Lakers Will Get The Win (And Cover) They Need Vs. Nuggets In Game 3

The Los Angeles Lakers (0-2) almost won both games at the Denver Nuggets (2-0) to start the 2023 Western Conference Finals (WCF). The Nuggets held serve at home but the WCF heads to the City of Angels for Game 3 Saturday.

After Game 1’s shootout, Denver beat LAL 108-103 in a Game 2 rock fight. Nuggets big Nikola Jokic had a subpar game by his standards. Jokic scored 23 points Thursday on 9-of-21 shooting.

Nuggets C Nikola Jokic handles the ball in the high post with Lakers F Rui Hachimura on defense during Game 2 of the 2023 WCF at the Ball Arena in Denver. (Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images)

Nuggets PG Jamal Murray saved the day for Denver by scoring a game-high 37 points thanks to a 4th-quarter outburst. Also, the Lakers spoiled another good Rui Hachimura-Austin Reaves Game.

Hachimura scored 21 points on 80.0% shooting and Reaves put up 22 points on 50.0% shooting (5-of-9 from behind the arc). They combined for 40 points in Game 1 on 60.0% shooting (15-of-25 from the field).

Nuggets At Lakers Game 3 odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting odds for the Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets Game 3 in the 2023 Western Conference Finals as of 3:10 a.m. ET Friday, May 19th from DraftKings.

Just above every team out West sucked on the road including the Nuggets. They are 21-25 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) on the road this season including the playoffs. Denver has a -2.4 SU margin and a -3.4 ATS margin in road games. 

Home favorites of -4 or more down 0-2 going into Game 3 are 5-2 SU (+10.3 SU margin) and ATS (+5.1 ATS margin) in the past three postseasons. 

Davis and LeBron look on during Game 2 of the 2023 Western Conference Finals at the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. (Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)

The Golden State Warriors crushed the Sacramento Kings 114-97 at home in Game 3 in the 1st round. And these very Nuggets lost 121-114 to the Phoenix Suns in Game 3 in the Western Conference Semifinals. 

Also, the Lakers are 6-0 SU (+18.3 SU margin) and ATS (+14.6 ATS margin) at home in these playoffs. 

Lakeshow was a Jamal Murray eruption away from stealing Game 2

Murray doesn’t go ballistic in the 4th quarter Thursday and scores 23 points, this series is tied going to LA. Honestly, I’m not really a Jamal Murray guy.

He shoots too many unnecessary, tough contested jumpers when he should be passing it to Jokic. Let’s just say, Murray can play a little bit but I think he’s overrated.

Murray celebrates a big bucket Thursday in the Western Conference Finals at the Ball Arena in Denver. (Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images)

Furthermore, LAL’s perimeter and half-court defense is top-notch. The Lakers have two above-average defense guards Dennis Schroder and Reaves and Murray is a streaky shooter.

Plus, since Game 3 is a must-win for the Lakers, I expect to see a great defensive effort out of LA. LeBron James was laying bricks out there in Game 2.

LeBron shot 0-for-6 from 3-point land and smoked a layup with 26.1 seconds remaining down 103-99. But, LeBron was moving well, got good looks and I expect him to bounce back Saturday. 

LeBron James drives to the basket vs. the Denver Nuggets in Game 2 of the 2023 Western Conference Finals. (Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)

Speaking of which, Anthony Every Other Davis almost can’t play worse in Game 3. He sucked in Game 2: Davis scored 18 points on 4-of-15 shooting. AD still shined defensively yet LAL needs him to get buckets to beat the Nuggets.

Denver isn't a deep team and role players generally play better at home. Granted, the Lakers got more than they asked for from Hachimura and Reaves. But, Schroder and Lakers PG D'Angelo Russell are due for slump-busting games.

BET: Lakers -5 (-110), up to -6 at DraftKings

The LA Lakers' odds to beat the Denver Nuggets in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals as of Friday morning, May 19th from DraftKings.

PS Player Prop: Lakers big Anthony Davis Point Prop: 24.5

Denver has one of the worst interior defenses in the NBA. No offense to Jokic but he’s not a good enough rim protector to stop Davis.

Per CleaningTheGlass.com, the Nuggets had a 70.9% defensive field goal rate vs. shots at the rim during the regular season. That was the 2nd-worst in the NBA.

Davis shoots a fadeaway jumper over Jokic during Game 2 of the 2023 Western Conference Finals. (Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)

AD faced the 2022-23 NBA Defensive Player of the Year in the 1st round (Grizzlies big Jaren Jackson Jr.) and an all-time defender in the 2nd round (Warriors F Draymond Green). 

Davis lit up Denver’s defense for 40 points in Game 1 on 14-of-23 shooting and 11-for-11 from the charity stripe. AD also got to the foul line 11 times in Game 2 and he’s being aggressive.

More shots should fall for AD Saturday. He is shooting 53.9% from the field in these playoffs and 56.3% during the regular season. If Davis hit four more shots in Game 2, he would’ve scored 26 points and still shot below average. 

Lastly, AD needs to make Jokic work defensively to tire him out. Davis isn’t going to shut Jokic down. The Joker is too good but AD could out-score him. I’d argue Davis, when healthy, is the 2nd-best big in the NBA behind Jokic. 

BET: Lakers big Anthony Davis OVER 24.5 points (-115) at DraftKings

Odds for the Over in Lakers C Anthony Davis' point prop in Game 2 vs. the Nuggets from DraftKings.