How Not to Get Burned Betting Super Bowl Props
If you haven’t checked the FanDuel Sportsbook recently, take a look to see its glory. Yes, hundreds of our favorite Super Bowl props are now available to bet, making it the perfect time to game plan our top picks for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
But before we make our picks, we need to make sure we don't fall into "sucker" bets. Super Bowl sucker bets usually come from game props. Game props can range anywhere from the coin flip, to Super Bowl MVP, to what color Gatorade will douse the winning head coach at the end of the game.
These are incredibly fun but can also be incredibly dangerous. To make sure you don’t get yourself into too much trouble, let’s go over the dos and don’ts of Super Bowl prop betting.
Let’s get started with two general rules, shall we?
Rule #1: Only bet two-way props.
One of the most significant rules to follow when betting props is to stay away from three-way betting. I firmly believe in only placing two-way bets.
Examples of two-way bets are props that are yes/no or over/under. Three-way betting typically offers win/loss/tie options. Three-way bets are most commonly used in soccer, but you’ll see them on Super Bowl props, too. While three-way bets almost always bring enticing odds, if it looks too good to be true, it’s because it is.
Sportsbooks offer these props because it puts them at a more significant advantage. All sides equal -- a 50-50 proposition quickly turns to just a 33.33% chance to win, giving the sportsbook a 66.66% advantage. Bets offered at these odds are very obviously unsustainable long-term, so be sure not to get suckered in.
Rule #2: Consider the variables.
This tip carries a similar rationale to the one above. The bottom line is many of these props require too many variables to make a bet worthwhile. If compounding factors are needed to win your bet, you’re on the wrong side from the moment you place it.
Our goal is to beat the sportsbook. I understand the reasoning behind tossing a few bucks at longshots, but they rarely pan out with Super Bowl prop bets. Following the two-way bet rule is critical. If you were to bet there wouldn’t be a safety in Super Bowl LV, your odds would be -2200. While it isn’t a bet I’d place, I won’t knock anyone who does. The variables needed to accomplish safety are unlikely, plus it follows the two-way betting rule. In a vacuum, it’s sound prop betting.
With those tips in mind, here’s a list of props you certainly want to avoid:
If you follow these simple tips, I assure you'll put yourself in the best position to have Super Bowl prop success on Sunday. Remember, the only people who like sucker bets are the sportsbooks!
If this is your first time betting the Super Bowl and in need of a plan, check out my "How to Prepare for Super Bowl Winnings" piece. It’s a fool-proof way to stay disciplined with your Super Bowl bets to make sure you don’t overextend your reach.
For a look at Super Bowl LV betting trends, take a look at my market analysis here. You’ll see some of the concepts I put in this article explained further in depth.
For game picks against the spread, moneylines, and totals, check out my Super Bowl LV preview.
For more betting tips, follow @ErickValenciano on Twitter. Make sure you’re following our sports betting account, too: @OutKickBets.