Proper Reaction Monday: Level-Headed Takeaways From NFL Sunday, Week 3
Finally, we're starting to get some real information! As I've explained in the two previous iterations of this column, people make wild assumptions based on limited information. Two games is not that much information. After three NFL Sundays, we can start to form better opinions.
Still, 28 teams have played three games. That still represents less than one-quarter of a season. Actually, it represents less than one-fifth of the season. Thus, there are still some wild takes getting thrown around following NFL Sunday #3.
First, let's revisit some of last week's takes and see how they fared after gathering an extra 5.9% of information.
Revisiting Media Hot Takes Following NFL Sunday, Week 2
Los Angeles Chargers need to fire Brandon Staley
Well, the Los Angeles Chargers won Sunday but what I wrote last week still applies this week. Everyone is calling for coach Brandon Staley's head.
No one thinks Brandon Staley can coach football. Except me. Although, I'm starting to come around that I might be just a tad wrong about that. However, his decision to go for that fourth down late in the game was absolutely the right call. If people want him fired because his defense stinks or they don't believe he can lead a team, fine.
But using the call on fourth down as a reason for getting rid of him is just flat-out incorrect. First of all, the math heavily supported his decision. Sure, the "football guys" are going to explain about momentum, or how the game is played or some other antiquated idea that we continue to perpetuate because "that's how it's always been done."
Let me ask this: if you are a Vikings fan and the Chargers have fourth-and-1 in that situation, are you hoping they send the offense on the field or the punt team? I can almost guarantee that at least 90% of Vikings fans -- and Vikings bettors -- hoped to see the punter.
Why? Because if the Chargers pick up the first down, the Vikings chance to win the game is 0%. If they punt, there's a 100% chance that the Vikings still have a chance to win the game. So, if everyone who wanted the Vikings to win is rooting for you to punt, doesn't that tell you everything you need to know?
I could spend this entire column on Staley -- and I might do that later in the week -- but for now I'll just say: the Los Angeles Chargers don't need to fire Brandon Staley. They're one game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West and they play Kansas City in three weeks. Let's see what happens in those games before making any rash decisions.
Miami Dolphins are the class of the AFC
OK, this one did not age well. Many of you would probably argue the Staley one didn't either, but that's a matter of opinion that I just explained. I still stand behind this take even though Miami looks completely unstoppable and scored 70 points in an NFL game, something no team had done since the season of Super Bowl I.
I admitted last week that I undersold head coach Mike McDaniel. Miami's offense is not only fun and interesting but extremely innovative. They built a team almost entirely around speed, and that works great in today's NFL where violence and toughness is discouraged in the name of safety.
This past NFL Sunday, Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel looked the league's best offensive mind ... can he and the team sustain that success? (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
The question I still have is this: is the Dolphins offense the wave of the future? Or is it a gimmick to eventually be found out by opposing defenses?
As a lifelong Dolphins fan (you'd never know based on how I write about them, but I pride myself on trying not to be biased), I vividly remember the "Ronnie Brown Season." That year, the Dolphins introduced something called the "Wildcat." It worked incredibly well and Miami made the playoffs.
Sure, the Wildcat is still around. But barely. NFL teams adjusted to the Dolphins, it just took time. So, the question remains: is this the new version of the "Wildcat" offense or did Miami discover an entirely new strategy for football that's going to be copied by everyone? We all want to believe it's the latter, but the more likely answer is that it's the former. Can it win a Super Bowl, though, before teams figure it out? That remains to be seen.
Atlanta Falcons are actually good
I tried to warn everyone last week that the Falcons 2-0 record was a mirage. In my weekly NFL betting column, I told readers to take Detroit to thrash Atlanta this week. The Falcons offense STINKS. Not because they don't have players, because they do. But Arthur Smith refuses to enter this age of the NFL at all.
Where Mike McDaniel is trying to reinvent offense and it's having an obviously positive effect, Smith continues to trot out a 1950s "three yards and a cloud of dust" offense. That was fine when Bijan Robinson was doing crazy athletic stuff. But the Lions bottled him up. And Atlanta failed to gain even 200 yards of total offense. Their schedule still sets up well, but this is not a great football team.
This Week's Media Hot Takes From NFL Sunday, Week 3
Dallas Cowboys badly exposed in loss to Arizona Cardinals
Losing to the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday was a bad loss early in the NFL season for the Dallas Cowboys. But it's not really that big of a deal, quite honestly. First of all, the Cardinals have played much better than everyone -- myself included -- expected. They led by three touchdowns in the second half against the Giants before blowing it.
This week, they took the lead and didn't relinquish it. However, Dallas suffered a demoralizing loss during practice when Trevon Diggs suffered a season-ending injury. Going on the road and winning in the NFL is never easy. Dallas' defense did not play up to its standards and the players know it. That happens. The Cowboys also took 13 penalties for over 100 yards. Not ideal.
But also not time to panic. Cleaning up the discipline and penalty issues is not insurmountable. They allowed more yards on defense against Arizona than they did in the first two weeks combined. Perhaps the Cowboys were a bit overconfident. They won't be now.
I expect them to bounce back and win this week against New England. Then, they have a Sunday Night Football game against the San Francisco 49ers. That's when we're going to learn who the Cowboys truly are. Not an NFL Sunday afternoon game in Arizona.
The Minnesota Vikings should trade Kirk Cousins
The Minnesota Vikings are 0-3. That's ... not great. But their season is not over. Trading Kirk Cousins implies the team is giving up. There's no need to do that right now.
Over the next four weeks, Minnesota plays both the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. Fortunately, both games are at home. They also face Carolina and Chicago, two of the NFL's worst teams.
They most likely go 2-2 in that stretch. If they manage to go 3-1, even better. But even if they lose to both Kansas City and San Francisco, that puts them at 2-5 after seven games. However, they have a six-game stretch where they face Green Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, Denver, Chicago and Las Vegas. Those are all winnable games.
The NFC is weak and the NFC North is still very winnable for Minnesota. In fact, the Vikings are +550 to win the division at this point. They still have four games against the two teams ahead of them -- the Lions and Packers -- and I believe Minnesota has a better chance to capture the division crown than the odds suggest.
Quick Hits From NFL Sunday
The AFC South is bad
I don't think this is an overreaction. I warned prior to the season that the Jacksonville Jaguars weren't as good as people thought. However, I expected the Tennessee Titans to be a lot better. The 2-1 Indianapolis Colts lead the division, but they're not going to win more than seven games, tops. This is just a bad division that's one team has to win and make the playoffs.
That stinks because some team that's far more deserving is going to miss the playoffs in order to let one of these teams in.
Nathaniel Hackett had a better record through at least four games as Denver Broncos head coach than Sean Payton does
I'm going to include this blurb every single week until it isn't true. And that means it's guaranteed to go into next week's column, too. I've made my case about Sean Payton before, so no need to rehash that.
Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos are a complete dumpster fire and they proved it again this past NFL Sunday. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
He's an OK NFL coach, but not a genius worthy of a first-round pick. It's really funny that he absolutely obliterated former head coach Nathaniel Hackett publicly and he actually has a worse record through three games.
In fact, he's two games worse than Hackett who started 2-1. That team ended up at 2-3 after Week 5, so Payton needs to win each of the next two weeks just to tie Hackett. Poetic justice.
Luckily for Payton and the Broncos, their next two games are against the Jets and Bears. If they can't win those games, Payton might not last as long as Hackett did. Boy, that would be something.