MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Another 2-1 day for us, but it was nice to rebound from the loss on Monday. On we go to the Wednesday slate.

Reds at Brewers

The Reds are a terrible baseball team. When I say terrible, I mean they are literally the worst team in baseball. They have five fewer wins than any other team in baseball. That’s crazy for this time of the season. Vladimir Gutierrez is throwing for the Reds and he has yet to make it out of the first four innings of the game. He has had success against the Brewers in the past, though. He’s held them to a .135 batting average. Freddy Peralta has a better season than his ERA suggests. It is inflated because he allowed six earned runs in three innings against the Cardinals in his second start. Since then, he has gone 11 innings allowing just six hits and one earned run. He’s also held Reds hitters to just a .192 batting average. I’d lean under on the game as a whole, but instead, I’m taking the Brewers to win by more than a run at -126.

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White Sox at Cubs

Speaking of bad teams… The Cubs are a bad team, still, despite being the fourth most valuable franchise in baseball. But, that’s what happens when free-agent signings go wrong, the owner starts focusing on purchasing a soccer team, and you win a World Series and decide you have a few years to not care about your fan base. On the other side of town, the White Sox are a good team, but they are off to a bad start. One of their few bright spots has been Lucas Giolito. Giolito has been decent to start the season. In a few starts against the Cubs, he’s been hit fairly hard. I think this game has runs scored. I’ll play the over 7 runs at +100.

Pirates at Tigers

A doubleheader is happening in Detroit today. Alex Faedo is making his debut for the Tigers and it is coming against the soft-hitting Pirates. I normally don’t like taking a pitcher’s debut, because you really never know what to expect – even if they are a top-tier prospect, it can be hard to know how their nerves will be in the first game on the big league mound. I do like this spot for Faedo though. He opposes Jose Quintana, who has had a nice start to his Pirates career. He’s not going deep into games, but he is going almost half of the game, which is good for us, because that’s where we are looking. I think Faedo goes through the lineup without much harm at least once. Then he might be hit starting in the fourth or fifth, but the bullpen might be there to save the day. Quintana should go five innings without allowing too many runs. I’ll take the under 4 runs through five innings at -105.

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Written by David Troy

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