Half of GOP Voters Want Someone Other than Trump in 2024
Nearly half of GOP primary voters prefer someone other than Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee in 2024, a New York Times/Siena College poll shows.
The poll found Trump leading in a hypothetical matchup against five other potential Republican presidential rivals, but with a loosening grip.
Asked who they'd vote for if the Republican 2024 presidential primary were held today, the respondents said:
The good news for Trump is that he's still the favorite and has the reach to play defense against any Republican who dares to challenge him.
A New York Times report argued that "limits on power, however, are not the same things as limits on his support. The rule in the Trump era is that you can oppose Trump indirectly or win without his endorsement — but save for a few unusual cases, you can't challenge him personally and expect to have Republican voters on your side."
The bad news is that he appears more vulnerable than polls suggested a year ago. Though still two years out, Gov. DeSantis appears to be a growing threat to Trump's bid.
DeSantis is polling better than Trump among younger Republicans and those with a college degree. Specifically, 32 percent of respondents with a bachelor's degree or higher favored DeSantis, compared to 28 percent for Trump.
The betting market has also shifted in DeSantis' favor. This week, DeSantis came in as the 7/2 favorite to win the presidential election in 2024. Trump ranked second at 4/1.
Because of DeSantis' momentum, Trump's current share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton's among Democrats at the outset of 2016, before she ultimately received unexpected competition from Senator Bernie Sanders.
A point to consider: while about one-fourth of Republicans said they didn't know enough to have an opinion about DeSantis, he is overwhelmingly liked by those who do.
For the record, reports remain conflicting on whether DeSantis would run against Trump or wait until 2028 -- assuming Trump ultimately announces a White House campaign.
On the Democratic side, the same New York Times/Siena College poll found that 64 percent of Democrats do not want President Joe Biden to run for re-election in 2024.
On Monday, we listed alternative options for Democrats for 2024, a list hardly promising. You can read that here. Keep an eye on California Gov. Gavin Newsom, unfortunately.
Ultimately, Trump is still polling the best among GOP voters. But his hold is loosening as DeSantis continues to loom.