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The leaderboard of the 2023 Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio entering Sunday’s final round is stacked. World No. 3 Rory McIlroy is in a 3-way tie after Saturday at -6 with Si Woo Kim and David Lipsky.
Other notables lurking are World No. 6 Viktor Hovland, Wyndham Clark, two-time major champion Collin Morikawa, World No. 4 Patrick Cantlay, and 2021 Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama.
During the Round 3 telecast, Memorial host Jack Nicklaus told CBS broadcaster Jim Nantz that anyone under par entering Round 4 can win this event.
2023 Memorial Tournament odds after Round 3
- Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Matsuyama is the only golfer on this list that made my 2023 Memorial betting card. Hideki was in the final group Saturday and just one stroke back of the lead at -7.
After back-to-back birdies to start the third round, things unraveled for Matsuyama. He bogeyed Holes No. 8-10, birdied the 11th hole then hit a water ball at No. 12 en route to a triple bogey.
It was pretty much nightmare fuel for me. In fact, the only one of my Memorial starting 5 that wasn’t over par Saturday was Xander Schauffele who shot even-par in Round 3.
The good news is I’m playing with house money when it comes to tournament matchup bets. Two of my three head-to-heads cashed Friday when Cameron Young and Tom Kim both missed the cut.
I’m going to use my surplus to possibly mitigate an upcoming loss at the 2023 Memorial. Here are a few Round 4 tournament looks I’m adding to my Memorial betting card.
Jon Rahm (-105) > Scottie Scheffler
This is a case of “wrong golfer favored”. Scheffler is World No. 1 but his putting has been the thing holding him back all season. Rahm on the other hand is much more reliable on the greens.
Scheffler ranks 114th in Strokes Gained (SG): Putting on the PGA Tour this season and Rahm is 7th. According to DataGolf.com, Scheffler is having the worst putting week on the greens of any golfer that made the cut at the Memorial.
While Scheffler is the best ball striker in the world, Rahm is right on his tail. At the 2023 Memorial, Scheffler ranks 2nd for SG: Approach (APP) and 1st in SG: Tee-to-Green (T2G). But, Rahm is 3rd in SG: APP and 4th in SG: T2G.
Also, Rahm was the top golfer in my Memorial power rankings pre-tournament and Scheffler was 2nd. Rahm won the 2020 Memorial and ranks 5th in SG: Putting on Bent greens over the last 12 rounds, per FantasyNational.com.
Bet: 0.5 units (u) on Jon Rahm over Scottie Scheffler in Round 4 of the Memorial (-105)
Luke List (+100) > Matt Wallace
Speaking of “terrible putters,” List takes the cake in that regard. List is having the 3rd-worst putting showing on Tour this season and Wallace ain’t much better. Wallace ranks 149th out of 198 golfers in SG: Putting.
This week at Muirfield, List is having his usual performance on the greens. List ranks 63rd in SG: Putting out of the 66 golfers that made the cut at the Memorial, according to DataGolf.com.
Wallace on the other hand is 15th in SG: Putting. However, Wallace ranks 62nd in SG: APP and 57th in SG: T2G while List is 9th in SG: APP and 11th in SG: T2G.
With that in mind, golfers are much more likely to post big numbers if they are errant off the tee or with approach shots. This is why iron play (APP) is the most predictive stat in golf handicapping.
As long as List doesn’t puke all over himself on the greens, which he might, List’s shot-making ability is much better than Wallace’s.
Bet: 0.5 units (u) on Luke List over Matt Wallace in Round 4 of the Memorial (+100)
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