Geoff Clark
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The 7-seed Los Angeles Lakers made it from a play-in team to the 2023 Western Conference Finals (WCF) to play the 1-seed Denver Nuggets in a rematch of their 2020 NBA Orlando Bubble WCF.
LAL made quick work of Denver at Disney World, winning 4-1 in their best-of-seven WCF. Lakers big Anthony Davis was the best player in that series and LeBron James was closer to his prime, if not in his prime.
That Lakers-Nuggets series was the year before Denver big Nikola Jokic won back-to-back NBA MVPs from 2020-22. Also, Nuggets PG Jamal Murray broke out in those bubble playoffs but missed the last two postseasons with a knee injury.
These teams split their head-to-head regular-season series 2-2 with the home team all the games. But, LAL was 2-1-1 against the spread with a +6.8 spread margin and the totals were 1-3 Over/Under (O/U) with a -6.8 O/U margin.
- Nuggets 110, Lakers 99 in Denver on Oct. 26, 2022.
- Lakers 121, Nuggets 110 in LA on Oct. 30, 2022.
- Lakers 126, Nuggets 108 in LA on Dec. 16, 2022.
- Nuggets 122, Lakers 109 in Denver on Jan. 9, 2022.
You have to take these results with a grain of salt though. All four Lakers-Nuggets regular-season meetings came before LAL upgraded their supporting cast at the Feb. 9th trade deadline.
Lakers-Nuggets Western Conference Finals 2023 Betting Odds
- Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Series Price
- Los Angeles Lakers (+135)
- Denver Nuggets (-160)
Series Spread
- Lakers +1.5 (-175)
- Nuggets -1.5 (+145)
Western Conference Finals 2023 Schedule
WCF handicap and best bet
The Nuggets are heads and shoulders above the next closest team in net efficiency in these playoffs. Per CleaningTheGlass.com, Denver is 1st in non-garbage time net rating at +10.3 and LA is 3rd at +4.8.
Also, talking heads have been hesitant to back Jokic and the Nuggets this postseason because they’ve never reached the NBA Finals. That said, there’s a good explanation for that: Jokic didn’t have enough help.
Jokic averaged 29.8 points per game (PPG) and 11.6 rebounds in the 2021 NBA playoffs but the Nuggets were missing Murray. He balled again last year with 31.0 PPG and 13.2 rebounds. Yet Denver was without Murray and SF Michael Porter Jr.
Not only are the Nuggets at full strength this time around but Jokic is on another planet. He is leading the NBA playoffs in Win Shares per 48, box +/-, VORP, and PER. Jokic is leading most of these stats by wide margins.
Denver’s moneyline (ML) for Game 1 is -245 and only -160 for the series. When you look at these MLs as percentages you’ll start to see value on the Nuggets.
They have a home-court advantage in this series and Denver’s implied win probability based on the ML for Game 1 is 71.0% and, for the WCF, 61.5%.
NBA 2023 EASTERN AND WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS MVP PICKS
The bottom line is it feels like Jokic’s year. Jokic is the best player in the NBA and got robbed out of a 3rd consecutive MVP. His playoff numbers are outrageous and Jokic finally has enough help.
As I said Sunday when breaking down the conference finals MVP odds, “Jokic to win the Western Conference Finals MVP” at -130 is a better look than the Nuggets (-160) to beat the Lakers in the WCF. But, both bets will cash.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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