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The New York Mets (36-45) are falling apart as they host the surging San Francisco Giants (45-36) Friday for the start of a 3-game series. First pitch at Citi Field in Queens is 7:05 p.m. ET.
San Francisco is 2.5 games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West. The Giants have won six of their last 10 games and 14 of the last 20.
The Mets are 17.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL West and Mets owner Steve Cohen is hosting weird press conferences. NYM is 3-7 over their last 10 games and 6-14 in the last 20.
Mets RHP Carlos Carrasco (2-3, 6.19 ERA) gets the start Friday. Carrasco is one of the worst starters in MLB. FanGraphs ranks Carrasco the 240th-best pitcher in baseball. Statcast grades Carrasco in the bottom 16th percentile for expected slash line, exit velocity, and K%.
Giants RHP Alex Cobb (5-2, 3.09 ERA) returns to the rotation after being sidelined since June 15 with an oblique strain. Cobb’s splitter is one of the most effective pitches in baseball. He has the 3rd-highest groundball rate among MLB starters with a minimum of 50 innings pitched, per FanGraphs.
Giants vs. Mets Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
There is sharp line movement headed toward San Francisco in the betting market. The Giants opened up as -120 moneyline (ML) favorites. Now they are up to -130 and there’s more cash than bets on San Francisco’s ML in the market, according to Pregame.com.
Action is coming in on the Giants for two reasons. The first reason is the most obvious: NYM is slumping. Also, San Francisco has a three-phase edge over the Mets in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
We’ve already discussed Cobb’s edge over Carrasco in this matchup. But, the Giants have much better relief pitching as well. San Francisco’s bullpen is top-10 for HR/9 rate, FIP, and WAR, per FanGraphs. Whereas NYM’s bullpen is bottom-three in all of those metrics.
Furthermore, the Giants are more productive against righties. San Francisco’s lineup out-ranks the Mets in wRC+ (107-102), wOBA (.328-.315), ISO (.172-.157), and hard-hit rate (34.3-32.4%), according to FanGaphs.
I said Wednesday that I’d bail on betting MLB if my bets lost. Both of them lost so you can call me a liar. But, instead of trying to win several bets, I’m scaling back to one MLB bet a day. At most. Wish me luck. I need it.
BET: San Francisco Giants (-130) ML at DraftKings, up to -135
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.