NFL 'First-Half' Report Card For The NFC: I Got A Lot Wrong, And I'll Admit It | Dan Zaksheske
One of the great things about being a "sports analyst" -- particularly in the NFL -- is that you get to be wrong a lot. And, for the most part, don't have to own up to it. Stephen A. Smith, Dan Orlovsky, Shannon Sharpe, and the like all pontificate endlessly and say some dumb stuff.
So, too, do I. However, they rarely revisit their takes. They just move on to the next day and the next topic. The 24-hour news cycle applies equally to sports. That's why so many change their minds from week-to-week. Or, they use lame excuses to cover up being wrong.
I saw a great tweet from colleague Zach Dean that perfectly illustrates this point.
The point is, these analysts just make up narratives as they go and constantly move the goalposts.
Therefore, I'm going to break the trend and actually take a look back at my predictions, and decide openly whether to "stand pat," "double down" or surrender. That way, I can create a whole new set of takes to roast myself about later. You're welcome.
Oh, and I put "first half" in quotes because we're past the halfway point. Though, the majority of NFL teams have played nine games, just over half their seasons.
Revisiting preseason predictions on every NFC team
Prior to the season, I gave out an over/under on the win totals of every NFL team. For this edition, I'm going to focus on the NFC. Don't worry, you'll be able to laugh at my AFC predictions soon...
NFC teams where I'm 'doubling-down' on my preseason pick
I want to start with the prediction that I think I nailed. There are two reasons for that. One is to put me in a good mood so I don't quit when it starts getting embarrassing. But the second, and more important reason, is because there's nothing better than building someone up just to tear them down.
I'm willing to do that to myself just for your entertainment. Not all heroes wear capes.
Philadelphia Eagles Predicted Win Total: OVER 11.5
The Eagles have eight wins in nine games and are easily pacing to crush this number. Although, I think they just get past it. Their schedule is really rough for the next five weeks (Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Cowboys and Seahawks), but they finish with two games against the Giants sandwiched around a game with the Cardinals.
The Philadelphia Eagles have the best record in the NFL through Week 10. (Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Since they're almost certainly going to win all three of those games, they need just one win in the next five weeks to cover the over. They're going to get that, no problem. Double-down, dealer!
San Francisco 49ers Predicted Win Total: OVER 10.5
I know I went out on a crazy limb projecting the NFC Championship teams to repeat their success, but hey, it worked! Both the Eagles and 49ers are among the NFL's elite, despite San Francisco's recent hiccups. They have to win five of their final eight games to cover this number, and I'm willing to bet they do.
Their schedule isn't easy, but I can't see them losing four more games. I'm happy with this pick and have no problem throwing more chips on the table.
Minnesota Vikings Predicted Win Total: OVER 8.5
None of my picks has gone through the roller coaster that this one has. Minnesota started the season 1-4 and everyone buried them. There was talk of them tanking for the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. I BRAZENLY declared -- at 1-4 -- that the Minnesota Vikings would reach the playoffs.
People laughed at me. Said I was crazy. Who's crazy now!?
Though I don't buy that Josh Dobbs is better than Kirk Cousins -- or anywhere near as good, really -- the Vikings need just three more wins to have a winning season. Really, this is all about their schedule. That's what I said after the 1-4 start, too.
The Minnesota Vikings are one of the biggest surprises in the NFL over the past five weeks. (Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
They have one of the easiest in the NFL and that continues over the next three weeks (Broncos, Bears, Raiders). They still have two games against Detroit and one against Cincinnati, so this is daunting. Still, they just need to win three of four against the aforementioned trio plus the Packers. That's if they can't upset either Detroit in two tries or Cincinnati. Which, they might.
I felt that this team was better than most people realized and they've been able to win without Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins. They should get Jefferson back, which only makes them better. This pick is my favorite of the season, so I'm absolutely not backing off it now.
Atlanta Falcons Predicted Win Total: UNDER 8.5
Yeah, I'm doubling-down that the Atlanta Falcons aren't winning five more games. This might have looked bad to some after their 4-3 start, but a three-game losing streak reminded everyone that Arthur Smith can't coach.
This team has talent, but Smith holds them back. Hopefully, the team realizes that and moves on. I'd love to see what a Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Bijan Robinson offense looks like with a competent quarterback and a competent head coach. Kirk Cousins, anyone?
