Geoff Clark
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The sports betting situation is bleak now that the NBA and NHL are in their finals. That puts the MLB in the catbird seat for my gambling action. It’s a slim slate in the MLB on Monday however there’s betting value in a few matchups.
My favorite looks include an AL East matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays versus Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros visiting the Toronto Blue Jays. As of June 5, my MLB record sits at 36-36 but I’m down 2.1 units (u) because of the vig.
MLB Monday Looks
- Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tampa Bay Rays (42-19) at Boston Red Sox (30-29)
- First pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET.
- Venue: Fenway Ballpark in Boston.
I love how this game sets up for the UNDER 9 (-110). Everyone knows how good Rays LHP Shane McClanahan (8-1, 2.07 ERA) is but Red Sox RHP Brayan Bello (3-3, 3.89 ERA) is underrated.
Per Statcast, McClanahan grades in the 80th percentile or higher in K%, chase rate, whiff rate, and fastball velocity. All four of the pitches in McClanahan’s arsenal have a negative run value (RV), which is a good thing for McClanahan.
Bello has a lot of pitch movement and three of his four pitches have a negative RV. His exit velocity vs. Tampa’s active lineup is nearly six MPH better than McClanahan’s vs. Boston. Bello has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six straight starts.
Also, four of the seven Rays-Red Sox meetings in 2023 combined for nine or fewer runs. The Under has cashed in five of McClanahan’s six career starts vs. Boston.
Even casual MLB fans understand that Fenway Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball. Per Statcast, Fenway has the second-biggest park factor in MLB.
Boston is 21-10-1 Over/Under (O/U) at home this year. But, the weather forecast is pitcher-friendly. Temperatures at Fenway are expected to be in the high 50s Monday night with a double-digit mph blowing in from center field.
Finally, Pinnacle Sportsbook has the Over for Rays-Red Sox at +102. Pinnacle is a market-making shop that the legal U.S. sportsbooks copy and Pinnacle is trying to steer its whale clientele toward the Over in this game.
BET 1u on UNDER 9 in Rays-Red Sox (-115) at DraftKings
Houston Astros (35-24) at Toronto Blue Jays (33-27)
- First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET.
- Venue: Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
You have to take a second look at the Astros whenever they are underdogs. For the record, we are getting late to the party on Houston’s moneyline (ML). The Astros opened at +125 and are down to +100.
According to Pregame.com, the bets are split between Houston and Toronto. But, more than 80% of the money is on the Astros as of 10:45 a.m. ET.
The reason for the betting splits is that casual MLB fans are behind on how terrible Blue Jays RHP Alek Manaoh (1-6, 5.46 ERA) has been this season.
Per Statcast, Manaoh is in the 31st percentile or worse for hard-hit rate, K%, chase rate, whiff rate, BB%, expected ERA over expected wOBA, and expected slugging percentage.
Plus, Houston’s starter for Monday — RHP Brandon Bielak (2-2, 3.19 ERA) — isn’t a household name. The Astros are 0-3 on the road this season when Bielak starts but that’s not his fault.
The average score of those games is 3.33-0.67 in favor of Houston’s opponent and the Astros have only scored a combined two runs in Bielak’s three road outings this year.
Furthermore, Houston’s bullpen ranks 1st in K-BB%, 2nd in FIP (“fielding independent pitching”), and 5th in both HR/9 rate and WAR. The Astros rank ahead of the Blue Jays in all of those metrics.
BET 1u on Astros (+100) over Blue Jays from DraftKings
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
Love the call on the Boston under. Easy money, keep it coming.