Hold Your Breath And Take The Points With Broncos

Chiefs vs. Broncos, 4:05 ET

This isn’t the ideal spot to be the Broncos. You are sitting at 3-9 with a lot of questions and very few answers on the horizon. The Chiefs are coming in off of a loss and very rarely will lose two games in a row. That’s what awaits them if they don’t take care of business against the Broncos, but I’m not sure that Denver can win the game, but they should have a chance to keep it close.

The Chiefs lost their last game at Cincinnati which wasn’t too much of a surprise. Prior to that, they were able to dominate the Rams with ease. Prior to that, they had a tough game against the Chargers and they were able to get a last-minute victory. Their defense has been better this year, but there is still work to be done. Russell Wilson is playing terribly this year so he might not be able to take advantage of the opportunity to throw on a less-than-stellar Chiefs secondary. The Broncos don’t really have a reliable running game either, and the Chiefs are pretty good about stopping that aspect anyway so it will be up to Wilson to try and beat them. Mahomes will face a tougher defense, but once he figures them out, it will be game over. If they get enough pressure to disrupt him, the Broncos can keep it close.

The Broncos are coming into this game with just three wins on the season, but two of them have come on their home turf. After being on the road for three of their past four games, I am sure they are happy to see their home stadium, even if a very tough opponent awaits them. I mentioned that they have two wins at home so far on the year. They also have three losses, but all of the losses at home have come within one score. Now, those losses were to the Raiders, Jets, and Colts – none of which are the caliber of the Chiefs, but at least it shows they are staying close in the games. I expect them to at least put up a fight in this one. I expect the Broncos to be a bit one-dimensional in this one with their passing game needing to take the lead, but they shouldn’t just abandon the run either.

I’m actually going to take the Broncos at home +9.5. Do I love the play? Not really. I am putting just a unit on it and think that the Chiefs could blow the Broncos out if they want. However, interdivisional home dogs have treated me well for many years and this is one of those games where if Denver controls the pace – not even the scoring or anything, just the pace – and the pressure on Mahomes, they can at least keep it close.

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Written by David Troy

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