Geoff Clark
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Few people have noticed but the Baltimore Orioles (19-9) are actually good this season. Baltimore is second in the AL East and 3.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays. The Orioles start a three-game set with the Kansas City Royals (7-22) on Tuesday.
The Orioles send out RHP Tyler Wells (1-1, 2.79 ERA) and Wells is a starter I’m high on. Wells leads MLB in WHIP (0.72) and grades above average in BB%, chase rate, and hard-hit rate, according to Statcast.
The Royals counter with LHP Ryan Yarbrough (0-3, 6.35 ERA) who is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Per Statcast, Yarbrough is in the bottom-16th percentile or worse in chase rate, whiff rate, K%, and expected batting average.
Orioles vs. Royals Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.
First of all, Baltimore’s lineup rakes lefties. According to FanGraphs, the Orioles rank seventh in both wRC+ (122) and wOBA (.346), 4th in ISO (.186), and 5th in BB/K rate vs. left-handed pitching.
KC’s lineup ranks dead last in wRC+ (61), wOBA (.262), BB/K rate (0.24), and 29th in ISO (.108) against right-handed pitching. Also, the Orioles are 9-4 straight up (SU) vs. lefties and the Royals are 5-17 vs. righties.
Baltimore being a road favorite is still a new thing. Since 2022, the Orioles are 3-0 SU and on the run line (RL) as road favorites when Wells gets the start. Baltimore has a +3.0 margin of victory in those games.
This is Yarbrough’s second start this season but he has seven bullpen appearances. The most Yarbrough has pitched in a game this season is four innings. If Yarbrough doesn’t give the Royals a “quality start” they are in trouble.
Kansas City’s bullpen is 24th in FIP (“fielding independent pitching”), 26th in HR/9 rate, 24th in WAR, and 29th in hard-hit rate. Baltimore’s bullpen ranks 1st in both FIP and WAR and 6th in both HR/9 and hard-hit rates.
There has been sharp line movement in the betting market toward Baltimore. Per Pregame.com, more than 90% of the action is on the Orioles RL. Baltimore’s RL has been increased from a +105 opener up to the current number.
I’m okay with following a crowd in MLB betting because who’s moving the lines for an Orioles-Royals game on May 2nd? The public isn’t betting on this game, it’s mostly professional MLB handicappers.
BET: Orioles -1.5 (-105) RL at DraftKings, up to -115
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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