NFL Week 4 Best Bets

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Had a rough Thursday night with nothing going our way, but that just means we get another opportunity to rebound. This week has some fun games, so let’s get to a side, a total, and a player prop.

Giants vs. Saints

The Giants are not that bad of a team. A couple of small breaks go their way and they could be sitting at 2-1 instead of 0-3. As bettors, we know that those breaks don’t matter though because they didn’t happen. This week it doesn’t get much easier as they take on the Saints. Jameis Winston has looked, well, a lot like himself this season, sometimes really talented, other times like he should be a backup. Winston will have a bit of difficulty against a better-than-expected Giants defensive line. For the Giants, they have almost every wide receiver on their team listed as questionable. At home, and against a team that is struggling overall, but also now ailing, the Saints are the right side in this one. To be clear, I expect all the Giants on the injury report to play, I just think the Saints are easily the better team in this one. Play New Orleans -7 at -115.

Lions vs. Bears

Two new-to-their-team quarterbacks does not bode very well for the offensive output. Detroit has not looked great on defense, but they’ve also faced much more talented teams than the Chicago Bears. In the first half of last week’s game, the Lions and Ravens combined for nine punts. In the second half, six of the seven drives resulted in points. I’m expecting this game to be similar to the first half with both offenses struggling to get going. Justin Fields probably will be a good quarterback. Right now, he is having difficulties reading the offense, and he has Matt Nagy calling plays. Bad combination for the Bears. Luckily their defense is keeping them relevant. Against the Lions expect the same. Play the under 41.5 (I will say I got this when it first opened at 45, but didn’t publish right away, still comfortable with this game being a 21-17 game). Not officially a play, but I like the Lions to win this game.

Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield is having a good start to the year. He’s averaging almost 280 passing yards per game, his team is 2-1 and he has a good matchup for him this weekend against the Vikings. We know that Minnesota can put up points, and will likely need to rely on Kirk Cousins because of the Browns strong rush defense. That could result in a lot of points scored in this one. An area Minnesota struggles in is passing defense. They’ve allowed over 290.3 yards through the air on average through three games. The lowest total was Joe Burrow’s 261 yards in the opener. Mayfield’s passing yardage is listed at 247.5, I like the over and am willing to pay the -130 juice on it.

For Fun Parlay: Jalen Hurts and Kyle Pitts touchdown anytime pays +692

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Written by David Troy

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