Chicago Bears Predicted Win Total: UNDER 7.5
It still blows my mind that people believed Justin Fields was a legitimate NFL MVP candidate prior to this season. Many don't realize the benefits of playing quarterback on a bad team. Bad teams get less exposure to the masses. They play a lot of early afternoon games, shuffled in with the rest of the league.
So, my theory is that most people saw the stats -- which were OK at times -- and saw the highlight reel plays and that was enough to make their decision. But, the tape has always been bad.
Justin Fields lacks too many important traits to be a successful NFL starting QB. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
Find me someone who said Justin Fields would be good -- after two seasons in the NFL -- and I'll show you someone who either A. doesn't watch tape B. is bad at watching tape or C. was afraid to criticize Fields because he's a black quarterback. Those are the only options.
Green Bay Packers Predicted Win Total: UNDER 7.5
This one makes me laugh, too. The Packers started 2-1 and all the NFL pundits started yelling "Jordan Love is HIM!" After three starts, they decided he's a franchise quarterback. They proceeded to lose four games in a row and five of the next six.
Love ranks 20th in the NFL among quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Focus, just behind Baker Mayfield and Ryan Tannehill. Yikes. Love isn't terrible, per se, but he's not great, either. Their next three opponents are the Chargers, Lions and Chiefs and I expect the Packers to be heavy underdogs in all three. Their schedule lightens a bit down the stretch, but not enough to make this an eight-win team.
NFC teams where I'm 'standing pat' on my preseason pick
Dallas Cowboys Predicted Win Total: UNDER 10.5
This is a tough one. I thought the Cowboys would be good, but their schedule made it tough to see 11 wins. I still think that holds. Dallas needs to win five of its final eight games to get there and they have a stretch of games against the Seahawks, Eagles, Bills, Dolphins and Lions.
They also face Carolina and Washington twice. So, if they win those three, they need two from the above list. I do think that's possible, perhaps even likely, but I'd still bet against it. They just don't have any impressive wins this season. They've lost to both good teams they've played (49ers and Eagles) and laid an egg against the Arizona Cardinals.
None of the teams they've beaten has a winning record, currently. They need to start winning bigger games to take them seriously as a legitimate contender. Good news! They've got five of those coming up.
Seattle Seahawks Predicted Win Total: OVER 9.5
I think I was both right and wrong about the Seattle Seahawks. Like the Cowboys, their schedule set up so nicely. Unlike Dallas, they have a couple solid wins (Detroit and Cleveland). I don't buy that the Seahawks are legitimate contenders because Geno Smith is still Geno Smith. He's another great example of everyone throwing out everything they knew because of a very impressive stretch of games.
Geno Smith took the league by storm in the first half of last season but has been just average since. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
The truth is, he's been about league average since the torrid stretch to start last year. And, hey, league average these days can absolutely win games. The Seahawks need four wins to hit their over, but I'm hesitant to bet on that. They still have to play the 49ers twice, the Eagles and the Cowboys. With potential wins over the Cardinals and Titans remaining, they need to find two more. I think they do it, but not enough to risk any more money.
New Orleans Saints Predicted Win Total: UNDER 9.5
This is another tough one because someone has to win the NFC South. I thought it would be the Carolina Panthers (more on that later) but that was way wrong. I don't think the Saints are very good, and ultimately the winner of the South is probably going to get bludgeoned in the Wild Card Round by the highest-seeded Wild Card team.
Still, the Saints need five wins to make me wrong here. Under normal circumstances I'd say there's no chance they win five of their last seven games. However, they play Atlanta twice, Carolina, Tampa Bay, the New York Giants, and the Los Angeles Rams in six of those games.
Do I think the Saints are great? I don't. But, it's possible to think they could win five of those games. I don't think they do, but I'm not willing to go out on a limb and say it with certainty.
Los Angeles Rams Predicted Win Total: OVER 6.5
I still think the Rams are quite a bit better than their record. IF Stafford returns healthy after the bye, Kyren Williams gets healthy and Cooper Kupp stays healthy, they can make a late-season push. The problem is obvious: that's a hell of a lot of "ifs."
I think they can beat Seattle this week and they still get to play the Cardinals, Giants, Commanders and Saints. None of those teams scare anyone. Ultimately, I think they do get to 7-10.
