Videos by OutKick
We had a nice bounce-back performance in Week 3, going 6-4 on our picks to run our season record to 19-14. It’s still very early in the season, but that’s a 58% winning percentage if you’ve been rolling with the picks. Even better, the NFL OutKick Six Pack went 5-0-1 to run its record to 9-3-1 on the year. I tweet out the OutKick Six Pack every Sunday, FYI.
Hopefully we can keep the winning momentum going with Week 4. Also, I will be in Knoxville for Florida-Tennessee for Big Noon Kickoff this weekend. So I look forward to seeing many of you at Neyland Stadium.
But now it’s time to make everyone rich. We’re going 9-0.
Gambling Picks, Week 4
As always, remember to #respectthepicks. Here we go:
Missouri +7.5 at Auburn and the under 51.5
Here’s the simple truth: If Auburn is over a touchdown better than Mizzou this year, then Mizzou should fire Eli Drinkwitz on the spot.
Auburn doesn’t have a quarterback who can throw the football. In 1918, this might have been okay, but it’s 2022. If you can’t stay within a touchdown of a team that can’t throw the football, your program is in truly dire straits.
And I refuse to believe things could be this bad for Mizzou.
Even though, to be fair, these are the two worst teams, I believe, in the SEC.
Given Auburn’s futility on offense, I expect this game to be relatively low scoring so I’m on the under as well. Give me Mizzou and the under to start our day off with a nice double win.
Clemson at Wake Forest, the over 55.5
I know there’s a lot of faith in the Clemson defense. But Wake Forest can’t stop anyone and no one can seem to stop the Demon Deacons either.
So far in 2022, Wake games against Power 5 opponents have posted the following totals: 80 and 72. I know the Clemson defense has only given up 42 points this year, but that feels like a mirage based on its opponents.
This one goes surging over the 55.5 number and lands closer to 70 than it does 60.
The result? An easy over win for all of us.
Florida at Tennessee -10.5
In the decade-plus that I’ve been posting weekly college football gambling picks, I have lost — conservatively — a billion dollars for gamblers all over the country by telling you to bet on Tennessee against Florida. Things have gotten so bad in the last 17 years, during which time Tennessee is 1-16 (!) against the Gators, that I’ve adopted every strategy known to man.
I’ve bet against what I thought was going to happen, I’ve emotionally hedged, I’ve sworn that I would never bet on this game ever again.
All of that.
But this year is different, guys.
This year I know exactly what is going to happen. Tennessee is going to come out and put a 1995 Alabama-style whipping on Florida. What do I mean by this? Back in 1995 no matter what happened Tennessee couldn’t beat Alabama. My entire youth was one Tennessee-Alabama loss after another. It didn’t matter how good or bad Tennessee was; the Vols always choked against Alabama.
And we aren’t talking, by the way, about Nick Saban-style Alabama teams.
I’m talking about losing to Alabama when it didn’t even score a touchdown. I’m talking about a tie against Alabama on a freaking two-point conversion attempt to end the game. (I still hate you, David Palmer.) But then in 1995, Tennessee went down to Alabama and just absolutely crushed the Tide — Peyton Manning to Joey Kent for a touchdown on the first play of the game.
Sometimes you have to break a string of futility with an ass-kicking. Because if the game is close, the psychology of it is you end up losing.
This year isn’t close, Tennessee whips that Gator ass. Tennessee 42 Florida 20
And if I’m wrong, I’m never betting this game again. (Until next year.)
Notre Dame at North Carolina -1.5
I’m going to be honest with y’all. This line is so absurdly fishy to me that I almost didn’t bet it.
How is undefeated UNC, finally back home in Chapel Hill, only a 1.5-point favorite over a Notre Dame team with no offense and zero confidence?
I know UNC hasn’t looked great in road games at App State and Georgia State, but the offense is for real. Getting a win over Notre Dame, even a reduced Irish team, is still a big deal for the Tar Heels.
Sometimes when a line looks fishy you should run the other way. But running the other way is for cowards, I’m diving full on here and loading up on UNC to cover and win comfortably.
Iowa at Rutgers +7.5 and the under 34.5
First, this is the lowest over/under I’ve ever bet, I think, in my life.
Let’s just pause here for a moment and consider the beauty and majesty of Iowa football that this kind of number is even possible.
So far Iowa’s games have posted 10, 17, and 27 total points.
Meanwhile Rutgers is 3-0 and essentially based on this line, the oddsmakers are telling you they will barely score at all. I mean, a 7.5-point underdog on a 34.5 total point line is a blowout.
And as long-time readers of OutKick know, I’ve always been a big Greg Schiano guy.
So give me Rutgers and the under.
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M, the under 48.5
College football gambling is often about determining what the pace of a game is going to be. And the one thing we’ve learned about Texas A&M so far this season is it can take the air out of a football game. So far the Aggie totals have gone for 31, 31, and 26 points in their three games, all at home to start the year.
Now the Aggies get a fourth straight “home” game—the game is at JerryWorld in Arlington—and I think they will drag Arkansas down into the mud with them. (Ordinarily this is where pigs like to be, so the Razorbacks may love it too.)
This is one of the most fascinating games of the weekend to me because it sets the table for the SEC West. Are the Razorbacks or A&M the best bet to challenge Alabama for the division crown? Heck, is there anyone any good in the SEC West at all this season other than Alabama?
We’ll find out Saturday in College Station.
But the thing I’m most confident of in this battle isn’t either team, it’s the under.
Vanderbilt +40.5 at Alabama
This is already the fifth game for Vanderbilt, and the Commodores have shown, at a minimum, that they are capable of scoring points. Granted, the competition hasn’t been great, but Vandy has scored 63, 42, 25, and 38 points in their four games so far. Given how big of a favorite Alabama is, simple math would suggest that if Vandy can score 14 or 17 points, they’re likely to cover this number no matter what the Crimson Tide does on offense.
And I think Vandy can do that.
So with a great deal of nervousness, I’m taking the Commodores to cover the huge number on the road in Tuscaloosa.
There you have it, boys and girls, we’re going 9-0.
Let’s get rich, kids.
See you guys in Knoxville on Saturday.
2 CommentsLeave a Reply
Ahh…the game is in Jerry World, not Aggieland. After 2024 that will all change, thank God!!!
See my comment.