Outkick Bets: What the Data Says to Bet in CFB

All odds in this article come from our partner, FanDuel Sportsbook.

We have finished Weeks 0, 1, 2 and 3 in the college football season and we’ve been blessed what I like to call… a good sample size. Early on a lot of trends can be dismissed as outliers but now, the data is beginning to connect in a larger picture in the sports-betting scene. We can now begin to look at college football at a macro level and dive into meaningful statistics and trends and we are going to start by looking at game totals.

Totals, one of the two most wagered on parts of a game, are perhaps the most intriguing aspect of the bets we make. If you’ve been keeping a keen eye, you’ve noticed a few things and if it’s gone over your head, don’t you worry your little head, I’ve been compiling the data for us all.

Let’s begin with the most frequently used number for a game total by sportsbooks this season and it is 56. That number has shown up 21 times this season. What has happened in those 21 games is pretty interesting: the OVER on that number (which includes the hooked number of 56.5) is 12-9 (57.1%). That’s close to where the books want it, splitting the action on both sides. Things can adjust throughout the week and remember these numbers are from our partner FanDuel Sportsbook, but here’s the games that we are looking at this weekend with the 56 as of publishing:

FIU/Central Michigan – Toledo/Ball State – Wyoming/UConn – Kansas/Duke

Personally, I like to then look at numbers that can give me the most promise for my dollar, the ones with the most consistent performances, which ones are consistently hitting one side or the other. My friends, I have you covered here too. I have the top performing numbers below alongside the games you may want to bookmark for your Saturday betting.

53. 10-6 (62.5%).

Liberty/Syracuse – Illinois/Purdue – Louisiana/Georgia Southern – South Florida/BYU

50 is 9-6 (60%)

No Games as of Publishing

52 is 10-8 (55.6%).


They aren’t as sexy, or fun but if you’re going to make money doing this, you have to be wiling to open your mind. Oh, I am referring to unders. Grit your teeth, white-knuckling unders. I found some really interesting numbers here. How about the most consistent total of ALL THE TOTALS is an under.

63. 9-1 (90%)

SMU/TCU – Indiana/Western Kentucky – San Jose State/Western Michigan

58 is 11-5 (68.8%)

UNLV/Fresno State (Friday) – Missouri/Boston College – UCLA/Stanford –

North Texas/Louisiana Tech – Southern Miss/Alabama – Arizona/Oregon

55 is 12-7 (63.1%).

Middle Tennessee State/Charlotte (Friday) — LSU/Mississippi State

It’s a 30,000-foot look at the scene so far with a few weeks of data in the spreadsheets, but the numbers are there early if you are struggling to commit to a bet on a game this weekend. My sterling advice is to bookmark this and use it for Saturday. These numbers are all based on the closing total number so if things move throughout the week, it’s okay in this case and right now. This guide might make you some money on Saturday and if it does, you owe me a follow on Twitter.

Written by Arky Shea

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