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A matchup between two ranked foes highlights Saturday’s Big XII slate when the No. 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-0, 2-0 in Big XII) visit the No. 13 TCU Horned Frogs (5-0, 2-0 in Big XII) at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
OK State needed a second-half rally to beat the Texas Tech Red Raiders 41-31 at home last week but failed to cover as 11-point favorites. The Cowboys were outgained in total yards, had fewer 1st downs, and had less time of possession than Texas Tech.
TCU beat the No. 19 Kansas Jayhawks 38-31 on the road Saturday and pushed as 7-point favorites on the closing line. The Horned Frogs were aided by getting to face Kansas’s backup QB Jason Bean after starting QB Jalon Daniels got injured.
Last season, OK State beat the brakes off of TCU 63-17 at home. The Horned Frogs had an interim head coach after firing longtime head coach Gary Patterson mid-season. The Cowboys had one of the best defenses in the country in 2021.
That said, OK State’s defense isn’t nearly as good this season, TCU now has a stud under center and the betting market is saying the Horned Frogs are the sharp side.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma State (+150), TCU (-175)
- Against the spread (ATS): Oklahoma State +4 (-110), TCU -4 (-110)
- Total (O/U) — 68.5 — O: -110, U: -110
BET: TCU -4 (-110), up to the -4.5
Horned Frogs QB Max Duggan is comfortably the best quarterback in the conference. Duggan leads the Big XII in completion rate, yards per pass attempt, QB Rating, and expected points added per play (EPA/play).
However, Duggan didn’t play in TCU’s thrashing at the hands of OK State last season. Obviously, if the Cowboys score 63 points again Saturday then Duggan and the Horned Frogs aren’t winning. But, TCU returned most of its team from last year’s squad, which will have revenge on its mind.
In fact, TCU ranks ninth in returning production per ESPN whereas Oklahoma State ranks 118th and 128th on defense. The Cowboys have gone from fifth in defensive EPA/play in 2021 to 69th this year.
More importantly, the sharps are backing TCU. Per Pregame.com, roughly 60% of the money is on the Horned Frogs whereas nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on OK State at the time of publishing. Typically, the cash column represents professional money and the tickets column is the public.
Also, TCU has better efficiency. The Horned Frogs have a higher net EPA/play and net success rate than the Cowboys. Sports Reference grades TCU higher than OK State in its SRS formula, which accounts for point differential and strength of schedule.
Finally, the home team has covered four straight in the OK State-TCU series and the Horned Frogs upset the Cowboys in their last two meetings at TCU.
BET the TCU HORNED FROGS -4 (-110) at DraftKings Sportbook.
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