Geoff Clark
Videos by OutKick
The 3-seed Sacramento Kings are pretty much the Rodney Dangerfield of the Western Conference and are NOT expected to beat the 6-seed Golden State Warriors in their 1st-round NBA playoff series.
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That is due to the Sacramento’s inexperience and Golden State’s championship meddle. This kind of makes sense but the Warriors are -275 favorites over the Kings (+225). That’s a little extreme, in my opinion.
Especially for a Golden State team that’s been missing a key player from its 2021-22 NBA title run. Warriors SF Andrew Wiggins has been sidelined since Feb. 13th for “personal reasons” and we don’t really know the story behind that.
Another reason for Golden State being such a big favorite over Sacramento is the fact that the Warriors were 3-1 straight up (SU) vs. the Kings during the regular season.
Warriors vs. Kings Game 1 Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 15th.
- Venue: Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California.
Sactown covered in its three losses to Golden State this season and Wiggins was active for all of those games. Granted, the Kings covered as +10, +8, and +4 underdogs and their Game 1 price is a coin-flip.
But, Wiggins is coming off the bench Saturday and still has to knock off rust. The Warriors’ defense has been awful on the road all season and Wiggins is their 2nd-best defender behind Draymond Green.
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Per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Golden State’s adjusted defensive rating goes from 3rd at home (108.6 points per 100 possessions) to 28th on the road (119.8 points per 100 possessions).
Furthermore …
There are five more pro-Kings angles for Game 1 and the series
Sactown has two strength-on-weakness edges in ball-security and getting to the foul line. The Dubs have the worst free-throw-attempt per game differential in the NBA at -5.0 and allow the 2nd-most points off of turnovers per game.
Kings’ 2023 NBA Coach of the Year, Mike Brown, worked as a defensive assistant in Golden State from 2016-22. Brown knows how clumsy the Warriors can be on offense and the Kings could steal a few possessions.
Both teams like to get out in the fastbreak. However, the Kings are 9th in transition points added per 100 possessions (according to CTG) and the Warriors are 25th. Sactown allows the fewest fastbreak points per game.
Also, the NBA is all about the 3-pointer nowadays and, as crazy as this sounds, Sacramento is better from behind the arc. The Kings have a higher wide-open 3-point-attempt rate on both ends of the floor.
Finally, this is a Pros vs. Joes game at DraftKings. Slightly more cash is on the Kings +1 but nearly 67% of the bets placed are on the Warriors. That’s why the line has stayed where it opened despite one-way betting traffic toward Golden State.
BET: Sacramento +1 (-115) at DraftKings, up to -2
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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