We’re back, baby!
Last week we went 7-4, reversing the picks jinx and, frankly, nearly doing even better as we lost two of these four bets by a half point and another on a last second score by TCU to cover the number. (To be fair, Oklahoma State plus the points may have been our worst bet of the year as we got completely trounced there.)
But the result is we’re now back to 48-53 on the year, within hailing distance of returning to positive territory and finishing November in the black.
But that’s the future. For now, let’s just exult in the luxurious present.
- Outkick just set a massive new all-time record for site readers — so thanks to all of you reading this right now.
- The University of Tennessee is ranked number one in college football for the first time since the 1998 season.
- My Titans, thanks to the fact that everyone else in the AFC South stinks, have taken a commanding lead to win the division for a third straight year.
- America is set for an incredible red tsunami in six days which is going to sweep out many of my coronabro foes
- Elon Musk bought Twitter.
I mean, this is the greatest fall of my life. I can’t even imagine how frustrating it must be to hate me right now.
The only thing that can make this fall more perfect? A perfect gambling week.
And let me be honest with you, I absolutely love the board this week. I feel like Neo when he realized he could dodge bullets, I feel like Biff with the almanac making my bets this week.
Which is why we’re going 11-0. Let’s get rich, kids.
GAMBLING PICKS, WEEK 10
Kentucky at Mizzou +2.5 and the under 41.5
I absolutely love the under in this game.
In fact, there are several lines I love this week that I’m going to put together as a parlay to end the picks column this week, but this is going to be a brutal offensive struggle that ends with Mizzou winning 14-10.
I really feel like Tennessee broke Kentucky last weekend and I love that Mizzou is playing with new life after winning on the road at South Carolina.
Let’s start it off with two winners in the noon eastern kick! I like Mizzou plus the points, but I particularly love the under here.
Maryland +5 at Wisconsin
Maryland might be the least respected team in the Big Ten. Did you know the Terps are 6-2? Unless you’re a Maryland fan, I bet that stuns you.
Maryland has lost by seven at Michigan and by two against Purdue, otherwise they could be 8-0 right now.
Off a bye week, the Terps are headed to Wisconsin, which has been totally impossible to predict this season. Heck, just a couple of weeks ago Wisconsin lost to Michigan State. Now they are a five point favorite over a Maryland team that has already proved it can go on the road and play well against top competition.
I like the Terps to potentially win outright this weekend, and definitely like them plus the points.
Minnesota at Nebraska +16
Does anyone in the state of Nebraska still have pride?
This is just a flat out disrespectful line.
Minnesota should never be favored by 16 over Nebraska in Lincoln. I don’t care what the circumstances are. It just shouldn’t ever be allowed to happen in college football.
We all know how this game ends, with Nebraska losing in brutal heartrending fashion after an inexcusable late collapse.
But they cover.
Give me the Cornhuskers plus the massive amount of points.
Tennessee +8.5 at Georgia
I’ll be in Athens for this game with Big Noon Kickoff on Saturday morning, but I feel like I’ve already had too many incredible wins this fall to really expect the Vols to keep rolling. I got to watch the Florida and Alabama wins in Neyland and now Tennessee and Georgia are essentially playing to lock up one of the playoff spots. (I don’t think either team will lose to the three remaining teams on their schedule, but the Vol schedule is easier than the Georgia schedule down the stretch.)
Ultimately I just look at both these teams and Tennessee’s offense is better than anything Georgia has, especially since the Bulldog pass rush hasn’t been elite. If this game were in Neyland, I’d be 100% confident the Vols win. But going on the road against the defending national champs and winning in their stadium doesn’t happen very often.
Which is the only thing that gives me pause here when it comes to picking Tennessee outright on the money line.
But I love the Vols plus the points here. (As you guys know since I tweeted out to take the Vols +11.5 when this game opened and in the lookahead line a few weeks ago.)
Until someone shuts down this Vol offense, I feel like you have to start with the expectation that Tennessee is scoring 34+.
And if you can score 34+ you put an inordinate amount of pressure on the opposing team.
Plus, I just don’t feel like Tennessee’s playing with a ton of pressure on them right now. No one expected the Vols to be 8-0 right now. If you lose, 11-1, which would be the likely outcome, is still an incredible season.
So give me the Vols to cover this number in Athens and if you want to be really aggressive take them on the money line.
Oklahoma State -2.5 at Kansas
Okay, we got a woodshed gambling beating last week, but I think the Cowboys show up with a great deal of pride this week at Kansas.
No way the Fighting Mike Gundy’s let us down like this again.
Give me the Pokes by a field goal or more.
Liberty at Arkansas, the over 63.5
This is the second game I absolutely love on the ticket this week.
Hugh Freeze is auditioning for the Auburn job, which means he wants to put on a show at Fayetteville this weekend. Meanwhile the Razorback offense, back healthy, is rolling again.
I just don’t see any way this game isn’t a 42-35 style shootout, meaning you surge way over the total number here.
Alabama at LSU +13.5
This number is just too high.
Everyone gave up on LSU after Tennessee blew them out by 27 in Baton Rouge early in October. But since that beat down Brian Kelly, to his credit, has built his team back up. LSU got a nice win at Florida and then followed it up with a whipping of Ole Miss two weeks ago.
Now we get a primetime game down on the bayou and LSU is playing with complete house money. There are no expectations of anything at all.
Meanwhile, let’s be honest, Alabama has been pretty wobbly on the road so far this year. Barely winning at Texas, losing at Tennessee, in fact, other than the Arkansas game, Bama has been pretty rough on the road for much of the past two years.
And you’re giving me nearly two touchdowns with LSU here?
I just love the Bayou Bengals to cover and potentially steal one late.
Auburn at Mississippi State -12.5
Auburn fired its coach and Mike Leach has had two weeks to get ready for the Tigers.
I think this is going to be a complete and total bloodbatch in StarkVegas.
This is another game I love on the SEC parlay. Give me the Bulldogs by 20 or more.
Clemson -3.5 at Notre Dame
I haven’t been sold on Clemson so far this year, but nothing I’ve seen from Marcus Freeman at Notre Dame leads me to believe the Irish are ready to pull off an upset win this big.
Look, Notre Dame is talented enough to pull off the upset, but Clemson has been playing, and winning, big games like this for a long time in the Dabo Swinney era.
Until Notre Dame pulls off a win like this under Marcus Freeman, I’m not going to believe they can do it.
Give me the Tigers to cover on the road.
South Carolina at Vanderbilt +7
I know Vanderbilt isn’t good, but the Commodores were competitive on the road at Mizzou and then hit their bye week with two weeks to prepare for a South Carolina team that just lost a tough one at home to Mizzou and isn’t very good offensively.
I feel like the Commodores will keep this one close and have a really good chance to win it late.
Give me the Dores here.
Okay, when things are rolling — and this fall definitely classifies as rolling — sometimes you pour on steam and have some fun with parlays.
So I’ve got two SEC infused parlays for y’all this weekend.
My three-game parlay:
- UK-Mizzou under 41.5
- Liberty at Arkansas over 63
- LSU +13.5
My six-game SEC parlay:
- UK-Mizzou under 41.5
- Liberty at Arkansas over 63
- LSU +13.5
- Tennessee +8.5
- Mississippi State -13
- Vandy +7
Okay, let’s get rich, kids! We’re going 11-0! See y’all in Athens.