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We head to Jack’s Place this week for the PGA Tour’s next “elevated event”. The 2023 Memorial Tournament tees off Thursday, June 2 at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio.
Legend, Jack Nicklaus, founded this tournament and designed Muirfield. The Memorial is one of the five PGA Tour events that is an “invitational”. The PGA Tour’s best will be at Jack’s Place this week but only 120 golfers are in the field.
Muirfield is a tree-lined Par 72 course with Bent grass greens and long and penal rough that was extended to 7,543 yards in 2020. Per Golfweek, Muirfield has the 3rd-most water balls of any PGA Tour course since 2003.
Previous Memorial champions (odds via GolfOdds.com)
- 2022: Billy Horschel -14 (+6000) by four strokes over Aaron Wise.
- 2021: Patrick Cantlay -13 (+2000) in a playoff over Collin Morikawa.
- 2020: Jon Rahm -9 (+2000) by three strokes over Ryan Palmer.
- 2019: Patrick Cantlay -19 (+1400) by two strokes over Adam Scott.
- 2018: Bryson DeChambeau -15 (+4000) in a playoff over Byeong Hun An and Kyle Stanley.
The last five Memorial winners have an average odds of +3000 with an average winning score of -14 and an average cut-line of +3. Five of the last nine Memorials have been decided in a playoff.
Comp courses to Muirfield Village Golf Club
- Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) for the Valspar Championship
- Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage
- TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS Championship
- TPC Southwind for the FedEx St. Jude Championship
- Augusta National for The Masters
- Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Before, I get into who I’m betting this week at the Memorial, let me gloat about last week. I hit my fifth outright of the season when Emiliano Grillo (+8000) won the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge.
All-in-all, I added 13.82 units (u) to my PGA Tour 2022-23 bankroll. My balance for this wraparound season on Tour is still -2.25u. The recap of my Charles Schwab bet slip is at the bottom.
Memorial ‘Starting 5’
- All stats courtesy of FantasyNational.com unless otherwise noted.
Pro Tip: Look for sportsbooks that offer full payouts for placement bets instead of applying “dead heat rules”. Also, always shop around for the best number.
Even though Schauffele is fifth in the Official World Golf Rankings and always pops on my weekly golf models, I usually pass on Xander.
But, I just have a gut feeling that Schauffele contends at Muirfield this week. Xander is second in my key stat model over the last 36 rounds and third in my Memorial power rankings.
Schauffele ranks in the top 10 of this field for Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP), SG: Ball-Striking, (BS) Par 5 scoring, Par 4 Efficiency (EFF): 450-500 yards and Greens-in-Regulation (GIRs) Gained.
Moreover, Schauffele is 7th in this field for total SG at the Memorial and sixth at comp courses to Muirfield, both over the last 24 rounds. He is 4th in total SG in his last six events.
Xander has finished T18 or better in four straight Memorial starts. However, because of the LIV Tour defections, this field at Memorial is actually weaker than last year’s.
Schauffele was T18 at the 2023 PGA Championship and T2 at the Wells Fargo earlier this month. He finished T4 at the RBC Heritage and T10 at The Masters in April.
1st roster spot for the Memorial: Xander Schauffele
- 0.5 units (u) on Win: +1400
- 0.75u on Top-5: +280
Hatton is sixth on my Memorial Tournament power rankings. He ranks 4th in my key stat model over the last 36 rounds. Tyrrell is 7th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 13th for GIRs Gained during that stretch.
Also, Hatton is in great form — sixth in total SG over the last 24 rounds — and I rarely bet him. Hatton finished T15 at the PGA Championship, T5 at the AT&T Byron Nelson, and T3 at the Wells Fargo.
Tyrrell is fourth in total SG at comp courses to Muirfield as well. His only PGA Tour win came at the 2020 Arnold Palmer. Hatton also finished T2 at the 2022 Arnold Palmer and T2 at THE PLAYERS Championship in March.
Finally, Hatton is 14th in SG: Putting on Bent grass greens over the last 12 rounds and SG: Putting on firm and fast greens.
