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Thanks to the juice, Monday was another losing day for me in the MLB after splitting my two bets. I’m one game above .500 through the first seven weeks of the MLB season but down slightly because of the vig.
However, since I’m one part confident and one part bored, I’m going to push forward and keep firing on MLB regular-season games. My two favorite looks on MLB’s Tuesday card are a couple of division matchups in the AL Central and East.
MLB Tuesday Action
- Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chicago White Sox (19-30) at Cleveland Guardians (21-26)
- First pitch: 6:10 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Progressive Field in Cleveland.
- Season Series: Tied 2-2.
Cleveland evened the season series with Chicago on Monday by winning the three-game series opener 3-0. The White Sox give ace RHP Dylan Cease (2-3, 4.78 ERA) the start Tuesday and the Guardians send out rookie LHP Logan Allen (1-1, 3.04 ERA).
Cease was among the preseason favorites to win the 2023 AL Cy Young and had some of the nastiest stuff in MLB last year. Whereas Allen is making his second career start and his first was last week vs. the White Sox.
Allen earned a no-decision in Cleveland’s 3-1 road victory over Chicago on Thursday when the White Sox started Cease. Allen gave up just 1 ER over 5 2/3 IP with a 5/1 K/BB rate. Cease allowed 3 ER in 6 1/3 IP with a 3/1 K/BB rate.
Also, White Sox-Guardians is a Pros vs. Joe’s game in the market. Per Pregame.com, more than 60% of the cash in the consensus betting market is Cleveland’s moneyline (ML). While nearly 70% of the bets are on Chicago’s ML.
Oddsmakers are reacting to money pouring in on the Guardians. Cleveland went from -110 on the opener up to the current odds of -130. Typically, the money column is considered the sharper side of the betting splits.
The reason for the split in the market is the public not catching up on the fact that Cease has fallen thus far in 2023. Per Statcast, Cease’s K%, BB%, fastball velocity, spin rates, and expected slash line are down from last year.
Opposing batters are lighting Cease up. Cease’s exit velocity grades in the 19th percentile, his hard-hit rate is in the 8th percentile and his barrel rate is in the 49th percentile.
Finally, Chicago’s bullpen is 28th in FIP (“fielding independent pitching”), 23rd in K-BB%, 29th in HR/9 rate, and 26th in WAR at -0.1, according to FanGraphs.
MLB ‘Lock’ #1: Guardians (-130) ML at DraftKings
Toronto Blue Jays (25-23) at Tampa Bay Rays (35-14)
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay.
- Season Series: Tied 2-2.
I have to be honest; I’m nervous about this reverse line movement on the full game’s odds. Most of the action at DraftKings is on Tampa’s ML at the time of writing, per VSIN. But, the line is moving toward Toronto.
When you dig a little deeper, you’ll see that Tampa’s bullpen is surprisingly a bottom-10 unit in MLB and Toronto’s is around league average. To avoid the relief pitching matchup, I’ll BET the RAYS on the 1ST 5-INNING ML (-130).
The surest things in this world are death, taxes, and Blue Jays RHP Jose Berrios (3-4, 4.61 ERA) sucking on the road. He has a 6.67 road ERA (2.22 home ERA), 1.45 road WHIP (1.03 home WHIP), and 3.7 K/BB road rate (5.2 K/BB home rate).
Furthermore, Berrios is awful in Tampa. Berrios is 0-3 at Tropicana Field with an 8.68 ERA (18 ER in 18 2/3 career IP), 1.55 WHIP, and 5 HRs allowed in four career starts.
Also, Rays starting RHP Taj Bradley (3-0, 3.54 ERA) is Tampa’s top-ranked prospect, according to Statcast. That says a lot considering the Rays’ organization is a pitching factory and has a top-10 farm system in MLB.
Lastly, Tampa’s lineup is the most productive in MLB vs. right-handed pitching. The Rays out-rank the Blue Jays in wRC+ (133-106), wOBA (.357-.324), ISO (.233-.155), and hard-hit rate (35.2-33.4%) against righties, per FanGraphs.
MLB ‘Lock’ #2: Rays (-130) 1st-5 Inning ML at DraftKings
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5 CommentsLeave a Reply
Geoff, I hope you aren’t betting much money…
If you need another bookie, let me know.
I do bet a lot of money. But, I’ll holler at you if I need more outs. Thanks
There’s a baseball team named the “Guardians?”
I guess my boycott of MLB since the ’96 strike has really hand-cuffed me in the baseball world…
If you call a team a “lock” and they lose 20-1, it’s time for a hiatus.
I stopped paying attention after the 1st 5 innings. A loss is a loss.