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Outkick Bets: Betting Tonight’s Total, the Data

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All odds in this article come from our partner, FanDuel Sportsbook.

Tonight we get to experience the return of college football on Tuesdays. Are you ready to give me an amen? LET ME HEAR IT! This matchup is a good one with App State traveling to Lafayette to battle Louisiana and give us a potential preview of the Sun Belt championship game. Enough, though with the theatrics. Let’s bet it.

I’ve been watching the total all week (it’s Tuesday, I know) but it’s hopped up quickly from 54 to now 57.5. Now we have entered magical number territory. Let’s take a quick look at what the data shows us about the total and where it could land by kickoff and where you need to keep your eyes.

The numbers 56, 57 and 58 (which including their half-points) have shown up 75 times this season. The under has hit 53.3% of the time. That’s notable because these are the most common totals and as a direct result, the most difficult ones to consistently win with.

There is a fallacy in those numbers, though, that I’d like to clue you in on six weeks into the season. This is where you have to do a little homework and find the right total according to your sportsbook. Here’s what we are looking at: The number of 56 is 18-15 to the UNDER (54.5%). It’s not a convincing record but if we look at the last three weeks, however, that number has shown the opposite trend and has gone OVER 9 of the 15 times it has been the final total (60.0%).

The current number is at 57.5 and if it stays there, there is evidence to play the OVER. That total has happened 20 times halfway thru this season. In those games, the total has gone over TWELVE times (60.0%). We can also water down that trend with the full season numbers, so if we look at the more recent results, we see a different story and a stronger case for the over. In the past three weeks, the over has won seven of the ten occurrences (70.0%).

Now, here is the reason I tell you to make sure your number fits. If this total hits 58 for you, the UNDER is 14-8 (63.6%) all season but if we monitor the recent three-week window we’ve been touring, the story isn’t as clear. In these past three weeks, the total of 58 has gone UNDER four of those seven chances (57.1%).

The final number you find to bet is critical. You can diagnose offenses and defenses until the proverbial cows come home, but there is truth in data. The data suggests every point tells a very different story in how you make money. For giggles, if you took the opening number of 54, the numbers tell us that the UNDER is 14-11 (56.0%).

Written by Arky Shea

Arky is a decade plus veteran of sports talk radio and a podcaster since before it was cool (2006). He has also won many, many awards for being good at it. As you read this, he is probably working an angle to win $50 on a game and wondering when the Alabama dynasty actually will end.

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