2nd roster spot for the Memorial: Tyrrell Hatton
- 0.25u on Win: +2500
- 0.25u on Top-5: +600
- 0.75u on Top-20: +275
This will be the Revenge of ‘Deki. His 1st PGA Tour win was the 2014 Memorial Tournament and Matsuyama was DQ’d in the 1st round of last year’s Memorial after marking up one of his club face heads.
Jack Nicklaus’ biggest inspiration for designing Muirfield is Augusta for the Masters. Well, Matsuyama won the green jacket in 2021. With that in mind, Hideki is 5th in total SG at comp courses to Muirfield.
Also, Matsuyama is in great recent form. He was 8th in SG: T2G at the 2023 PGA Championship. He was -5.7 SG: Putting though, which was the 2nd-worst in the entire event and he still finished T29.
Furthermore, Matsuyama was 16th at The Masters in April and fifth at THE PLAYERS Championship, both of which play at comp courses to Muirfield.
Hideki is 3rd in total SG in this field at long Par 72 courses with difficult scoring conditions over the last 50 rounds and 5th in Par 4 EFF: 450-500 yards.
Over the last 36 rounds, Hideki is 8th in my key stat model. Matsuyama is 4th in Proximity (PROX): 150-175 yards, 6th in PROX: 175-200 yards, 3rd in Scrambling, and 11th in SG: Around-the-Green over that span.
3rd roster spot for the Memorial: Hideki Matsuyama
- 0.2u on Win: +4000
- 0.2u on Top-5: +700
- 0.8u on Top-20: +155
Rickie is a value bet. He is 5th on my Memorial power rankings but is tied with three other golfers for the 14th-best odds to win this week.
Over the last 36 rounds, Fowler is 8th in my key stat model including 6th in SG: APP, 16th in Scrambling, 17th in Par 5 scoring, and 15th in SG: BS.
Fowler is 10th in total SG over his last 24 rounds at Muirfield. Rickie finished T2 twice at Memorial (2010 and 2017), T11 in 2021, and T8 in 2018.
Rickie has re-tooled his swing and has revitalized his career. He is 11th in total SG on the PGA Tour this season and 8th in total SG over the last 24 rounds.
Fowler has finished T15 or better in five of his last six starts including a T6 at last week’s Charles Schwab and T13 at THE PLAYERS Championship in March.
4th roster spot for the Memorial: Rickie Fowler
- 0.2u on Win: +4000
- 0.2u on Top-5: +700
- 0.8u on Top-20: +150
This is a heat check and Grillo is now “one of my guys” after winning the Charles Schwab last week. Grillo has been an above-average ball striker but struggles with the putter.
EMILIANO GRILLO HANDLES WILD 72ND HOLE MELTDOWN WITH UTMOST CLASS, KARMA REWARDS HIM WITH PLAYOFF VICTORY
However, Grillo picked up 7.4 strokes on the greens at Colonial last week, which also has Bent grass, and 3.1 strokes per event in his last five starts.
Grillo’s four top-five finishes this season are only behind World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, No. 2 Jon Rahm, No. 4 Patrick Cantlay, and Schauffele.
5th roster spot for the Memorial: Emiliano Grillo
- 0.1u on Win: +12000
- 0.5u on Top-20: +340
2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Recap: +11.57 units
“Starting 5” (+11.67u)
- Emiliano Grillo 🥇: +13.82u 💰
- Win & Top-20
- Justin Rose, T12 : +0.48u 💰
- Win, Top-10 & Top-20
- Collin Morikawa, T29: -1.25u ❌
- Win & Top-10
- Tom Hoge, T52: -0.75u ❌
- Win & Top-20
- Ashkay Bhatia, 56th: -0.63u ❌
- Win & Top-20
Head-to-Head Tournament Matchups (-0.1u)
- Hayden Buckley > P. Rodgers: -1.1u ❌
- Rickie Fowler > S. Burns 🔪
- Andrew Putnam > D. McCarthy (+1u) 💰
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