It was another week of just staying alive. We went 6-7, dipping to 23-19 on the year with the Outkick picks. That’s a 55% winning percentage so we are still in the money, but it’s time to re-establish dominance over the board.
I am going to take back my rightful place as the greatest gambler who has ever lived. And that starts this week with a 10-0 slate.
I’ll be on the road at Texas A&M-Alabama this weekend and then next weekend we will be back in Knoxville for Alabama-Tennessee. Then we are doing a cool weekend on Oct. 22 at Luke Bryan’s house to help raise money for congenital heart disease treatments and research. The rest of the schedule will be fleshed out from there.
But for now, let’s get you rich.
Gambling Picks, Week 6
Nebraska -3 at Rutgers
In a sign of how far the Cornhusker program has fallen, this line opened as a pick ’em many places before Nebraska edged into favorite’s position.
The reason, to a large extent, is because Rutgers has been pretty bad in the Big Ten so far, losing by 17 to Iowa and 39 to Ohio State.
If Rutgers is going to have a chance to make a bowl in year three of Greg Schiano’s era, then this game and Indiana are must wins.
Unfortunately for Rutgers, I think Nebraska’s quite a bit more talented and gets the Friday night cover.
Side note: How about Adrian Martinez, after starting a billion games for the Cornhuskers, heading to Kansas State and immediately becoming fantastic? This is just salt in the wounds for Nebraska fans.
Arkansas at Mississippi State, the over 61.5
State has surged out to an 8.5-point favorite as questions swirl about KJ Jefferson’s availability. Clearly this line is suggesting he isn’t going to play. But it’s already out to such an extent that I like the over better here than taking the Bulldogs to cover this big line.
Why? Because if Jefferson plays and plays well this line is way inflated and I think both teams will score no matter who the Arkansas quarterback is.
In fact, I think Mississippi State, which ran up big numbers on a very good Texas A&M defense, is going to score 35 or more.
And I think the Razorbacks will move the football too.
So give me the over in Starkvegas.
Tennessee at LSU +3
This is a complete and total battered Vol syndrome pick.
I think Tennessee is way better on the offensive side of the ball than LSU, but this Vol defense was pretty awful against Florida, particularly in the secondary. And Tennessee didn’t come out and dominate against either Pitt or Florida, the two best teams on the Vol schedule so far. That makes me think this game will be close too.
Sometimes you just have to sit back and ask, is Tennessee really going to be 5-0 against Alabama next week, winning three tough games at Pitt, against Florida and at LSU in the process?
I just can’t bring myself to believe it. At least not in the second year for Josh Heupel.
Plus, the second half LSU played against Mississippi State in Death Valley was outstanding football and LSU is feeling great about itself coming off a 17-point road comeback at Auburn.
I just feel like LSU keeps it close and steals it late, so give me the Bayou Bengals as the home underdog plus the points.
Auburn at Georgia -29.5
We got burned last week taking Georgia to cover the 28-point line at Mizzou and now Vegas is back with another monster Georgia line for us.
Have I learned my lesson?
Of course not, I love Georgia here.
Why? I’m not sure this Auburn offense will even be able to score a single touchdown against this Georgia defense. It may be the South’s oldest rivalry, but it’s going to be the South’s biggest blowout on Saturday.
The Dawgs are barking, 42-3 is the final.
Utah at UCLA, the under 65.5
I know, I know … Chip Kelly’s offense has been firing on all cylinders and Utah has shown the ability to score some points too. For UCLA, the Bruins have gone over 30 every week, and have scored 40 or more in four out of five games.
But I think Kyle Whittingham dictates pace in this game and Utah keeps the lid on the explosiveness on both sides.
So far, other than the poor performance against Florida, Utah has allowed a total of 43 points in its other four games.
I think the Utes throttle this UCLA offense enough to keep it under a relatively big number of 65.5.
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt +18
This is a schedule gambling play: Ole Miss is coming off a hard-fought, huge home win over Kentucky and Vanderbilt had a bye week after getting mauled at Alabama.
The scene in Nashville will be comparatively calm and hard to get super excited.
That lulls Ole Miss to sleep early and allows Vandy to hop out with a couple of early touchdowns. The Dores ride an early lead to a late cover.
Ohio State -26.5 at Michigan State
Michigan State has lost its last three games by 11, 27, and 14.
It feels like the Spartans, quite simply, are not a good football team.
Meanwhile the Buckeyes, who are rounding into mid-season form, are scoring a ton of points as CJ Stroud gets more comfortable with his young receivers.
The points keep piling on and the Buckeyes win by over 30.
Iowa at Illinois, the over 35.5
I’m doing it again. I’m taking the over in an Iowa game.
Oddsmakers just keep daring us to take the over by continuing to lower these numbers. A 35.5 number in a college game is one of the lowest I’ve ever seen.
And I feel like quite a few people are sleeping on this Bret Bielema Illinois team. They’ve won their last three games by 21, 31, and 24. The latter win, over his old school of Wisconsin, got Paul Chryst fired.
This feels like a 24-21 game decided by a late touchdown.
Who wins? It doesn’t matter. Because you hit the over.
Texas A&M +24 at Alabama
We’ve got uncertainty for Bama with Bryce Young’s health and yet the Tide are still a 24-point home favorite. This feels downright disrespectful to Texas A&M.
I totally understand that the Aggies have no offense. But their defense, at least prior to last week’s debacle in Starkville, held up pretty well on the season and seems quite talented.
While Alabama and Nick Saban clearly want to bring the pain and crush A&M’s soul after Jimbo Fisher’s comments in the offseason, it doesn’t feel like the Bama offense will be firing on all cylinders.
So I may be the only guy betting on the Aggies to cover this weekend, but I’ll roll with A&M to cover the 24.
And if Bama is up by 30 at halftime, at least my 12 year old will be happy.
FSU at NC State -3
You know how last week every time NC State had a chance to make a play at Clemson they tripped all over themselves and choked away our chance at a cover?
Well now that no one is really paying attention to the Wolfpack again, I think they bounce back and put up a really good performance against an FSU team coming off a disappointing home loss to Wake Forest.
The pack is howling in Raleigh and leading us to a 10-0 week.
I’m taking my two youngest boys to the Texas A&M-Alabama game. We’re looking forward to a fun weekend in Tuscaloosa.
Hope to see many of you there. Let’s all enjoy the 10-0 weekend.