MLB Best Bets for Monday, July 25, 2022

Not a good weekend on my end at all. After an acceptable Friday, we drop five of our six plays over the other two days. The Padres game looked fine for five innings before Musgrove fell apart. Nothing to do from here but move on.

Nationals vs. Dodgers

I've talked about this before, Tony Gonsolin has been dominant all year long. One cause for concern, his worst start was against the Cardinals and it happened right before the All-Star break. Oh, and how did the All-Star break go for him? Well, he allowed 3 earned runs in one inning. Outside of the Cardinals game, he didn't allow three earned runs in a game this season. Today he takes on the Nationals, a team that really should be concerned about, at least not offensively. Sure, they have major league hitters, so they can do damage in any game, but I really think Gonsolin just had a minor slip and returns to form. Nationals team total under 3.

Angels vs. Royals

Talk about two pitchers with unreal splits. Noah Syndergaard is a sub-3 ERA at home pitcher. On the road, he is nearly at 6! For whatever reason, on the road he just really struggles. On the other side of the ball, Zack Greinke is a 7.38 pitcher on the road, but at home he has just a 1.86 ERA. I really wish I knew what the difference was that caused something like this for the two pitchers. Greinke also has really drastic day/night splits with him pitching worse at night. But, this one, at a reasonable price, stands out that you should take the Royals. Syndergaard hasn't been good on the road, Greinke has been awesome at home. Sometimes we don't need to make it complicated.

Rangers vs. Mariners

Glenn Otto has been solid on the road this year for the Rangers and tonight he takes on a Seattle team he has faced twice before. He has allowed five earned in 11 innings against the Mariners, which isn't terrible. His last outing also came against them, a game the Rangers lost 6-2. Chris Flexen has been a nice surprise for the Mariners and has been solid at home. He is on a bit of a hot streak right in July, going three starts for 16.1 innings and allowing just two earned runs. He has only one start against the Rangers this season, he went for 3.2 innings and allowed just one earned. This is a smidge higher than I typically like to play, but I'll take the Mariners moneyline at -142.