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The 5-seed Seattle Mariners head to Minute Maid Park Tuesday for Game 1 of their American League Division Series at the 1-seed Houston Astros.
Seattle RHP Logan Gilbert (13-6, 3.20 ERA) takes the mound for the Mariners while future Hall of Fame RHP Justin Verlander (18-4, 1.75 ERA) is Houston’s starter for Game 1.
The Astros had a bye as the AL’s 1-seed. The Mariners eliminated the 4-seed Toronto Blue Jays 2-0 in their best-of-three wild-card series to advance to the ALDS. Houston won the regular-season series with Seattle 12-7 and had a +8 run differential (73-65).
Betting Details (DraftKings)
BET: Mariners +1.5 (-125) & SPRINKLE: Seattle’s ML (+185)
The gap between the Mariners and the Astros isn’t as big as the line suggests. In fact, Seattle has the second-best return on investment (ROI) vs. righty starters at +5.9%. Houston is 11th with a -2.0% ROI against right-handed starters.
Gilbert has nasty stuff and has been almost as sharp recently. He is 3-1 straight up (SU) in his last seven starts with a 2.13 ERA and Verlander is 3-1 with a 1.83 ERA.
Also, this has been a profitable spot for Gilbert and the Mariners all season. Seattle is 9-5 SU (+40.8% ROI) and RL (with a +2.3 RL margin) as underdogs with Gilbert on the mound this season.
Finally, both ball clubs have top-tier bullpens and both lineups are neck-and-neck vs. right-handed pitching in several advanced hitting metrics.
Houston’s bullpen has the best ERA in MLB but Seattle’s is sixth (3.33-2.80 ERA). The Astros are ninth in wRC+ against righties and the Mariners are 10th (107-106), according to FanGraphs.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the MARINERS +1.5 (-125) and SPRINKLE on the MARINERS (+185) to win outright.
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