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Look, I’ve been dead wrong about the Los Angeles Dodgers (16-13) several times already this season. It feels like every time I’ve faded the Dodgers, they’ve shoved it in my face and choked whenever I bet on them.
However, the Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies (15-14) in their 3-game series opener at Dodger Stadium Monday and I’m cooler on the Phillies than the Dodgers.
Philadelphia sends out mediocre righty starter Taijuan Walker (2-1, 4.97 ERA). LAD counters with RHP Tony “GOOSE” Gonsolin (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who’s making his 2nd start of the year.
Walker got a no-decision in a 6-5 win vs. the Seattle Mariners in his last outing. All five runs scored by the Mariners were charged to Walker. His only two wins in 2023 have been against teams last in their divisions currently.
Gonsolin pitched 3 1/3-scoreless IP in LAD’s 8-1 loss at the Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday in his 2023 debut. In 2022, Gonsolin had the highest winning percentage in MLB at 94.1%. He is 26-6 in his first five seasons as a Dodger.
Phillies at Dodgers Odds
- Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Since 2021, the Dodgers are 8-1 straight up (SU) and 7-2 on the run line (RL) as home favorites with Gonsolin on the hill. LAD has a +68.1% return on investment on the RL in those games.
Over that span, Walker’s teams are 2-10 SU and 4-8 RL as road underdogs vs. teams with a winning record. This includes nine consecutive losses.
LAD’s lineup is more productive vs. right-handed pitching. The Dodgers are 14-7 SU against righty starters and the Phillies are 12-9 SU.
The Dodgers out-rank the Phillies in wRC+ (117-109), wOBA (.345-.339), ISO (.222-.191), BB/K rate (0.49-0.30), and hard-hit rate (34.7-28.8%), per FanGraphs.
Also, Walker’s 4-seamer has a 71.4% hard-hit rate, according to Statcast. LAD’s lineup has four hitters with a plus-50% hard-hit rate vs. 4-seam fastballs.
There’s been sharp line movement headed toward LA in the RL betting market. Per Pregame.com, LAD’s RL opened at +125 and is down to the current number (+115).
I’m more willing to follow line movement in MLB compared to other sports. Unlike the NFL, the public doesn’t move betting lines in regular-season baseball.
BET: Dodgers -1.5 (+115) on the run line, down to +110
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