Clay Travis’ Gambling Picks For College Football Week 3: Tennessee-Florida, Colorado-Colorado State & More

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Last week was a mess. 

We went 5-9 running our yearly record to 17-15

I could dwell on the failures or I could immediately look toward the future. And I think all of you know I’m a front window not a rear window guy at this point. 

And let’s be honest, this is a weak slate of games. Amazingly, there isn’t a single match up of top 25 teams this week. 

Which is why I’m dialing it back and focusing intently here and just going to give you ten winners. 

Yep, only ten games to bet this week. 

Which will make the 10-0 taste particularly sweet.Β 

Virginia at Maryland, the over 49.5

In a battle of two schools that should still be in the ACC, Maryland, the Big Ten school that I always forget is in the Big Ten, is going to win. But the over will cash with ease because Virginia is 0-2 and can’t stop anyone. 

I could make this more complicated than it needs to be, but I’d rather go ahead and lock all of you in with a win on Friday night to start our weekend on a winning foot. 

So hop on the over here and let’s be 1-0 when Saturday morning arrives. 

LSU at Mississippi State +10

I get it, LSU scored a billion points last week on Grambling and all of a sudden we’re supposed to forget the entire second half against Florida State. 

Not me. 

State has won by ten, lost by three and lost by 15 in the past three years of this series. (And last year’s beat was a tough one). 

But in Starkvegas things have been even more interesting: three of the last four have covered this number, including an outright win. 

So what happens on Saturday?

The Bulldogs cover again and the dogs are barking all day long in Starkvegas. 

LAWRENCE, KS – SEPTEMBER 08: Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema in the fourth quarter of a college football game between the Illinois Fighting Illini and Kansas Jayhawks on Sep 8, 2023 at David Booth memorial Stadium in Lawrence, KS. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Penn State at Illinois, the over 48

Let’s just analyze what’s happened so far this season, the Illini have given up 28 to Toledo and 34 to Kansas. Meanwhile Penn State has got a solid offense that has put up 38 on West Virginia and 63 last week on Delaware. 

So why in the world would you think Penn State is scoring any less than 35 in this game?

Meanwhile Illinois has a decent offense and is at home, meaning they go for 20+. 

The result, this game soars well over 48, the over’s the play. 

Kansas State -4.5 at Missouri

Missouri, sad to say, is not a good football team. 

Kansas State, I believe, is a good football team. 

Sometimes it’s just this simple. 

Plus, last year Kansas State won by 23 in Manhattan. Are you really telling me the outcome is going to change that much this year? Give me the Wildcats for the win by seven or more on the road at Mizzou.Β 

South Carolina +28 at Georgia

This is a monster line for a rivalry game. 

And I feel like I’ve said that for several years in a row now. 

And lost every year by taking the Gamecocks. 

Georgia has won by 29, 27, and 41 in the past three years.  

This year the Gamecocks come ready to play. 

And lose by 24!

Meaning we cover. 

ULM at Texas A&M -36.5

This is my, “We just got our ass kicked so now we are going to kick the ass of a bad team next week to try and hope our fans forget about us getting our ass kicked last week,” special.

Legit this is the entire analysis. 

It’s science. 

A&M by 50. 

GAINESVILLE, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 09: Treyaun Webb #20 of the Florida Gators celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown during the first half of a game against the McNeese State Cowboys at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on September 09, 2023 in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)

Tennessee at Florida +7.5

I have lost my bet on the Tennessee-Florida game, conservatively, for 643 consecutive years. 

It doesn’t matter what I pick, I’m wrong. 

Every year for 643 consecutive years. (CNN is going to fact check this article and point out this number of gambling losses is impossible because Columbus hadn’t discovered America yet so the teams haven’t played 643 times.)

But they’re wrong. 

I’m confident Tennessee lost to Florida in 1380 too. (That 1380 Florida defense was STOUT.)

Because Tennessee always loses to Florida. Death, taxes, and Tennessee losing to Florida. Even when Florida is awful. Even when Florida only scores ten points, it’s truly uncanny how often Tennessee has managed to lose this game. 

