Full disclosure before you bet that money, I am a Braves fan. I’ve only been one for 5 years when I fell in love with the nucleus of this team and their exuberance and how much I thought that was good for baseball (plus they are the closest MLB team to my house). I tell you that so that you know that I am aware of the sin that is betting your money on your team but I have bet around them*. One does assume my team wins but I think you’ll see my logic is airtight. Also, an NBA bet. Leggggoooo!
Braves/Astros Total Home Runs UNDER 16.5 (-122)
When it comes to future, my rule is pretty simple: plus-money and heavy plus-money or no dice. It’s about my money being held up for so long, really but this one is different. You only have to wait a couple of weeks at most for this payout so it’s a rare exception. It’s simple math for me here. The Astros have hit 1.3 HR/game this entire postseason and that included a several game stretch where there were 1000 runs being scored against the Red Sox and the White Sox before that. Atlanta is tallying 1.2 HR/game. If we hit this average, it’ll take 7 games to get the over. Both teams have hit 7 games in their home parks (in the entire postseason). I expect a good amount of scoring, and some dingers, but let’s keep under.
World Series MVP: Freddie Freeman (+1000)
A little too much was made of Freddie Freeman going 0-for-4 with a fistful of strikeouts in Game 2 of the NLCS. He got lost in the shuffle shortly thereafter when Eddie Rosario toasted L.A. with a historic performance to win the NLCS MVP, but Freddie was strong after that 4K night. The dude went 6-for-13 (a solid .462) including a Game 6 performance in which he was walked 4 times. This lineup is going to be hard to get away from and isolate Freddie’s at-bats and I think if stats are close and the Braves win, a bit of a legacy vote will be in the cards for Freddie too and it wouldn’t be the worst thing.
Warriors -9 @ Thunder (-110)
The Warriors have begun their “Remember Us Reunion Tour” in style, starting 3-0 and those guys will travel to Oklahoma City for a matchup with the G-League Thunder. OKC has several fine players and a bunch of question marks and early on, those question marks are exclamation points in the bad column. The Warriors l, even though not fully reunited, are excelling with the newly named Western Conference Player of the Week Steph Curry already throwing down a triple double, 45-point game and 20-point quarter this season (and not in the same game). Everyone fights hard especially early in the season, but Golden State is just deeper and better by a fair margin. OKC has gone 0-3 ATS already and 0-2 at home. They were 14-point dogs to Utah and lost by 21 and 2.5-point home dogs to Houston before losing by 33.
*denotes a major loophole