in , ,

How Not to Get Burned Betting Super Bowl Props

If you haven’t checked the FanDuel Sportsbook recently, take a look to see its glory. Yes, hundreds of our favorite Super Bowl props are now available to bet, making it the perfect time to game plan our top picks for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

But before we make our picks, we need to make sure we don’t fall into “sucker” bets. Super Bowl sucker bets usually come from game props. Game props can range anywhere from the coin flip, to Super Bowl MVP, to what color Gatorade will douse the winning head coach at the end of the game.

These are incredibly fun but can also be incredibly dangerous. To make sure you don’t get yourself into too much trouble, let’s go over the dos and don’ts of Super Bowl prop betting.

All props and odds sourced in this article come the way of our good friends at the FanDuel Sportsbook. Right now, they have an incredible promotion for Super Bowl LV, valid for new users. Bet $5 on either the Bucs or Chiefs to win outright, and profit $275 if they succeed. It represents an unbelievable 55-to-1 odds boost. You can lock it in by clicking this link.

Let’s get started with two general rules, shall we?

Rule #1: Only bet two-way props.

One of the most significant rules to follow when betting props is to stay away from three-way betting. I firmly believe in only placing two-way bets.

Examples of two-way bets are props that are yes/no or over/under. Three-way betting typically offers win/loss/tie options. Three-way bets are most commonly used in soccer, but you’ll see them on Super Bowl props, too. While three-way bets almost always bring enticing odds, if it looks too good to be true, it’s because it is.

Sportsbooks offer these props because it puts them at a more significant advantage. All sides equal — a 50-50 proposition quickly turns to just a 33.33% chance to win, giving the sportsbook a 66.66% advantage. Bets offered at these odds are very obviously unsustainable long-term, so be sure not to get suckered in.

Rule #2: Consider the variables.

This tip carries a similar rationale to the one above. The bottom line is many of these props require too many variables to make a bet worthwhile. If compounding factors are needed to win your bet, you’re on the wrong side from the moment you place it.

Our goal is to beat the sportsbook. I understand the reasoning behind tossing a few bucks at longshots, but they rarely pan out with Super Bowl prop bets. Following the two-way bet rule is critical. If you were to bet there wouldn’t be a safety in Super Bowl LV, your odds would be -2200. While it isn’t a bet I’d place, I won’t knock anyone who does. The variables needed to accomplish safety are unlikely, plus it follows the two-way betting rule. In a vacuum, it’s sound prop betting.

With those tips in mind, here’s a list of props you certainly want to avoid:

  1. Player to record the first touchdown, first catch, first sack, last catch, etc. – You see it every week. Someone hits these props big and posts their winning ticket all over social media, while others praise them for their genius. I love seeing people win and commend anyone who has enough confidence to use their hard-earned dollar to bet something. But winning these bets require a great deal of luck. They’re a poor investment. The player pool is far too large for these ever to be worth it, exactly why the sportsbook offers it. You can bet Frank Clark records the first sack on Sunday, but he’s going up against over two dozen other players. The odds are against you.
  2. Coin Toss – This is undoubtedly hypocritical because I’m betting on tails, but it’s a lousy investment even if it follows the betting rules established above. There’s no strategy to winning a coin toss as it represents a genuine 50-50 chance. When you consider the sportsbook makes you pay a tax (the vig) to make this bet, it assures that the sportsbook will profit no matter the outcome. You’re much better off picking a side on the game. That said, tails has won 71% of the last seven coin flips. It’s a trend. Here’s to misery!
  3. Super Bowl MVP – I already know what you’re thinking. Quarterbacks almost always win this, so why not just bet the quarterbacks? You could, but you’re going up against a massive pool of players. While quarterbacks have typically dominated this award, Patrick Mahomes would need the variables of playing a good game and his team winning to win this prop. At -105, you’re actually better off betting the coin toss. The only variable you need for the coin toss to win is it landing on your side.
  4. Gatorade Color – Unless you’re friends with the person ordering Gatorade for the team, stay away from this prop bet. Seriously.

If you follow these simple tips, I assure you’ll put yourself in the best position to have Super Bowl prop success on Sunday. Remember, the only people who like sucker bets are the sportsbooks!

If this is your first time betting the Super Bowl and in need of a plan, check out my “How to Prepare for Super Bowl Winnings” piece. It’s a fool-proof way to stay disciplined with your Super Bowl bets to make sure you don’t overextend your reach.

For a look at Super Bowl LV betting trends, take a look at my market analysis here. You’ll see some of the concepts I put in this article explained further in depth.

For game picks against the spread, moneylines, and totals, check out my Super Bowl LV preview.

Lastly, new users, don’t forget to take advantage of FanDuel’s incredible 55-to-1 odds boost for Super Bowl LV. Bet $5, win $275! Lock it in here.

For more betting tips, follow @ErickValenciano on Twitter. Make sure you’re following our sports betting account, too: @OutKickBets.

Written by Erick Valenciano

Erick Valenciano is a So Cal native who moved to Las Vegas to pursue a career in broadcasting and sports betting. A graduate of Cal State Fullerton, Erick paid his way through betting on sports and selling event tickets. He's also a mid-90s golfer and insists nobody will ever break his heart worse than the Chargers have.

2 Comments

Leave a Reply

Leave a Reply

Login to comment on this post. Not a VIP? Signup Here