So when you tell me that Tennessee is the biggest favorite over Florida in my life and that this game is being played at Florida, I just think I must be taking crazy pills. You want me to bet on Tennessee as over a touchdown favorite? I just can’t do it.  

The Gators cover. And Tennessee will probably miss a field goal on the final play to lose the game. I’ve just seen it happen too many times. And, yes, this is true even though Florida is awful this year. 

The GatorsΒ +7.5 is the play.Β 

Vanderbilt at UNLV, the under 56.5

I’m not an expert on football scheduling. 

But if you’re trying to make a bowl game, why would you make your team go to Wake Forest and UNLV? Shouldn’t you pay two schools to come to Vandy and try to get four wins out of conference? That way you’d just need to go 2-6 in conference and you make a bowl game. 

Anyway, that’s not happening. 

And the Commodores are headed out to Sin City where I think defenses control the day. 

Give me the under, which is a bit like sticking on 16, but the next card is up is a face card and the dealer is busting. 

Wyoming +28.5 at Texas

The Longhorns are still drunk from their biggest win since the Rose Bowl against USC. 

And now you’re telling me they have to turn around and get ready for a 2-0 Wyoming team that has already beaten Texas Tech and has absolutely nothing to lose in the definition of a trap game for Texas?

Come on, Longhorn fans, is there anything more Texas than beating Alabama and then losing to Wyoming the next week? I don’t think that happens, but I do think the Longhorns start slow and the Cowboys cover with ease. 

BOULDER, CO – SEPTEMBER 09: Interior view of the stadium during the home opener game between the Colorado Buffaloes and the the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday, September 9, 2023 at Folsom Field in Boulder, CO. (Photo by Nick Tre. Smith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Colorado State +22.5 at Colorado 

I know, I know. 

I’m betting against Colorado again.

After Deion and company made me look like an idiot by taking Nebraska to cover last week on Big Noon. 

But the market is just too inflated in what is an under the radar major rivalry game. 

Sure, these two teams haven’t played since 2019, but the Rams have the inexplicable second week of the season bye week so they have been plotting for this game for two weeks now. 

Plus, come on, you’ve got two huge wins over TCU and Nebraska and on the horizon you’ve got games against Oregon and USC. And in the meantime, you plop a Colorado State team right in the middle here?

It’s a trap!

I’m not saying Colorado will lose — the Rams already lost by 26 to Washington State — but I do think they struggle to cover. 

Give me Colorado State plus all the points here.   

There you have it, boys and girls, we’re going 10-0. 

Get rich, kids. 

Written by Clay Travis

Clay Travis is the founder of the fastest growing national multimedia platform, OutKick, that produces and distributes engaging content across sports and pop culture to millions of fans across the country. OutKick was created by Travis in 2011 and sold to the Fox Corporation in 2021.

One of the most electrifying and outspoken personalities in the industry, Travis hosts OutKick The Show where he provides his unfiltered opinion on the most compelling headlines throughout sports, culture, and politics. He also makes regular appearances on FOX News Media as a contributor providing analysis on a variety of subjects ranging from sports news to the cultural landscape. Throughout the college football season, Travis is on Big Noon Kickoff for Fox Sports breaking down the game and the latest storylines.

Additionally, Travis serves as a co-host of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, a three-hour conservative radio talk program syndicated across Premiere Networks radio stations nationwide.

Previously, he launched OutKick The Coverage on Fox Sports Radio that included interviews and listener interactions and was on Fox Sports Bet for four years. Additionally, Travis started an iHeartRadio Original Podcast called Wins & Losses that featured in-depth conversations with the biggest names in sports.

Travis is a graduate of George Washington University as well as Vanderbilt Law School. Based in Nashville, he is the author of Dixieland Delight, On Rocky Top, and Republicans Buy Sneakers Too.


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  1. It does warm my heart knowing that Tennessee fans still are very scarred by their series against UF, and that despite winning last year are still not sure about things given their 20 year drought in the Swamp. I’ve already declared to friends that UF is winning so hopefully they don’t make me look like an asshole…

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