Fade Or Follow The Public: Friday’s MLB Games

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We didn’t have the 2-0 night I was hoping for on Wednesday, but we did hit a nice +104 Mets Moneyline. The Fade Or Follow record is 24-22 and 9-8 in baseball. Once again hoping for a 2-0 night to get closer to a 60% win rate.  

White Sox (+106) vs. Red Sox (-124) 7:11 p.m. ET

It’s the battle of the Sox tonight as Chicago is traveling to Boston. This was supposed to be Chicago’s year. They were one of the favorites to win the American League, but they’ve started slowly with a 6-7 record. Meanwhile, everybody had written Boston off. They were supposed to be a rebuilding team and after their 0-3 start, it looked like the critics were right. Then everything turned around for Boston, who have since gone on a nine-game win streak, which was broken by the Twins last night in a 3-4 loss.

The public thinks that Boston will start another streak tonight, as 53% of the picks are on Boston’s moneyline. Dylan Cease is taking the mound tonight for Chicago. So far in 2021, he is 0-0 in 2 games started, with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.607 WHIP. Boston will start Nick Pivetta, who is 2-0 in 2 games started this year, with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.455 WHIP. Boston has the clear pitching advantage tonight, but that’s not the only advantage they have. Boston’s offense has been red hot this season; they are 1st in runs, 2nd in hits, T9th in home runs, and 2nd in batting average. Chicago’s offense, one the other hand, looks great on paper but have yet to live up to the hype. They are 5th in runs, 11th in hits, T19th in home runs, and 15th in batting average. With the combination of Boston’s better pitching and better offense, I’m following the public with my pick.  

The pick: Boston -124

Mets (-295) vs. Rockies (+240) 8:41 p.m. ET

It looks like the Mets are figuring things out since winning their last four games. The Rockies, on the other hand, are one of the worst teams in the entire league. The public agrees that the Mets are the far superior team since 81% of picks are on the Mets’ Moneyline. I won’t be picking a side since the Mets’ Moneyline isn’t great value. Instead, I’ll be looking at the total, which is set at 9.5 runs. The public believes that there will be great pitching, as 87% of picks are on the under. I can’t blame the public since Jacob deGrom is taking the mound tonight for New York.

deGrom is once again regarded as the best pitcher, and if his team can help him get runs, he’ll be a favorite for the NL CY Young award. So far, in 2021, deGrom is 0-1 in 2 starts, 0.64 ERA, and 0.714 WHIP. Chi Chi Gonzalez is starting for the Rockies tonight, and while he’s no deGrom, he’s also no bum. So far in 2021, Gonzales is 1-0 in 3 games, with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP. The public hopes that the Mets’ offensive struggles stay since New York is 30th in runs, 29th in hits, 30th in home runs, and 8th in batting averages. These stats don’t tell the entire story since the Mets have played only eight games this season, and the rest of the league has played at least eleven. Colorado doesn’t have the excuse of fewer games played. Their offense is just bad. The Rockies are T16th in runs, 13th in hits, T11th in home runs, and 22nd in batting average. With the combination of deGrom taking the mound and the Mets averaging only 3.6 runs a game, I’m following the public.       

The pick:  Under 9.5 runs

Written by OutKick Bets

One Comment

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  1. A betting tip. If you bet on MLB player prop bets then do a little shopping.
    Mike Trout props for tonight.
    hit a home run +250
    4+ total bases +225

    If he hits an HR then either will win but getting to 4 total bases with 4 ABs is much more likely and the odds are close enough to make the bet.

    Also took over in TB NY 9.5 & over in Stl vs Phi 8

    GL everyone

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