A lot of people like to dunk on Jerry Jones, Mike McCarthy, and America’s (Skip Bayless’s) Team. But, the Dallas Cowboys (5-2) are nearly double-digit home favorites hosting the Chicago Bears (3-4) in Week 8, and rightfully so.
Chicago upset the New England Patriots 33-14 in Foxborough as 9.5-point ‘dogs on Monday Night Football in Week 7. The Bears are 3-3-1 against the spread (ATS).
The Cowboys recovered from a slow start to crush the Detroit Lions 24-6 at home this past weekend, covering as 7-point favorites. Dallas is 5-2 ATS.
There are a lot of reasons to like Dallas here. But, the bottom line is if the Patriots are 9.5-point home favorites vs. Chicago then the Cowboys should be at least 12-point favorites against the Bears in Dallas.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: Bears (+330), Cowboys (-410)
- ATS: Bears +9.5 (-110), COWBOYS -9.5 (-110)
- Total (O/U) — 42.5 — O: -110, U: -110
Beware of a Bears ‘let-down’ game
This is your quintessential fade spot. Chicago is coming off a big primetime road win and getting nearly double digits vs. a Dallas team that struggled to score 24 points against Detroit.
But, since the beginning of last season, the Bears are 2-6 ATS following a win and the Cowboys low-key have been making believers money over the past two years.
Dallas just covers
The Cowboys are 18-7 ATS with a +5.8 ATS margin since 2021. Dallas is a momentum team aka 11-5 ATS with a +4.2 ATS margin following a win.
Oh, there’s more: The Cowboys are 11-1 ATS vs. teams with a losing record and Dallas is 3-1-0 ATS when favored 7.5 or more points with a +10.9 ATS margin.
Also, most NFL fans that bet on these games understand Dak didn’t look in his 1st game back from injury. The sportsbooks are making Dallas 9.5-point favorites to scare the public away, and for 6-point “teaser” protection.
‘Pros (Cowboys) vs. Joes (Bears) game’
This checks out. The public is betting Chicago off a Monday Night Football victory and the sharps are betting Dallas dump-trucks the Bears.
Cowboys with peak motivation
Dallas is in a fierce division race with the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles. You could argue this is a look-ahead game for the Cowboys since the next opponent is the Green Bay Packers. But, Dallas has a bye next week and Green Bay sucks.
Furthermore, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott needs quiet the QB Cooper Rush noise and RB Tony Pollard can earn a bigger role in Dallas’s offense if he steps up Ezekiel Elliot‘s injury-related absence this week.
This could be a “stats” game for Dallas’s defense. Cowboys pass rushers Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence and CB Trevon Diggs will be licking their chops to face Bears QB Justin Fields.
Dallas’s strength-on-weakness edge in pass protection
The Bears allow the most pressure in the NFL and the Cowboys defense has the highest pressure rate. Also, Dallas is familiar with mobile, dual-threat quarterbacks.
The Cowboys faced Philly’s Jalen Hurts and NY’s Dan Jones. Dallas held Hurts in check (27 yards) but Jones had success on the ground (79 yards). At least the Cowboys won’t be unprepared for Justin Fields’ elusiveness.
BET: Cowboys -9.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -10.5
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