Last week was a disaster for the picks. We went 3-8, dropping our season total to 51-61 on the year.
No excuses, we’ve got to win down the stretch to get back to positive territory.
I’m headed out to Phoenix shortly and then fly back for Alabama-Ole Miss in Oxford this weekend. Then I’ll be in South Florida next week for the Patriot Awards with Fox News followed by Lexington, Ky., for Georgia at Kentucky. So keep your head on a swivel, I’ll be everywhere over the next two weeks.
While our college football picks have been a mess so far this year, our NFL Six Pack is rolling. Qe are 35-24 so far this season on those picks. I tweet them out every Sunday a couple of hours before kickoff so you can follow me on Twitter for those.
Before I give you this week’s picks, there are odds for making the College Football Playoff, which is a relatively new gambling offering. These are good for arguing with your college football buddies over which teams are going to make the playoff.
Odds to Make the CFB Playoff:
- Georgia -4000
- Ohio State -700
- Tennessee -250
- Michigan +135
- Oregon +240
- USC +300
- LSU +430
- UCLA +500
- Clemson +650
- TCU +650
- Alabama +1100
- North Carolina +1100
- Utah +2400
- Ole Miss +4800
Okay, here we go with 13 winners for the week.
Let’s get rich, kids.
GAMBLING PICKS, WEEK 11
LSU at Arkansas +3.5
I know, I know, Arkansas has been a mess and is coming off a home loss against Liberty. Meanwhile LSU just beat Alabama and has complete control of the SEC West in its hands.
Why in the world would you hop on Arkansas here?
Because the Razorbacks are the value play.
Even if I’m going to be almost the only person in the country betting on Arkansas.
Woo pig plus the points, Razorbacks!
Missouri at Tennessee -20.5
Tennessee was awful on offense last week at Georgia and now they return for an early kickoff at noon eastern against Mizzou. The Tigers haven’t been able to score at all, at least not consistently, but they do have a good defense.
Unfortunately, I think they’re running into an angry buzzsaw for the final home game of the Volunteer football season. Last year Heupel hung 62 on the Tigers, this year the points are less, but the cover comes with ease.
Give me the Vols 42-10.
Notre Dame at Navy +15.5
We’ve got another team coming off a huge win headed on the road for a game against Navy, which almost always takes the air out of the football.
Plus, the Irish have been a total enigma this season, beating really good teams soundly and losing by quite a bit to bad teams.
Now they’re going to win on the road in a low-scoring game by over two touchdowns? Nope. Give me Navy to cover.
Vanderbilt +18 at Kentucky
So far in the SEC this season Kentucky has not scored more than 27 points.
This is significant because the Wildcats are a pretty huge favorite, at 18 points.
Now I get it, Vanderbilt has been bad, but the Commodores have scored points most weeks. And Kentucky’s defense has given up at least 17 points to every SEC foe.
What’s the math tell us then? This feels like a 10-point Wildcat win, something like 24-14. Which means we cover with ease.
Liberty at UConn +14.5
Last week Liberty notched one of its biggest wins in program history, winning on the road as a two-touchdown underdog against Arkansas.
Now the Flames are headed all the way across the country, as big favorites, against a much improved UConn team.
A major letdown effort, the Flames win, but only by a touchdown. Boom, go Huskies.
Alabama at Ole Miss +12 and the over 64.5
Lane Kiffin has had two weeks to get ready for one of the biggest games in Ole Miss football history yet the Rebels are still nearly a two-touchdown underdog.
This feels downright disrespectful.
Meanwhile Alabama, save for the game against Arkansas, hasn’t been very good on the road this season. Narrowly escaping Texas on the final play and losing on the final play at Tennessee and at LSU. Combine that with the fact that this Alabama team is essentially eliminated from SEC and national title contention and we don’t have any idea how the Tide will play in this scenario.
I like a close game in Oxford, meaning I love the Rebels plus the points. And I also love the over too as I think Lane will have some success against this Bama defense.
Wisconsin at Iowa, the under 35.5
Both offenses stink.
This is the most Big Ten game possible.
Bad weather, bad offenses and lots of field goals.
One team wins 9-6, but you won’t care which team that is because you’ve got the under.
South Carolina at Florida, the over 58.5
The Florida Gators, sneakily, are starting to play pretty decent offensive football down the stretch.
Which means this game is all about pace.
I think the Gators play fast and South Carolina keeps up because Florida’s defense hasn’t been great.
The over soars well into the sixties and you’re a winner.
Washington +13.5 at Oregon
Everyone’s in love with Oregon all of a sudden.
What’s that mean?
There’s value in betting on the other side of the Ducks, especially in major rivalry games with high totals expected. Washington’s a sneaky 7-2 and has run off three straight Pac-12 wins,
Give me the Huskies and the points here.
TCU +7.5 at Texas
This line feels flat out disrespectful to TCU, which is up to No. 4 in the College Football Playoff rankings and undefeated on the year.
How many times, over the past decade, have we seen Texas overvalued in a big game? As a Tennessee fan I’d love to see Texas win this game, but the Longhorns as a pretty big favorite in a big game makes me nervous.
I’ll take TCU and the points here.
Georgia at Mississippi State +16
Mississippi State is one of the most difficult teams in the SEC to predict.
The MSU Bulldogs were great at home against Texas A&M and Arkansas at the mid-point of the season, but they just snuck away with a win over Auburn in overtime last week.
Now the Georgia Bulldogs, the best team in college football, are coming to town.
And I’m, gulp, betting on Mike Leach’s team to keep it under 16.
Texas A&M at Auburn -1.5
How bad are Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies playing right now? I’m taking Auburn with an interim coach to beat A&M this weekend on the Plains.
I just think Auburn is playing better right now. Which is wild to say.
Plus, the only SEC game Jimbo Fisher’s team has won so far this year was a doink off the uprights against Arkansas.
War Eagle, baby! Auburn wins.
There are the picks. We’re going 13-0. See you in Oxford this weekend.