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Game 4 of the Denver Nuggets (3-0) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (0-3) in the 2023 Western Conference finals is a scenario of “wrong team being favored”. LAL is the Game 4 favorite because no one thinks a LeBron James-led team will get swept.
But, the Lakers are clearly getting out-classed by the Nuggets and suffered three straight gut-punching losses. Denver is out-performing LAL in three of the “four factors” in this series such as shooting, rebounding and ball security.
Denver’s stars are going berserk. Nuggets PG Jamal Murray is scoring a series-best 35.0 points per game on 66.0% true shooting (.521/.455/.933). Denver 2-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic is averaging a 27-14-11 triple-double.
Aside from LeBron being “over the hill” (which we’ll discuss later), the Lakers aren’t getting enough from their supporting class. Lakers SG Austin Reaves is the only playable guard on LAL’s roster.
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers Game 4
- Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Frankly, I think the Lakers roll over. LeBron knows this series is over and I think his old a** would rather start his summer and prolong the inevitable. The only way LAL could stave off elimination is Herculean efforts from LeBron and Anthony Davis.
No one on the Lakers can defend Murray. Lakers PG D’Angelo Russell is a basketball-cancer. LAL G Lonnie Walker IV shouldn’t be playing in a conference final. Lakers G Dennis Schroder has a -49 net rating (nRTG) in this series.
LAL blew its chance to get back into this series Saturday. Jokic exited Game 3 early in the 2nd half with foul trouble and Denver was ahead 4 points. When Jokic came back into the game, the Lakers were down just 2 points.
Jokic played a rare bad Game 3. The floaters he usually makes were rimming out Saturday. Jokic had just 9 points entering the 4th quarter before turning it on. That was a game the Lakers needed to win.
Also, we’ll see the same Jokic effort in Nuggets-Lakers Game 4 as we saw in Denver’s closeout win vs. the Suns last round. Jokic put up a 32-10-12 triple-double in Game 6 of the Nuggets-Suns series in Phoenix.
Finally, LeBron is too far out of his prime to give the Lakers what they need to make the NBA Finals. Per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), LeBron has the worst non-garbage time on/off nRTG in the Western Conference finals.
BET: Nuggets +3 (-110) in Game 4 and Denver’s -4 (+195) and -8 (+360) alternate spreads
PS Nuggets-Lakers Game 4 Player Props
- Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Lakers PG D’Angelo Russell Point Prop: 10.5
- Over 10.5 points: (-120)
- UNDER 10.5 POINTS: (-110)
Point blank, Russell shouldn’t be out there. He cannot defend anyone on the Nuggets and is shooting terribly. Russell is averaging just 7.0 PPG in this series on 29.6% from the field (14.3% from behind the arc).
Pinnacle Sportsbook lists the UNDER for Russell’s point prop at -120 as appose to DraftKings’ -110 price tag for the Under. Pinnacle is the sharpest shop in town, known for booking the largest sports bets.
The best thing you can say about Russell’s Western Conference finals performance is “This isn’t the series for him.” Russell has gone Under 10.5 points in the 1st three games of this series and he has a -48 nRTG.
BET: Lakers PG D’Angelo Russell UNDER 10.5 points (-110) at DraftKings
- Betting Strategy: I’d put only a quarter-unit (u) on this and the following player prop. For example, 1u = $100.
Nuggets SF Michael Porter Jr. made 3-points prop: 2.5
- OVER 2.5 made 3-pointers: (-125)
- Under 2.5 made 3-pointers: (-105)
Porter is playing his 3-And-D role perfectly in the Western Conference finals. He is shooting 47.8% from deep (11-of-23) and Porter’s floor spacing makes it harder for the Lakers to double-team Jokic in the paint.
He has sunk at least three 3-pointers in the 1st three games of this series and seven of Denver’s 14 games this postseason. LeBron is defending Porter and I don’t expect LeBron to be closing out tightly on Porter’s 3s in Game 4.
BET: Denver wing Michael Porter Jr. OVER 2.5 made 3-pointers in Game 4 (-125)
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5 CommentsLeave a Reply
Means, bet the Lakers given his track record recently.
You are rough. All you can ask for is good analysis of the match up to support the bet recommendations – which Geoff does an excellent job of.
Thanks dude I appreciate that!! William will come around eventually.
Great call on this one! Go Nuggets!
Thanks dude! I was right and wrong at the same time. Hit the full-game and both props. Lost the alternates and was off about Lakers “no showing”. But, hey, a win is a win.