Will Travel Ball Eventually Kill High School Baseball?

Yes.

If you listen to the rumblings from social media and parents who have written to OutKick, the writing is on the wall for high school baseball programs across the country: You're about to become the house baseball of the youth baseball industry.

The billion-dollar behemoth that is travel ball -- sports tourism was estimated to be a $91.8 billion industry in 2022 -- shows no sign of slowing down and now that it has killed rec leagues across America, the next frontier appears to be high school sports.

In a rather interesting Twitter exchange, Stan Switala, the head coach at Southington (CT) High School announced that he was hearing rumors of travel ball coaches telling their players to avoid playing high school baseball during the upcoming season.

"This is my 10th year being a head varsity baseball coach and I never heard such at thing!" Switala wrote. "Kids play for your High School and battle for a State Championship and play with players you have grown up with since elementary school!"

Where there's smoke, there's fire.

And when towns like Gluckstadt, Mississippi (pop. 3,200) are talking about building $100 million sports complexes -- they're calling it a MegaDome -- they're going to need bodies to fill these domes to pay the bills.

"With its unique geographic advantage and ability to connect millions of travel sports athletes and their families, all within a six-hour drive time from all the major Southern markets of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Tennessee and Texas, central Mississippi will surely benefit from the trickle-down spending of these sports tourists," Gluckstadt town officials announced Tuesday.

While Gluckstadt won't cause the literal death of high school baseball in the southeast, it's the smoke.

If you're a top-level Mississippi high school baseball talent and Gluckstadt's Mega-Dome offers you an NIL deal to be your exclusive club (NIL at the high school level is not currently allowed in Miss.), what's stopping the athlete from leaving the high school team?

Gluckstadt's Mega-Dome will be in an arms race. It has bills to pay. It needs the top players, which will then bring in more top talent that is willing to pay for training and that will lead to jealous parents who will then fork over money for their kids to get the same training and use the same facilities.

Eventually, there are B teams, C teams and D teams playing spring ball. Parents are then paying thousands more for their kids to play on these spring travel ball teams.

At some point, the local high schools have been gutted like rec ball leagues.

What's stopping this scenario from becoming a reality?

"I have never heard of a travel ball advising a kid to not play for his high school team, but nothing would surprise me," OutKick reader Chris B. in Houston, who provides travel ball industry updates for OutKick, wrote Tuesday.

But, in the next sentence, Chris B. proves my hypothesis on travel teams and Mega-Domes engaging in an arms race that ultimately needs big names to build pressure on parents to provide their kids with the same training and facilities as the best players have at their disposal.

"My son is not an elite level player, but we know some that are, including one senior that is rumored to have received a six-figure NIL deal," he added.

Top baseball talent is already skipping high school baseball around Indianapolis

It turns out my hypothesis is already beginning to be proven true in the Indianapolis suburbs where you can't go a mile without passing some sort of sports complex.

"When my son was in middle school, I had a friend tell me that if his son had to choose between high school and travel, he would pick travel," an OutKick source emailed Tuesday. "I laughed at him. Then my kids got to High School and I couldn't believe the incompetence of some coaches and I fully agreed with my friend.

"I ended up coaching multiple kids who played at some college level but didn't play in high school simply because of the coaches. This happened at multiple high schools around the metro Indy area."

If this is already happening in the suburbs, watch out.

Where there's smoke, there's fire.

"I quit playing after graduating HS in 2002 in Atlanta.  I wouldn't say it was a thing anyone was instructed to do (tell players to not play for the high school), but the competition and level of instruction wasn't even close in high school ball," OutKick reader Rory shared about his travel ball vs. high school ball experience.

"It was like the Jamie Moyer effect going from high school back to travel.  You'd be in a funk for three games until you adjusted back to the velocity.  Also, as someone who played the left side of the infield, travel ball was the only time I played with other infielders I felt confident in."

The money keeps pouring in & the only way to pay the bills is by filling fields and hotels

Meanwhile, in Princeton, West Virginia (pop. 5,800), a $100 million sports and commercial complex is slated to begin construction this year. There will be six baseball fields, six softball fields, retailers, restaurants and hotels.

Omaha is dumping $54 million into a youth sports complex.

And then there's the Field of Dreams site in Iowa where an $80 million expansion will turn the place into a 290-acre facility with nine baseball fields, nine softball fields, a 104-room hotel, an RV park, and a 100,000 sq. ft. fieldhouse for indoor sports.

It's not crazy to envision a day when high school travel ball teams are busing it to Iowa in May when their high schools are playing a worthless conference game against the school that barely fields a team.

"The only good thing that’s stopping summer programs from plucking is that generally summer tournaments don’t begin until June. So high school kids are expected to play HS until then. If that ever were to change then that would be a problem," an Ohio high school coach relayed to OutKick Tuesday.

As the money keeps being funneled into these for-profit complexes, it doesn't seem far-fetched to see the day when the script shifts and the expansion of youth sports enters its next phase.

Give me the lay of the land where you live. Do you get the sense high school baseball could be the next victim of the travel ball industrial complex?

Email: joekinsey@gmail.com