Washington Commanders Predicted Win Total: OVER 6.5
I was high on the Commanders coming into the season and I honestly thought seven wins was a slam-dunk. But, I'm starting to really sour on Ron Rivera as a head coach. I just don't think he has it. He had a couple of great seasons with Cam Newton, but since then it's been a whole lotta nothing.
It might surprise people to know that Rivera hasn't had a winning season in any of his past five and it's going to be six after this year. But, the question (for this article, at least) is whether or not they get to 7-10. They need three wins and have games left against both the Jets and Giants.
Many people consider Ron Rivera a great NFL coach, but his results don't say that at all. (Photo by John McDonnell/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
However, Rodgers could theoretically be back for the Jets game -- if he's to be believed that he's making the fastest Achilles recovery in history -- and they have to play the Cowboys twice and the 49ers. I lean that they won't quite get there, but I'd rather ride it out than just surrender the bet.
Arizona Cardinals Predicted Win Total: UNDER 4.5
Kyler Murray returned and the Cardinals got to three wins this week. I should probably surrender this bet, but I'm stubborn. They need two more wins to get to five and hit the over. Here are their remaining opponents: Texans, Rams, Steelers, 49ers, Bears, Eagles and Seahawks. Are there two wins in there? Probably. But not definitely. Let's ride this one out, too.
NFC teams where I'm 'surrendering' my preseason pick
Ok, here's the moment you've all eagerly been waiting for. Quite honestly, looking back, I think I did pretty well in the preseason on NFC teams. Of the 16 teams, I have a chance to get 12 of them correct. Not bad.
But these ones I did not get correct.
Detroit Lions Predicted Win Total: UNDER 9.5
Probably my worst pick of the preseason. I really thought the hype for the Lions was too high. That's my bad. It's too bad, too, because I talked up their roster all offseason. I just hated their draft and how much publicity they received. So, I faded them.
Whoops. They are going to win 10 games, probably rather easily. Definitely rather easily. They play the Bears, Packers, Saints, Bears and Broncos over the next four weeks. Hell, they might be 12-2 after Week 15. Then, they have two games against the Vikings sandwiched around a match with the Dallas Cowboys.
Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell and quarterback Jared Goff have the team in position to potentially capture the NFC regular season crown. (Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Not only is Detroit easily going over their win total, they have a legitimate shot at the #1 seed in the NFC. Their schedule sets up way better than the Philadelphia Eagles. Actually, that's probably the bet I would take. The Eagles are the odds-on favorite to get the #1 seed, and Detroit is around +350. Excuse me, while I go hammer that bet...
Carolina Panthers Predicted Win Total: OVER 7.5
OK, I revise my previous statement. THIS was my worst preseason prediction. Man, when I get stuff wrong, I get stuff WRONG. I really thought Bryce Young would play better than he has. Also, I thought Carolina's roster wasn't that bad and they just needed to get rid of Matt Rhule.
So far, that's not the case. Like, at all. To add insult to injury, the Panthers traded their 2024 first round pick -- which figures to be in the Top 3, at worst -- to the Chicago Bears. They don't even get to benefit from being terrible!
For what it's worth, I still think Bryce Young can be good, and the Panthers offensive line is ... offensively, bad. Plus, when Adam Thielen is your best receiver, that's not great either. The warning signs were there and I just didn't listen.
New York Giants Predicted Win Total: OVER 7.5
Oh, boy. The hits just keep on coming! I had the Panthers and the Giants combining for at least 16 wins this season. They might not hit five. There's nothing to add here. The Giants are terrible, but at least unlike the Panthers they own their 2024 NFL Draft pick. Which should also be Top 3, at worst.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predicted Win Total: UNDER 6.5
This one is close. I almost put it in the "stand pat" category because the Bucs still need to win three more games to make me wrong here. The problem is that two of those games are against the Carolina Panthers. Oh, and games against the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers. Plus, games against the Colts and Saints.
Could Tampa go 2-4 in those games while also losing to the 49ers and the Jaguars? Yeah, they could. But I think they're going to win at least three. And, I'm willing to admit that I just pegged them to be worse than they ended up being. Of my wrong picks, this is the least wrong. Ending on a high note!
Sort of?