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MLB Best Bets for Friday, October 1, 2021

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I said we were going to try and go 12-0 with our last four days of the regular season. Can’t do that if we didn’t start 3-0. We did. Let’s keep it rolling.

Angels vs. Mariners

The Mariners are tied for the second wild card with the Boston Red Sox who just lost two of three to the lowly Baltimore Orioles. The Yankees are two games up on everyone for the first wild card spot but keep in mind, they play Tampa. All of this is to say, these games for the Mariners, well they are super important that they win. Unfortunately for them, tonight they will not win. Jose Suarez is throwing for the Angels tonight and brings with him a modest 3.18 road ERA. He’s faced the Mariners 12.1’s worth of baseball this year and has allowed six earned runs. Four of them came in his last outing against them. Marco Gonzalez goes for the Mariners and he’s been fine overall, coming in with a 4.00 overall ERA. In two matchups against the Angels, he’s been very strong, going 12.2 and allowing just two earned runs. Tonight is a night I think the Angels play spoiler and take advantage of the opportunities they missed against Gonzalez last week. Play the Angels at +136 .

Detroit vs. White Sox

Maybe I’m crazy, but I still think Lance Lynn deserves the Cy Young award for the White Sox. Lynn has a 2.72 ERA and has been really dominant in almost every start this year. Aside from one bad start a month (that is usually really bad), he has been outstanding. He’s faced the Tigers twice this year and went six innings in both starts, allowing just one run in each of them. Today he gets another shot against them. The wind is blowing in, and quite frankly you don’t need much more analysis than the wind blowing in and Lance Lynn at home against the Tigers. Play the Tigers under 3 runs at -105, the value is there. (I’m not opposed to the total game under 8.5, if you prefer some buffer) .

Oakland vs. Houston

In what is another tune-up game for the Houston Astros, they take on the basically eliminated Athletics. It is a good pitching matchup though. For the Athletics, you’ve got Sean Manaea, a lefty that just threw seven one-run innings against the Astros. This will be his sixth start against them and he has just a 3.89 ERA – which is good considering the Astros are one of the best lefty-hitting teams in baseball. Framber Valdez goes for the Astros and should go five or six as he gets ready for the Divisional Series. With a 2.98 ERA you can see that he clearly is having a nice campaign. He’s facing the Athletics for the third time, and he had one disappointing start and one (his last start) very successful. I think the A’s aren’t in it, and the Astros just want to stay healthy. Play the under 8.5 at -110 .

Written by David Troy

David is a marketing professional and former adjunct professor from Chicago, IL, husband, and father. He is an avid sports lover that has turned his focus to sports betting after originally developing a love for risk, statistics, and gambling from the Texas Hold'em Poker boom. He loves interacting with people and talking about pop culture, and obviously sports. When he isn't watching sports, he's probably coaching his kids, drinking tequila, or watching movies and tv. David may not always be right, but he will give you reasons why he is doing what he does.

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