Videos by OutKick
Last week was a mess.
We went 5-9 running our yearly record to 17-15.
I could dwell on the failures or I could immediately look toward the future. And I think all of you know I’m a front window not a rear window guy at this point.
And let’s be honest, this is a weak slate of games. Amazingly, there isn’t a single match up of top 25 teams this week.
Which is why I’m dialing it back and focusing intently here and just going to give you ten winners.
Yep, only ten games to bet this week.
Which will make the 10-0 taste particularly sweet.
Virginia at Maryland, the over 49.5
In a battle of two schools that should still be in the ACC, Maryland, the Big Ten school that I always forget is in the Big Ten, is going to win. But the over will cash with ease because Virginia is 0-2 and can’t stop anyone.
I could make this more complicated than it needs to be, but I’d rather go ahead and lock all of you in with a win on Friday night to start our weekend on a winning foot.
So hop on the over here and let’s be 1-0 when Saturday morning arrives.
LSU at Mississippi State +10
I get it, LSU scored a billion points last week on Grambling and all of a sudden we’re supposed to forget the entire second half against Florida State.
State has won by ten, lost by three and lost by 15 in the past three years of this series. (And last year’s beat was a tough one).
But in Starkvegas things have been even more interesting: three of the last four have covered this number, including an outright win.
So what happens on Saturday?
The Bulldogs cover again and the dogs are barking all day long in Starkvegas.
Penn State at Illinois, the over 48
Let’s just analyze what’s happened so far this season, the Illini have given up 28 to Toledo and 34 to Kansas. Meanwhile Penn State has got a solid offense that has put up 38 on West Virginia and 63 last week on Delaware.
So why in the world would you think Penn State is scoring any less than 35 in this game?
Meanwhile Illinois has a decent offense and is at home, meaning they go for 20+.
The result, this game soars well over 48, the over’s the play.
Kansas State -4.5 at Missouri
Missouri, sad to say, is not a good football team.
Kansas State, I believe, is a good football team.
Sometimes it’s just this simple.
Plus, last year Kansas State won by 23 in Manhattan. Are you really telling me the outcome is going to change that much this year? Give me the Wildcats for the win by seven or more on the road at Mizzou.
South Carolina +28 at Georgia
This is a monster line for a rivalry game.
And I feel like I’ve said that for several years in a row now.
And lost every year by taking the Gamecocks.
Georgia has won by 29, 27, and 41 in the past three years.
This year the Gamecocks come ready to play.
And lose by 24!
Meaning we cover.
ULM at Texas A&M -36.5
This is my, “We just got our ass kicked so now we are going to kick the ass of a bad team next week to try and hope our fans forget about us getting our ass kicked last week,” special.
Legit this is the entire analysis.
A&M by 50.
Tennessee at Florida +7.5
I have lost my bet on the Tennessee-Florida game, conservatively, for 643 consecutive years.
It doesn’t matter what I pick, I’m wrong.
Every year for 643 consecutive years. (CNN is going to fact check this article and point out this number of gambling losses is impossible because Columbus hadn’t discovered America yet so the teams haven’t played 643 times.)
But they’re wrong.
I’m confident Tennessee lost to Florida in 1380 too. (That 1380 Florida defense was STOUT.)
Because Tennessee always loses to Florida. Death, taxes, and Tennessee losing to Florida. Even when Florida is awful. Even when Florida only scores ten points, it’s truly uncanny how often Tennessee has managed to lose this game.
So when you tell me that Tennessee is the biggest favorite over Florida in my life and that this game is being played at Florida, I just think I must be taking crazy pills. You want me to bet on Tennessee as over a touchdown favorite? I just can’t do it.
The Gators cover. And Tennessee will probably miss a field goal on the final play to lose the game. I’ve just seen it happen too many times. And, yes, this is true even though Florida is awful this year.
The Gators +7.5 is the play.
Vanderbilt at UNLV, the under 56.5
I’m not an expert on football scheduling.
But if you’re trying to make a bowl game, why would you make your team go to Wake Forest and UNLV? Shouldn’t you pay two schools to come to Vandy and try to get four wins out of conference? That way you’d just need to go 2-6 in conference and you make a bowl game.
Anyway, that’s not happening.
And the Commodores are headed out to Sin City where I think defenses control the day.
Give me the under, which is a bit like sticking on 16, but the next card is up is a face card and the dealer is busting.
Wyoming +28.5 at Texas
The Longhorns are still drunk from their biggest win since the Rose Bowl against USC.
And now you’re telling me they have to turn around and get ready for a 2-0 Wyoming team that has already beaten Texas Tech and has absolutely nothing to lose in the definition of a trap game for Texas?
Come on, Longhorn fans, is there anything more Texas than beating Alabama and then losing to Wyoming the next week? I don’t think that happens, but I do think the Longhorns start slow and the Cowboys cover with ease.
Colorado State +22.5 at Colorado
I know, I know.
I’m betting against Colorado again.
After Deion and company made me look like an idiot by taking Nebraska to cover last week on Big Noon.
But the market is just too inflated in what is an under the radar major rivalry game.
Sure, these two teams haven’t played since 2019, but the Rams have the inexplicable second week of the season bye week so they have been plotting for this game for two weeks now.
Plus, come on, you’ve got two huge wins over TCU and Nebraska and on the horizon you’ve got games against Oregon and USC. And in the meantime, you plop a Colorado State team right in the middle here?
It’s a trap!
I’m not saying Colorado will lose — the Rams already lost by 26 to Washington State — but I do think they struggle to cover.
Give me Colorado State plus all the points here.
There you have it, boys and girls, we’re going 10-0.
Get rich, kids.