Geoff Clark
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My brain hurts trying to figure out how the 6-seed Brooklyn Nets (45-37) could upset the 3-seed Philadelphia 76ers (54-28) in their NBA Eastern Conference 1st-round playoff matchup.
The Nets had a brutal season. They had to suspend Kyrie Irving because for s***-posting on Twitter. Brooklyn fired coach Steven Nash to as a last-ditch effort to salvage the Kyrie-Kevin Durant era. Then the Nets traded both of them.
Aside from a complete choke-job by Doc Rivers, Joel Embiid, and James Harden, I just don’t see it. Rivers has wasted talented rosters before and Embiid has never made an NBA Finals. So it’s possible.
Brooklyn C Nic Claxton is one of the best defensive bigs in the NBA but Embiid is going to wear him out. Embiid is the favorite to win the 2023 NBA MVP and the league’s leading scorer for a 2nd straight season.
He has 65 pounds on Claxton (280-215) can bully him and one of the NBA’s best at getting to the foul line. Once Claxton gets into foul trouble, the Nets are screwed.
Do the Nets have the firepower to upset the Sixers? No. But, I’ll say this: Brooklyn has the length to frustrate Philly and the outside shooting to steal a couple of games.
Nets vs. 76ers Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Series
- Nets (+600)
- 76ers (-900)
Series Spread
- Nets +2.5 (+240)
- 76ers -2.5 (-310)
While I don’t give Brooklyn much of a chance, I’m also not buying any of these expensive Philadelphia odds. Even the Sixers -2.5 (-150) series spread is a no-go.
Harden usually pukes on himself or gets injured in the playoffs. Embiid makes dumb errors trying to do too much or settles for long 2s. And Rivers can certainly get out-coached by Nets coach Jacque Vaughn.
That said, Embiid is the best player in the series, Harden should be the 2nd-best player and, if I’m being fair, the 76ers have been great this year.
The NBA nowadays is all about the 3-point shot. Well, Philadelphia leads the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage and is 5th in defensive 3-point shooting.
Even though they aren’t the biggest favorite, the Sixers losing would be the most embarrassing outcome of the 1st-round. I just cannot believe they’ll lose but there isn’t value on any Philly series price.
Nets at 76ers, Game 1
- Tip-off: Saturday, 1 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Arena in Philadelphia.
- Season Series: Sixers won 4-0 straight up (SU), 3-1 against the spread (ATS) and the totals were 3-1 Over/Under (O/U).
- Odds:
If I had to pick a side in this game it would be 76ers -8.5 (-110). But, similar to the full-series odds, I’m avoiding a side in Game 1 and instead focusing on the OVER 214.5 (-110).
The four Nets-76ers meetings this regular season had an average total of 221.1. Granted, the 1st two don’t really factor into this handicap since that Brooklyn squad still employed KD and Kyrie.
Also, a Philly team at full strength played the Nets since they acquired forwards Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson and guard Spencer Dinwiddie at the trade deadline.
Furthermore, that Nets-76ers meeting on Feb. 11 finished in a 101-98 Philadelphia victory and the Under easily cashed on a 223.5-point total. But, 214.5 is just too low of a total in today’s NBA.
Philly’s offense can get whatever it wants
Embiid is going to collapse the Brooklyn’s perimeter defense and leave Harden, SGs Tyrese Maxey and De’Anthony Melton and SF Tobias Harris wide open.
There is no reason to think the 76ers won’t score in the upper-110s or as high as the mid-120s. The Nets have a bunch of overqualified backups who can knock down 3s and keep Brooklyn alive.
The Sixers usually come out the gate strong in the first round of the playoffs. Philadelphia has gone Over the total in three of its past four Game 1s since 2020. The 76ers are averaging 126.7 PPG in those three Overs.
The Nets have the 3-point shooting to do their part
Brooklyn’s sharpshooters include Bridges, Johnson, SG Seth Curry, PG Patty Mills, and SF Joe Harris. Between all of these guys, Brooklyn can get to at least 105 points.
My biggest concerns for this bet is Philly being so far ahead in the 2nd-half that both teams take their feet off the gas and Brooklyn’s lack of a true point-guard to get its 3-point shooters looks.
BET: OVER 214.5 (-110) in Nets-76ers Game 1 at DraftKings, up to 216
OutKick Bets Podcast: NBA Playoff 2023 Betting Primer Ft. David Troy
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