Fade Or Follow The Public: Wednesday’s MLB Games


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We’ve been doing fade or follow for almost a month now, and we’ve had great runs, followed by horrific stretches. So far, in NBA, MLB, and college basketball, we have a 23-21 record, and in baseball, we’re 8-7. A perfect 2-0 night, and I’ll be up to near 60% winners. Hopefully, that night is tonight. 

Tigers(+190) vs Astros(-230) 7:11 p.m. ET

Tonight, the Asterisk Astros take on the Tigers and hope to bounce back from their 2-8 blowout loss. Even though I try to root with my wallet, it’s hard to root for Houston, and a -230 Moneyline isn’t good value. So, instead of betting a side, I’m going to look at the total that is set at 9 runs. If last night’s game is any indication, then the over should be the play, but the public is torn, as 50% of the bets are on both the over and under. Betting Detroit unders has been very profitable (7-4 for the season), compared to Houston (4-7). The Tigers are an all-or-nothing style of offense. They are T2nd in home runs but are T22nd in runs and 23rd in batting average. Houston has a great offense – they are T4th in runs, 3rd in home runs, and 4th in batting average. Will Detroit’s offense exceed their stats like last night, or will they regress to their mean?

Houston is a middle-of-the-pack pitching team; they are 15th in ERA, 14th in earned runs, and 18th in hits allowed. The Tigers, by comparison, have a terrible pitching staff – 27th in ERA, 28th in earned runs, and T21st in hits allowed. Michael Fulmer is taking the mound for Detroit tonight. Fulmer has a career 4.07 ERA, 8.9 WAR, and 1.229 WHIP. Lance McCuller Jr is starting for Houston tonight; he has a career 3.66 ERA, 7.3 WAR, and 1.257 WHIP. I don’t see back-to-back high-scoring games. 

The pick: Under 9 runs

Phillies(-122) vs. Mets(+104) 7:11 p.m. ET

The Mets are looking to win three games in a row since they won the doubleheader against Philly yesterday. The public thinks that the Phillies will bounce back, as 68% of the bets are on Philadelphia. Zack Wheeler is taking the mound tonight for Philly, and David Peterson is starting for the Mets. Wheeler has a career 3.68 ERA, 14.3 WAR, and 1.280 WHIP. Peterson is only in his second year but posted an impressive spring training with a 3.75 ERA and 1.083 WHIP. His spring training was very different than his opening day, where he allowed 6 runs in only 4 innings pitched. The Mets will need his pitching to be much better if they want a chance to win. The hyped Mets offense has fallen short so far this season; they are 11th in batting average, 30th in runs, and 30th in hits. This may be because the Mets have played in only 8 games while the rest of the league has played 11. Comparatively, the Phillies are 9th in batting average, 26th in runs, and T15th in hits.

The Mets pitching has carried them to a 4-3 record, which is nothing new as deGrom has always been great and has had his offense fail him. New York so far this season is 7th in ERA, 1st in home runs allowed, and T16th in batting average allowed. The Phillies are 13th in ERA, T12th in home runs allowed, and T16th in batting average allowed. I can see the Mets starting a run here and the hype they started the season with actually come to fruition. I’m either going to look like a genius or an idiot for heavily fading the public. 

The pick: Mets +104

Written by OutKick Bets

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