Chiefs Will End Lawrence’s Unbeaten Saturday Streak

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Jaguars vs. Chiefs, 4:30 ET

What a wild ride it was to get to this game. We have one game before we get to the AFC Championship matchup – a game that might be more hyped up than the Super Bowl at this point. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves let’s take a look at the matchup between the Jaguars and Chiefs in this Divisional Round.

The Jaguars pulled off the surprising comeback last week – they were down 27-0. This is a true story: my high school-aged son bet me $30 that the Jaguars would win the game. The entire premise for thinking that they would win was that Trevor Lawrence had never lost on a Saturday. I felt great at halftime and was talking a bunch of crap to him… Then the Chargers, well, Chargered, and fell apart. Sure there were bad calls, but they seemed like at halftime they talked about how to play the Chiefs instead of how to close out the game. The Jaguars advanced and now have to travel to Kansas City. This matchup did happen in the middle of the season and the Jaguars lost 27-10. How can they avoid that fate in this one? I’m not sure that they can, but it will start with their defense. If they can hold down Mahomes and give him unique looks they might be able to keep him at bay for a couple of quarters. Once he breaks free though, the Jaguars need to have the lead because they won’t be able to keep up with the Chiefs offensively for a full game.

The Chiefs are lucky in some ways, this should be an easier matchup for them than playing against the Chargers who have seen them over and over because they play in the same division. I expect Patrick Mahomes to search for Travis Kelce early and often against a good but not great Jacksonville defense. Also, I think that the running game will come into play against the Jaguars. The Chargers were most successful last week when they were getting Austin Eckler involved and into space. The Chiefs can replicate that part of the game plan. In the first game between these two squads, Mahomes was able to get four passing touchdowns with two going to tight ends (Kelce and Noah Gray) and two going to wid receivers (Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Tooney). Mahomes was able to connect with nine different receivers in that game and three had four or more receptions. If Kansas City can force Lawrence into more turnovers they should be able to deliver his first loss on a Saturday.

I think the Chiefs will dispose of the Jaguars rather easily in this game. If I had to, I’d take the Chiefs -8.5 on the spread. It is possible that Jacksonville keeps the game close, but I think if they don’t come out hot in the first half and ride last week’s momentum, they will be in trouble. This is a teaser game as well. It could be a good idea to tease them and the Eagles. That’s how I played it.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024

Written by David Troy

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