far from it, but they haven’t had a complete collapse. Meanwhile the Ole Miss defense the past two weeks hasn’t really been able to stop anyone.
I think Josh Heupel will have success on offense and the Tennessee defense makes enough plays to give the Vols the outright win as the home underdog — as well as the over hitting.
Florida at LSU +10.5
I know, I know, I’m crazy for betting on LSU with Coach Orgeron’s job on the line and the Gators smelling blood in the water in an effort to get revenge on the LS Shoe game last year.
But ultimately I think LSU has too much pride to quit on their team, especially in a big rivalry game at home.
Plus, how often do you get LSU as a double digit home underdog? It almost never happens.
Which means the gambling value is all on the Tigers here. So, gulp, grab the Bayou Bengals and hope they haven’t quit on the season already.
There you have it, boys and girls, we’re going 11-0 this weekend.