Just in time for Thanksgiving, all of you can be thankful for the Outkick college football gambling picks. Because we had another good week — 9-5 — to push our record back above .500 on the season. This success is much to the chagrin of fade the picks guy, who has been completely crushed the past two weeks. We are now 70-69 on the season and if we can finish the next two weeks in style, we can push ourselves well above .500 on the year.
We also went 5-1 in the Outkick NFL Six Pack and are now sitting at a robust 43-28 on the season there. Combine all our gambling picks on the season and if you’d bet them all, we would have made you money with a 54% win rate in the NFL and college football combined.
And making money is always the goal.
Which is why I’m happy to be back this day before Thanksgiving with 15 winners to make you even more money. #getrichkids
Not to brag or draw attention to myself — as you all know, I’m far too humble for that — but we have also won four straight best bets on Big Noon Kickoff as well. And speaking of Big Noon, I’ll be up in Columbus with the Big Noon crew for the Michigan-Ohio State game on Saturday. So that should be lots of fun and I look forward to meeting many of you up there.
Okay, here we go with our 15 winners this week:
COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMBLING PICKS, WEEK 13
This is a tough game to pick because the Egg Bowl is a monster rivalry game and neither of these teams have been particularly consistent down the stretch of the season.
Toss in the uncertainty about Lane Kiffin’s employment status — not to mention the crushing the Rebels took at Arkansas — and the fact that Mississippi State’s offense can be white hot or nonexistent and this becomes even more challenging.
Ultimately I think both teams struggle a bit offensively and I’m also coming back to the fact that the past five years in this rivalry game have all gone under this number.
Baylor +8.5 at Texas
This number just feels way too steep to me.
I know, I know, Baylor suffered a really tough loss in its home finale against TCU last weekend, but are you really telling me Baylor’s not going to be fired up for its game against Texas? Meanwhile the Longhorn offense, at times, has been wobbly.
Yes, Texas crushed Kansas last weekend, but four of the past five Big 12 games for the Longhorns have been decided by 3, 7, 7 and 7 points. I think this is another touchdown or less game. Give me the Bears to cover.
Arkansas at Mizzou, the under 55.5
This is a sneaky big game for both teams.
Win and Arkansas has righted the ship by finishing 7-5 with two solid SEC wins to close out the year. Lose and the Razorbacks finish 6-6 in year three of Sam Pittman’s regime and there is quite a bit of apprehension out there in Razorback land.
The same thing is true for Mizzou.
Get the win and Mizzou fights its way back to 6-6; lose and you’re 5-7 and Eli Drinkwitz has gone three straight years at Mizzou without posting a winning record.
Nebraska at Iowa, the under 38.5
It’s Nebraska and Iowa.
Don’t overthink this.
Just take the under and thank me later.
Florida +10 at Florida State
I know Florida State has been playing really well down the stretch run of the season and Florida is coming off an awful loss at Vanderbilt, but this line really surprised me. Prior to that mess of a performance at Vanderbilt, the Gators had been rounding into pretty good form.
Plus, the only team that has beaten Florida by more than 10 all year is Georgia.
Maybe the Gators will get blown out by FSU, but I just don’t see it.
Michigan at Ohio State -7.5
As I mentioned above, I’ll be at this game in Columbus.
And given the injuries Michigan has on the offensive side of the ball and the raucous crowd environment Ohio State will bring to bear, I just don’t see how the Buckeyes fail to pull away and win by double digits. That’s traditionally what we’ve seen in many of these games.
In fact, here are the margins in the last four games between these two: Michigan by 15, Ohio State by 29, Ohio State by 23, Ohio State by 11. (The Buckeyes would have been favored to win by double digits in the canceled 2020 covid game too.) I think the Buckeyes keep the trend going and win by 14 to stamp their ticket to the College Football Playoff.
Georgia Tech +36.5 at Georgia
Look, Georgia Tech isn’t a great team, but this line is downright disrespectful.
The Yellow Jackets are coming off a very solid win at North Carolina, where they managed to corral a really high powered Tar Heel offense and come back from a 17-point deficit to win outright on the road.
Plus, Georgia has only beaten one team by 37 or more since mid-September, Vanderbilt back on Oct. 15.
Couple that with the fact that Georgia, if it gets up a decent amount, will likely get the starters out to help rest them for the SEC Championship Game next weekend, and I just think this is an outrageous line.
South Carolina +14.5 at Clemson
Truth be told, I’m not sure I’ll ever recover from the 63-point shellacking the Gamecocks put on my Vols last week. Frankly, I’m still in shock and hoping TCU and USC both win out so I can convince myself the Vols wouldn’t have made the playoff anyway.
What I do know is Spencer Rattler, who threw six touchdown passes, found his self confidence. Do I think that will translate to a road win at Clemson? No. But I do think it will translate to a road cover at Clemson.
Louisville at Kentucky -2.5 and the under 43.5
It’s been a really disappointing season for Kentucky so far.
The Wildcats, who started 4-0, have gone 2-5 since then to plummet to 6-5 on the season. Kentucky has also lost two straight home games to Vanderbilt and Georgia.
Now Louisville comes to town and the Cardinals are somehow ranked in the top 25, giving Kentucky one last chance at a bit of season redemption.
Auburn +22.5 at Alabama
It’s been a really long time since the Iron Bowl hasn’t mattered for much of anything outside the state of Alabama. Yes, the Crimson Tide can win and go to the Sugar Bowl, but while that’s a big achievement for most teams, for Bama it’s no big deal. Heck, it’s actually a big disappointment.
Meanwhile Auburn, with new momentum under Cadillac, rolls into Bryant-Denny with zero pressure and, frankly, most Tiger fans are more interested in who their new coach will be than in what happens in this game.
Ultimately, I just think this line is way too high. The Tide has only beaten two teams by more than 22.5 this year, Arkansas by 23 and Mississippi State by 24. I think Auburn keeps it inside this number and covers.
LSU at Texas A&M +10 and the under 47.5
The most Jimbo Fisher end to the season imaginable would be Texas A&M getting up off the mat and somehow pulling off a huge upset of LSU to spoil the Tigers (small) playoff heartbeat.
Which is why I love the Aggies here as a double digit home underdog.
I just feel like this game is going to be played down in the mud, with a final score of something like 20-17.
Notre Dame at USC, the over 64
Remember when we all left Notre Dame for dead after the losses to Marshall and Stanford?
Well, the Irish have won five games in a row and head out to USC with zero pressure and the chance to add a sixth straight win and lock in an impressive bowl game alongside a 9-3 record in year one for Marcus Freeman.
On the flip side USC needs two wins to make the playoff in year one with Lincoln Riley. Beat the Irish and then win the Pac-12 title game and USC will be the three or four seed in the playoff. That’s pressure.
So what happens?
Tennessee at Vanderbilt, the over 64
The Vols gave up 63 points to South Carolina, a team with virtually no offense all season long.
What felt like a potential Volunteer playoff coronation in Nashville is now a trendy underdog pick for the Commodores to win their third straight SEC game.
I’d like to say I have a good read on what kind of effort Tennessee will put forward with Joe Milton at quarterback, but after the way this defense played in Columbia I honestly have no idea what to expect.
What I am confident of, however, is that points will be scored in abundance.
There you have it, boys and girls, we’re going 15-0!
(And hopefully, at minimum, cementing our winning record as we head into conference title game weekend.)
See y’all in Columbus.