MLB Division Series Betting Breakdown
After Wild Card series byes, the top two seeds from each league are ready to start their postseason. The MLB playoffs flip to a familiar format Tuesday, Oct. 11 when all four Division Series begin.
MLB.com
It's a 2-2-1 layout with the higher seed hosting the first two games followed by two games at the lower seed's home with the elimination game played at the higher seed's ballpark.
My Wild Card series bets went 2-0 while backing the biggest underdogs: San Diego Padres (+145) and Seattle Mariners (+140). Below, I'll run through the four Division Series with one best bet. Forewarning, there are going to be chalky pennant matchups.
National League Division Series
No. 6 Philadelphia Phillies vs. No. 2 Atlanta Braves
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Series Price (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Series Games Handicap
2022 Head-to-Head Record
The Braves lead 11-8 with a +3 run differential (88-85).
Starters
WAR (MLB Rank) per FanGraphs
Handicap
The Phillies have played the Braves tough this season and their top two starters could win one or both of their games. But, Philly doesn't have a reliable starter aside from Nola and Wheeler nor any recent postseason success.
Also, there are no leaks in Atlanta's roster and the Braves are my highest power-ranked team entering the divisional round. This Atlanta team is better than last year's World Series winner. That said, Atlanta's series games handicap would need to be +150 or better to have enough value.
PICK: Braves with no official bet
No. 5 San Diego Padres vs. No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers
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Series Price (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Series Games Handicap
2022 Head-to-Head Record
The Dodgers lead 14-5 with a +62 run differential (109-47).
Starters
WAR (MLB Rank) per FanGraphs
Handicap
I'd love to go with the Padres to get another upset since they were my pick to win the World Series at the beginning of the season. But, the Dodgers own them epically.
L.A. more than doubled San Diego in runs scored this season and has a decisive 3-phase edge in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
The Padres' top three starters give them a chance to take this series the distance with the Dodgers. Yet San Diego's series games handicap price of -150 is far too expensive.
It might be worth taking a shot on the Padres when they face Anderson or if this series gets to a Game 5 and Kershaw is starting.
San Diego is 2-2 vs. L.A. when Anderson starts this season and Kershaw has been known to come up short in the playoffs throughout his career.
PICK: Dodgers with no official bet
American League Division Series
No. 5 Seattle Mariners vs. No. 1 Houston Astros
MLB.com
Series Price (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Series Games Handicap
2022 Head-to-Head Record
The Astros lead 12-7 with a +8 run differential (73-65).
Starters
WAR (MLB Rank) per FanGraphs
Handicap
The Mariners are a year or two away from winning this series. Seattle has a few cornerstone everyday players and a top-three starting rotation in the AL. The Mariners' adding, and extending, Castillo at the trade deadline further bolstered their pitching staff.
The Astros are rightfully the favorite to make a third World Series in the last five seasons and their fifth consecutive championship series. Houston's pitching staff is the best in baseball and the Astros' hitting has obviously been there and done that.
There's a feistiness about Seattle that I like but Houston's pitching is just too good to fade.
PICK: "Lean" Mariners +1.5 (-135) series games handicap with no official bet
No. 4 Cleveland Guardians vs. No. 2 New York Yankees
MLB.com
Series Price (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Series Games Handicap
2022 Head-to-Head Record
The Yankees lead 5-1 with a +24 run differential (38-14).
Starters
WAR (MLB Rank) per FanGraphs
Handicap
N.Y. dominated Cleveland during the regular season and the Guardians have by far the weakest lineup remaining in the playoffs. There's a massive gap in hitting that favors N.Y.
In fact, the distance between the Yankees' batting WAR and the Guardians' is the same between Cleveland's and the 24th-best hitting WAR in MLB. Aside from superstar Cleveland 3B Jose Ramirez, who are the Yankees afraid of?
Furthermore, Cole's struggles with the long ball make him a little undervalued. While Cole led the AL in home runs allowed, he also led MLB in strikeouts. Cole is 4-1 vs. the Guardians since joining the Yankees and 2-0 this season.
Starting Cortes in between Cole and Severino is the perfect change of pace. Cole and Severino are power pitchers whose fastballs top out at 100 mph. Cortes likes to keep hitters off balance with different throwing angles and pitching wind-ups. Also, Cleveland can't hit left-handed pitching.
BET: YANKEES -1.5 (+120) series games handicap
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, Oct. 10 at 1:30 p.m. ET