Geoff Clark
Videos by OutKick
I bet the 4-seed Phoenix Suns (1-2) to beat the 1-seed Denver Nuggets (2-1) in this Western Conference Semifinal pre-series and look kind of foolish. The only thing I got right was Denver not being able to stop Devin Booker.
The Nuggets look like the better team and I’m shook by the betting market. The Suns feel like the sucker side in Game 4 and I don’t want to walk into a trap.
What really disappoints me is I’m usually a “continuity guy,” which the Suns lack. Phoenix’s new owner immediately traded for Kevin Durant after purchasing the Suns and gutted their depth.
Nuggets PG Jamal Murray has been great in two of the games, Michael Porter Jr. knows his role as a floor-spacing 3-point shooter and Denver’s bench is significantly out-playing Phoenix’s.
Denver has an identity and the Nuggets have been perfecting their rotation for months. They are winning all “four factors” vs. the Suns in this series and Nikola Jokic is clearly the best player.
But, Devin Booker is right behind him. In fact, Booker is second to Jokic Win Shares Per 48 in these playoffs. Booker is first in both PER and VORP, according to Basketball Reference.
Phoenix Suns Devin Booker OVER 31.5 points prop
The big reason why I took Phoenix to win this series is Denver can’t stop Booker. Nuggets F Aaron Gordon is an All-NBA-caliber defender but KD is Gordon’s chief responsibility.
That puts Denver SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in charge of stopping Booker. KCP is a good on-ball defender. However, Booker is a top-five scorer in the NBA and is dominating Caldwell-Pope.
Booker is scoring 36.3 points per game in this series on 69.2% true shooting (.603/.529/.953). To be fair, the LA Clippers could stop Booker either. He lit the Clippers up for 37.2 PPG on 60.2% shooting in the 1st-round of the playoffs.
Booker’s body control on drives and finishing around the rim are incredible. His fadeaway jumpers are unstoppable and his shooting range is unlimited. Booker is wearing KCP out.
Also, Game 4 is a must-win for the Suns. They cannot come back from down 3-1 with Chris Paul most likely out injured. Booker should be out there for at least 40 minutes if Phoenix needs him to be.
I know this is a square bet. Obviously, 31.5 points is a big number and Booker just scored 47 on only 25 shots. It’s hard to duplicate that effort and Denver will make defensive adjustments for Game 4.
However, Phoenix doesn’t have a real point guard and Deandre Ayton is getting wrecked by Jokic. It would be a fireable offense if Suns coach Monty Williams didn’t play solely through Booker and KD Sunday.
BET: Suns’ Devin Booker OVER 31.5 Points vs. Nuggets in Game 4
- Betting strategy: Always shop around for the best number.
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