Mariners Keep ALDS Game 1 Close Vs. Astros Tuesday

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The 5-seed Seattle Mariners head to Minute Maid Park Tuesday for Game 1 of their American League Division Series at the 1-seed Houston Astros.

Seattle RHP Logan Gilbert (13-6, 3.20 ERA) takes the mound for the Mariners while future Hall of Fame RHP Justin Verlander (18-4, 1.75 ERA) is Houston’s starter for Game 1.

The Astros had a bye as the AL’s 1-seed. The Mariners eliminated the 4-seed Toronto Blue Jays 2-0 in their best-of-three wild-card series to advance to the ALDS. Houston won the regular-season series with Seattle 12-7 and had a +8 run differential (73-65).

Betting Details (DraftKings)

BET: Mariners +1.5 (-125) & SPRINKLE: Seattle’s ML (+185)

Mariners SP Logan Gilbert (Alika Jenner/Getty Images)

The gap between the Mariners and the Astros isn’t as big as the line suggests. In fact, Seattle has the second-best return on investment (ROI) vs. righty starters at +5.9%. Houston is 11th with a -2.0% ROI against right-handed starters.

Gilbert has nasty stuff and has been almost as sharp recently. He is 3-1 straight up (SU) in his last seven starts with a 2.13 ERA and Verlander is 3-1 with a 1.83 ERA.

Also, this has been a profitable spot for Gilbert and the Mariners all season. Seattle is 9-5 SU (+40.8% ROI) and RL (with a +2.3 RL margin) as underdogs with Gilbert on the mound this season.

Finally, both ball clubs have top-tier bullpens and both lineups are neck-and-neck vs. right-handed pitching in several advanced hitting metrics.

Houston’s bullpen has the best ERA in MLB but Seattle’s is sixth (3.33-2.80 ERA). The Astros are ninth in wRC+ against righties and the Mariners are 10th (107-106), according to FanGraphs.

Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the MARINERS +1.5 (-125) and SPRINKLE on the MARINERS (+185) to win outright.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, Oct. 11 at 10:30 a.m. ET

Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.

Written by Geoff Clark

Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events.

Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB.

Clark graduated from St. John University.

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