NBA Winning Wager 4-Pack For Wednesday, March 1

I've actually had to talk myself out of bets that's how much I like this Wednesday NBA slate. The games I did get to the betting window for include Nets-Knicks, Bucks-Magic, Lakers-Thunder, and Pelicans-Trail Blazers.

You can listen to the audio versions of these handicaps on my NBA Hoops At Lunch show on the OutKick Bets Podcast feed Monday-Friday.

BUYER BEWARE: We are in the NBA's "load management" era. It might be best to wait until the final injury reports are released before placing a bet.

Brooklyn Nets (34-27) at New York Knicks (36-27), 7:30 p.m. ET

The recent Over/Under (O/U) results for both teams are misleading and gives value to the OVER 223. NYK is 2-3 O/U in the last five games but have the 2nd-best offensive rating in the NBA in those contests.

Brooklyn is 3-2 O/U over that span and have the 2nd-worst defensive rating in the Association during that time. The Nets went Under the 231.5-point total vs. the Bucks last night in a 118-104 loss.

That had more to do with Milwaukee's sluggish start than anything Brooklyn did right defensively. Also, the Knicks are 15-7 O/U as home favorites this season with a +7.2 O/U margin.

New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson shoots a floater vs. the Brooklyn Nets at Madison Square Garden. (Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)

Knicks-Nets went Over the 218-point total in their last meeting on Feb. 13 after Brooklyn traded Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. NYK beat Brooklyn 124-106 and I expect a similar score Wednesday.

The Nets have struggled to grab defensive boards with their new players and the Knicks crash the offensive glass. NYK should get a lot of 2nd-chance points and easy putbacks.

New York's defensive rating is lower than its offensive rating and the Knicks are 25th in wide-open 3-point-attempt rate allowed. Perhaps the Nets connect on open 3-point looks and do their part in cashing our Over.

NBA Best Bet #1: OVER 223 in Nets-Knicks at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to 224

Odds for the OVER in Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, March 1st at 2 p.m. ET.

Orlando Magic (26-36) at Milwaukee Bucks (44-17), 8 p.m. ET

I cashed on a Bucks -6.5 bet last night (Tuesday) over the Nets and I'm riding the hot hand again Wednesday. Milwaukee has two streaks on the line for this home game vs. the Magic.

The Bucks are on a 15-game winning streak and they have won 12 straight over Orlando since 2018. Milwaukee is 8-4 against the spread (ATS) in those games with a +18.4 margin of victory (MoV) and +7.4 ATS margin.

I'm not sure why the Bucks were -6.5 Tuesday in Brooklyn but are only -7 at home vs. Magic team that's 10 games below .500. Maybe there's too much "Milwaukee on the 2nd of a back-to-back" baked into this line.

Giannis Antetokounmpo dribbles past Magic big Wendell Carter Jr. at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (John Fisher/Getty Images)

This season, the Bucks are 6-0-1 ATS on the 2nd of a back-to-back (B2B) with a +6.2 ATS margin and 19-11-1 ATS as home favorites with a +8.0 MoV.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is on a warpath and could be amped up to play against the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, Magic wing Paolo Banchero.

Aside from his two recent games affected by injury, Giannis has scored at least 33 points in 10 of his past 13 games.

Giannis is sending a message to the NBA amid all the Nikola Jokic MVP talk that he's still the best player in the world.

NBA Best Bet #2: Bucks -7 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -7.5

The Milwaukee Bucks' odds vs. the Orlando Magic from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, March 1st at 2 p.m. ET.

Los Angeles Lakers (29-33) at Oklahoma City Thunder (28-33), 8 p.m. ET

I don't know what the Lakers are doing but it doesn't look they are trying to win games. Not only have LeBron James and newly acquired PG D'Angelo Russell been ruled out, so has Anthony Davis.

The Thunder have lost four straight but we've seen fight out of them. Their B2B home losses to the Sacramento Kings were closer than the final score indicates.

OKC has been without All-Star PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) for the past three games. The Thunder upset the Lakers 133-130 last month in LA as 6.5-point underdogs when both teams were at full strength.

If you remember, the Thunder spoiled LeBron's historic night when he passed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the all-time NBA regular-season scoring mark.

LeBron James shoots to become the all-time NBA scoring leader, passing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar at 38,388 points vs. the Thunder at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

Even as SGA misses a 4th consecutive game, OKC should roll LAL. The Thunder are an NBA-best 9-4 ATS as home favorites with a +6.8 ATS margin.

The Lakers are a mess and the Thunder are 5th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and 3rd defensively. Without a true point guard, LAL is going to have clumsy ball-security.

OKC has a +1.1 net rating on the season (ranked 10th) whereas LAL has a -1.0 net rating (24th). You could argue the Thunder should be at least -4 at home vs. a healthy Lakers. Sans LeBron and AD, I'm willing to lay up to -5.5 with OKC on Wednesday.

NBA Best Bet #3: Thunder -4.5 (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder's odds vs. the Los Angeles Lakers from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, March 1st at 2 p.m. ET.

New Orleans Pelicans (30-32) at Portland Trail Blazers (29-32), 10 p.m. ET

This is just a vibe bet. I have a hunch the Pelicans are going to smack the Trail Blazers. This is a buy-low spot for NOLA that has lost four straight dating back to pre-All-Star break.

The Pelicans are only a half-game ahead of the Trail Blazers for the 10th and final play-in seed for the Western Conference playoffs. New Orleans needs this game like blood.

For that matter, so does Portland. But, the Trail Blazers look tired and too much is being asked of All-Star Damian Lillard. He scored 71 points vs. a tanking Rockets team.

Dame Time followed that up with a 25-point effort Tuesday in a 123-105 loss at the Warriors. Portland jumped out to 17-point 1st-half lead before getting routed in the 2nd half.

Damian Lillard looks to pass the ball during the game vs. the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center in San Francisco. (Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images)

All the trends favor the Trail Blazers in this game and they whooped the Pelicans 106-95 in their 1st meeting this season on Nov. 10. That was against a New Orleans team WITH Zion Williamson in the lineup and Portland was without Lillard.

However, Portland opened as 3.5-point favorites and have been lowered to the current number (-1.5). This is despite most of the action at DraftKings being on the Trail Blazers, according to VSIN.

At the end of the day, I'm relying on Brandon Ingram stepping up, C.J. McCollum in a revenge game and Portland's suspiciously only being -1.5 at home vs. a slumping NOLA squad.

NBA Best Bet #4: Pelicans +1.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to pick 'em

The New Orleans Pelicans' odds at the Portland Trail Blazers from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, March 1st at 2 p.m. ET.