Dodgers Have Built A Superteam, But Does It Matter In October?
The Los Angeles Dodgers are unquestionably the winners of the 2023 Major League Baseball offseason. And it’s not even close to over.
It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that the Dodgers were more aggressive this year than in years past. Despite putting together a dominant, 111-win team in 2022, Los Angeles came out flat after the first round playoff bye and lost three out of four to the San Diego Padres. Then in 2023, things got worse.
Despite a massive free agency class headlined by Carlos Correa, Aaron Judge, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner, the Dodgers basically stood pat. Instead of inking significant deals, they focused on short term, marginal depth additions with David Peralta, Jason Hayward, J.D. Martinez and Miguel Rojas. Oh, and a disastrous Noah Syndergaard signing.
Even at the time, outsiders and reporters speculated that the franchise was saving money to pursue Shohei Ohtani in the 2023 free agency class. Turns out they were right.
The Dodgers signed Ohtani to a record setting, 10-year, $700 million deal. For a team that, despite its reputation, had only signed one major free agent, Freddie Freeman, in the past six to seven seasons, it was a shocking statement of intent. And they were just getting started.
LOS ANGELES - Shohei Ohtani poses for a photo with Manager Dave Roberts after being introduced by the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on December 14. (Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)
Dodgers Going All In
Literally as Ohtani was being introduced as a Dodger, the front office was completing a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for star pitcher Tyler Glasnow. Due in part to money freed up by Ohtani’s unusual deferrals.
READ: DODGERS PUTTING OHTANI MONEY TO GOOD USE ALREADY WITH MAJOR TRADE
Glasnow has, by most accounts, some of the best “stuff” of any starter in the sport and immediately solidified a shaky rotation. As part of the trade, he also agreed to an extension for $136 million, another significant financial outlay.
Despite adding $836 million in obligations, reporters suggested that the Dodgers were still interested in the second biggest free agent and top starter available, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yamamoto, widely expected to pull in a contract north of $250 million, had multiple teams interested and reportedly received two identical bids from the Mets and Dodgers.
He chose the Dodgers.
Whether due to the team’s ability to build a consistent winner, the opportunity to team back up with Shohei Ohtani, closer proximity to Japan or a desire to play in Los Angeles, the Dodgers got Yamamoto not because they spent the most, but because he wanted to play there.
In just a few weeks, LA went from a dominant lineup with a shaky rotation to arguably having the best of both. But how much will it help them when it matters?
October Baseball Just Isn’t Predictable
If there’s anything the past two baseball postseasons have shown, it’s that nothing actually matters in October. There is no magic cure, no one-stop solution, no amount of regular season dominance that matters.
The 84-win Arizona Diamondbacks went to the World Series. Not because they were more talented than the Dodgers or the Philadelphia Phillies, but because they played well at the right time, benefitted from some small sample size over performance, and saw their bullpen hold up against top quality hitters.
On the one hand, the Diamondbacks seem to be the counterpoint to LA; you don’t need to spend this much money and build a super team to win. On the other hand, the Rangers won the World Series on the back of Corey Seager launching a series-changing home run in the ninth inning of Game 1. Seager cost the Rangers $325 million. And was worth every penny.
The key takeaway from the past two postseasons is that there is no strategy that actually matters in October. The Dodgers will now have Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Max Muncy, Bobby Miller Will Smith and potentially, Clayton Kershaw. And they could still get swept in the first round by the Milwaukee Brewers. Because the underdog in baseball still wins 3 out of 5 games roughly 45% of the time.
It doesn’t mean they choked or are only good in the regular season, it means that baseball’s structure, playing 162 games to determine the best team, then having a random small sample size tournament, is nonsensical. Even if it is enjoyable.
Dodgers Odds Still Aren’t Great
So no, the Dodgers' super team doesn’t matter. Ohtani, Yamamoto and Glasnow certainly cement LA as the clear favorites to win the World Series and more than 100 games in the regular season, yet again. But being World Series favorites in December means you have an 11 percent to 12 percent chance to win.
Which also means the field has an 88 percent to 89 percent chance to win. Those are not good odds, no matter how much they’re spending. But that’s how baseball works.
They may not have guaranteed any postseason success with their huge, $1 billion+ offseason spending spree. But they did at least guarantee that the regular season will be a lot of fun to watch.