College Football Quick ‘Caps: Two Week 7 Best Bets

This Week 7 college football slate is insane and I have some gambling inspiration on the morning of. In addition to my TCU Horned Frogs and Clemson Tigers wagers placed earlier this week, let’s bet the USC Trojans and Kentucky Wildcats against the spread (ATS).

There’s obviously logic behind these bets but they are more or less FOMO on Saturday’s marquee college football matchups.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats, 7:30 p.m. ET

This is just a profitable spot for Kentucky in recent years. The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS with a +11.2 ATS margin as home underdogs over the last five seasons.

UK lost last week to the South Carolina Gamecocks but was missing possible future first-round QB Will Levis, which gives us some value on the Wildcats.

Kentucky QB Will Levis (Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Kentucky has a higher net success rate (+10.8% vs. 10.3%) and higher net line yards per snap (+0.32 vs. -0.10) than Mississippi State. But, the Wildcats are getting points in Kentucky despite covering four straight home games against the Bulldogs.

Finally, this is a Pros vs. Joe’s game in the betting market. According to VSIN, more money is on Kentucky at DraftKings Sportsbook and more bets have been placed on Mississippi State. It’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public because sharper bettors place bigger wagers.

BET: Kentucky +3.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook

USC Trojans at Utah Utes, 8:00 p.m. ET

There won’t be many more times we’ll get to bet USC plus points in Pac-12 games while Lincoln Riley is the head coach.

Riley previously coached Oklahoma from 2017-2021 and the Sooners were only underdogs in two Big XII games. Both vs. the Oklahoma State Cowboys, which has a better college football program than Utah.

USC WR Jordan Addison (Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

From a talent standpoint, few can match the athletes that USC puts on the field on Saturdays. And Riley is already the best coach in the Pac-12, with all due respect to Utah’s Kyle Whittingham.

Furthermore, the Trojans have a higher net expected points added per play, net Havoc rate, and net line yards per snap than the Utes.

The only edge I give Utah in this spot is home-field, which is only 2.5 points, maybe 3. I’ll take the extra point, point-and-a-half through the key number of 3 with USC.

BET: USC +3.5 (-105) at at DraftKings Sportsbook

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, Oct. 15, 1:00 a.m. ET.

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Written by Geoff Clark

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