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There are so many player props that it can be overwhelming. How are you supposed to know exactly how many rebounds, points, or 3s a player will make? This is why I’m here, to do all of that research, so you have a better idea of where to put your money. Remember when I was ice cold for that one day? Well, my phone and notebook have been set on fire after my Monday picks, which went 5-2. My Mitchell under 30.5 points was a bad pick, but my other loss of Seth Curry over 3.5 made threes looked amazing in the first half when he had three threes. Then he didn’t get another three the entire game, which hurt. After Monday, my player prop record is at 18-15 with a +186, +400, and +152 sprinkled in there.
Hawks vs. 76ers 7:30 p.m. ET
After the first two games, it looked like Embiid was going to average close to 40 since in Game One, he had 39, and Game Two 40 points. He has significantly cooled down in the last two games, scoring 27 and then a dismal 17 points. In Game Four, he shot 0-12 in the 2nd half while the Hawks came back to win the game. It wasn’t only the 2nd half that Embiid was bad. He shot 4-20 FG, 1-4 3P, and 8-8 FT for the entire game. It looks like Embiid’s meniscus injury is starting to slow him down. He missed Game Five of the Wizards series because of the injury, and then when he came back, it looked like the injury wasn’t bothering him.
It’s not only the public and stats that see Embiid declining, but Atlanta’s center Clint Capela had this to say after Embiid’s terrible Game Four: “Whenever you wear him out, everything becomes tougher for him… When the fatigue comes in, it’s a different ballgame.” Embiid averaged 28.5 points on 51% shooting during the regular season but missed significant time because of injuries that aren’t new. His scoring has cooled down in the playoffs, as he has averaged 27.4 points on 52% shooting. This pick is playing the numbers and seeing that Embiid is not healthy.
I bet Simmons would have under 13.5 points on Monday, and that hit since he scored only 11 points in the game. So why am I doing the opposite after I won money on Monday? Like I wrote before, this has to do with Embiid’s injury. If Embiid isn’t healthy, Simmons will need to step up and carry this team with scoring. In Game Five, when Embiid didn’t play, Simmons finished the game with 19 points. When Embiid was out during the regular season, Simmons averaged 14 points with 22 and 16 point games sprinkled in there. Simmons has scored 17, 4, 18, and 11 points in this series, and during the playoffs, he is averaging 13.8 points. In the regular season, he averaged 14.3 points. This game, Simmons could prove that he is a legitimate superstar with Embiid being injured.
I’m diving back into this well after hitting the bet on Monday when Trae scored 25 points. Doc Rivers finally realized that he has two great defenders, Simmons and Thybulle, and used them to guard Trae. With them guarding Trae on Monday, he struggled and shot just 8-26 from the field and 3-11 from deep. Trae has scored 35, 21, 28, and 25 points in this series, which are near his playoff average, which is 28.3 points. In the regular season, he averaged 25.3 points. The Hawks were able to win with Trae’s scoring struggles because he got his teammates involved with assists, and I see his scoring “struggles” continuing. I had to put quotes because it’s hard to say that a player struggles with scoring 21, 28, and 25 points.
I talked above about how Trae has struggled to score but still led the Hawks to victory with his passing. If the 76ers are going to put their best defenders on Trae, he will need to get his teammates involved. In Game Four, he had 18 assists, and in the rest of the series, he has had 10, 11, and 8 assists. In the regular season, he averaged 9.4 assists, and in the playoffs, he has gotten his teammates more involved, averaging 10.7 assists. For this bet, I’m playing the numbers with Trae’s playoff average and the fact that Trae will need to get his teammates more involved if the 76ers are going to stop his scoring.
Seth stomped on my heart on Monday, but I’m banging the drum again for this bet. With Embiid struggling, the 76ers will need other players to step up and score. If Seth is going to score, he will score from deep as he shot 45% from three. Last game, he finished with three made threes, all in the first half. In this series, Seth has gone 5-9, 5-6, 2-5, and 3-6 from deep. During the regular season, he averaged 2.2 on 4.9 attempts from deep, and in the playoffs he has been averaging 2.8 on 6.1 attempts. +470 with this bet hitting at 50% is great odds.
Clippers vs. Jazz 10:00 p.m. ET
With Kawhi Leonard out, Paul George is now the number one option. I see only two possible scenarios happening tonight: either George will have a great game or a horrendous game. This season, Kawhi missed 20 games. I went through every game where George played but Kawhi was out, and here is what happened in those games: 15, 18, 32, 24, 32, 36, 37, 33, 9, and 25 points without Kawhi. This bet is trying to find value, and if it hits either a +310 or +1000, the bet is great.
I was on the wrong side of this bet on Monday, and I’m hoping to right that wrong. Last game, Mitchell had 37 points and is once again killing it in these playoffs, averaging 32.9 points. In Utah, Mitchell has been amazing, scoring 25, 30, 45, and 37 points. Conley has officially been ruled out, so Mitchell will need to pick up the scoring.
On Monday, this prop was at 13.5 rebounds, and I bet the under, which easily hit. Gobert had only 8 rebounds. During the regular season, Gobert averaged 13.5 rebounds, but during the playoffs, he has averaged 12.8 rebounds per game. Gobert has the height advantage in this series when the Clippers start Batum at center, who is only 6’8″. Gobert should get a lot of rebounds, but that hasn’t been the case lately, as he has pulled down 12, 20, 10, and 8 rebounds. This prop has hit 3 out of 4 games, and I will be betting this again tonight.